Expected Contract Value: AJ Green Numbers & Comparison to Other WRs

Expected Contract Value forecasts that AJ Green can expect to see about $52.27 million of the $70.176 million he is schedule to earn over the next 5 seasons.  This comes in behind Julio Jones ($57.286M [ignoring the 2020 contract year]) and Dez Bryant ($55.3M), but ahead of Demaryius Thomas ($50.511M) and TY Hilton ($44.152M).  But keep in mind that Green’s fully guaranteed money at signing ($26.75M) is well behind that of Bryant ($32M), Thomas ($35M), and Jones ($35.5M).  This goes to show that fully guaranteed money is generally overrated in contract analysis.  It has an affect on the earnings expectation of a player, but if the difference is whether or not the second year base salary is fully guaranteed, then the difference is going to be minimal.  Numbers for all of the WRs below the break:

AJ Green
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.3% $26,750,000
2016 $10,000,000 90.4% $9,038,219
2017 $10,500,000 73.1% $7,671,924
2018 $10,750,000 47.6% $5,111,914
2019 $12,176,000 30.4% $3,698,301
Subtotal $25,520,361 $26,750,000
Total $52,270,361
Julio Jones
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.9% $22,000,000
2016 98.5% $13,500,000
2017 $11,500,000 79.4% $9,125,339
2018 $10,500,000 63.1% $6,629,630
2019 $12,500,000 48.2% $6,031,021
2020 $11,426,000 27.8% $3,181,824
Subtotal $24,967,814 $35,500,000
Total $60,467,814
Dez Bryant
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 100.0% $23,000,000
2016 98.8% $9,000,000
2017 $13,000,000 95.3% $12,389,000
2018 $12,500,000 52.4% $6,550,000
2019 $12,500,000 34.9% $4,362,500
Subtotal $23,301,500 $32,000,000
Total $55,301,500
Demaryius Thomas
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.9% $22,000,000
2016 97.4% $13,000,000
2017 $8,500,000 72.7% $6,179,500
2018 $12,500,000 44.3% $5,537,500
2019 $14,000,000 27.1% $3,794,000
Subtotal $15,511,000 $35,000,000
Total $50,511,000
TY Hilton
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.9% $11,000,000
2016 $9,000,000 93.7% $8,433,000
2017 $8,000,000 86.1% $6,888,000
2018 $11,000,000 65.4% $7,194,000
2019 $13,000,000 51.4% $6,682,000
2020 $14,542,000 27.2% $3,955,424
Subtotal $33,152,424 $11,000,000
Total $44,152,424