Expected Contract Value 2.0: 2016 Expected Outcomes

The following table displays the likelihood of each player with a salary cap number of $2 million or more remaining under contract for 2016, as calculated by Expected Contract Value 2.0.  Pay cuts and retirements are considered releases for purposes of Expected Contract Value.  Players subject to 5th year team options of rookie contracts are not included.  An Expected Outcome of 100% is not actually possible, but some players are listed as such because we have rounded up to only one decimal point.  Please see the Reintroduction to Expected Contract Value for an explanation as to the methodology.

Player Team Pos Expected Outcome
Marcus Peters KC DB 100.0%
Aaron Donald STL F7 100.0%
Leonard Williams NYJ F7 100.0%
Luke Kuechly CAR F7 100.0%
Jameis Winston TB QB 100.0%
Amari Cooper OAK REC 100.0%
JJ Watt HOU F7 100.0%
Ereck Flowers NYG OL 100.0%
Kevin Johnson HOU DB 100.0%
Marcus Mariota TEN QB 100.0%
Khalil Mack OAK F7 100.0%
Vic Beasley ATL F7 100.0%
Bobby Wagner SEA F7 100.0%
Stephen Gostkowski NE KP 100.0%
CJ Mosley BAL F7 99.9%
Odell Beckham Jr NYG REC 99.9%
Chris Harris DEN DB 99.9%
Shaq Thompson CAR F7 99.9%
DeVante Parket MIA REC 99.9%
Mike Evans TB REC 99.9%
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix GB DB 99.9%
Brandon Scherff WAS OL 99.9%
Trent Williams WAS OL 99.9%
Bud Dupree PIT F7 99.9%
Andrus Peat NO OL 99.9%
Blake Bortles JAX QB 99.9%
Geno Atkins CIN F7 99.9%
Sammy Watkins BUF REC 99.9%
Patrick Peterson ARI DB 99.9%
Lane Johnson PHI OL 99.9%
Calvin Pryor NYJ DB 99.9%
Kyle Fuller CHI DB 99.9%
Julio Jones ATL REC 99.8%
Nelson Agholor PHI REC 99.8%
Jadeveon Clowney HOU F7 99.8%
Dante Fowler JAX F7 99.8%
Richard Sherman SEA DB 99.8%
Cam Newton CAR QB 99.8%
Trae Waynes MIN DB 99.8%
Ryan Shazier PIT F7 99.8%
Anthony Barr MIN F7 99.8%
Arik Armstead SF F7 99.8%
Shane Ray DEN F7 99.8%
Danny Shelton CLE F7 99.8%
Kevin White CHI REC 99.8%
Marcel Dareus BUF F7 99.8%
Brandin Cooks NO REC 99.8%
Travis Kelce KC REC 99.8%
Tyron Smith DAL OL 99.7%
Russell Wilson SEA QB 99.7%
Zach Ertz PHI REC 99.7%
Dan Bailey DAL KP 99.7%
Mike Iupati ARI OL 99.7%
Jake Matthews ATL OL 99.6%
Eric Ebron DET REC 99.5%
Todd Gurley STL RB 99.5%
Ndamukong Suh MIA F7 99.5%
Whitney Mercilus HOU F7 99.4%
Mike Daniels GB F7 99.3%
Jimmy Smith BAL DB 99.3%
Jeremy Maclin KC REC 99.3%
Greg Robinson STL OL 99.3%
Derek Wolfe DEN F7 99.3%
NaVorro Bowman SF F7 99.3%
Ryan Kerrigan WAS F7 99.3%
Ezekial Ansah DET F7 99.3%
Jason Verrett SD DB 99.2%
Rob Gronkowski NE REC 99.2%
Deone Bucannon ARI DB 99.2%
Tyrone Crawford DAL F7 99.2%
Zack Martin DAL OL 99.1%
Jerry Hughes BUF F7 99.1%
Mychal Kendricks PHI F7 99.1%
Taylor Lewan TEN OL 99.1%
Demaryius Thomas DEN REC 99.1%
Melvin Gordon SD RB 99.0%
Cameron Erving CLE OL 99.0%
Justin Houston KC F7 99.0%
Cameron Heyward PIT F7 98.9%
Antonio Brown PIT REC 98.9%
Alex Smith KC QB 98.8%
Ryan Tannehill MIA QB 98.7%
Greg Olsen CAR REC 98.7%
AJ Green CIN REC 98.7%
Marcus Gilbert PIT OL 98.7%
Devin McCourty NE DB 98.7%
Cameron Jordan NO F7 98.6%
Johnny Manziel CLE QB 98.6%
Thomas Davis CAR F7 98.5%
Johnny Hekker STL KP 98.5%
Andrew Whitworth CIN OL 98.4%
Carlos Dunlap CIN F7 98.4%
KJ Wright SEA F7 98.2%
Lavonte David TB F7 98.2%
Byron Maxwell PHI DB 98.2%
Bryan Bulaga GB OL 98.2%
Steven Hauschka SEA KP 98.2%
Charles Clay BUF REC 98.1%
Marshal Yanda BAL OL 98.0%
Clint Boling CIN OL 97.9%
Jarvis Jones PIT F7 97.9%
Darrelle Revis NYJ DB 97.9%
Brett Kern TEN KP 97.7%
Jared Veldheer ARI OL 97.7%
Allen Bailey KC F7 97.6%
Earl Thomas SEA DB 97.6%
Justin Gilbert CLE DB 97.5%
Jermey Parnell JAX OL 97.4%
Vinny Curry PHI F7 97.4%
Ryan Succop TEN KP 97.2%
Derek Newton HOU OL 97.0%
James Carpenter NYJ OL 97.0%
Marcus Gilchrist NYJ DB 97.0%
Cedric Ogbuehi CIN OL 96.9%
Kareem Jackson HOU DB 96.9%
Randall Cobb GB REC 96.9%
Davon House JAX DB 96.8%
Dee Ford KC F7 96.8%
TY Hilton IND REC 96.7%
LeSean McCoy BUF RB 96.7%
Mark Ingram NO RB 96.6%
Brandon Fusco MIN OL 96.6%
Eli Manning NYG QB 96.6%
Larry Fitzgerald ARI REC 96.5%
Ja’Wuan James MIA OL 96.4%
Jurrell Casey TEN F7 96.4%
Luke Joeckel JAX OL 96.3%
Buster Skrine NYJ DB 96.3%
Andy Dalton CIN QB 96.3%
Dez Bryant DAL REC 96.3%
Carson Palmer ARI QB 96.1%
Ryan Kalil CAR OL 96.0%
DeAndre Hopkins HOU REC 95.9%
Anthony Castonzo IND OL 95.9%
Sam Koch BAL KP 95.9%
Brian Cushing HOU F7 95.9%
Alex Mack CLE OL 95.7%
Ron Parker KC DB 95.7%
Ben Roethlisberger PIT QB 95.7%
Tavon Austin STL REC 95.6%
Star Lotulelei CAR F7 95.6%
Marcus Smith PHI F7 95.6%
Kenny Vaccaro NO DB 95.5%
Eric Reid SF DB 95.5%
Mike Pouncey MIA OL 95.4%
Dwayne Harris NYG REC 95.4%
Kyle Rudolph MIN REC 95.4%
Corey Liuget SD F7 95.4%
Jared Odrick JAX F7 95.1%
Matt Prater DET KP 95.0%
Brandon Graham PHI F7 94.9%
Vontaze Burfict CIN F7 94.8%
Darqueze Dennard CIN DB 94.7%
DeMarco Murray PHI RB 94.6%
Michael Johnson CIN F7 94.5%
Eric Fisher KC OL 94.5%
Dan Williams OAK F7 94.3%
Matt Ryan ATL QB 94.2%
Everson Griffen MIN F7 94.1%
Jarius Wright MIN REC 94.1%
Clay Matthews GB F7 94.0%
Aaron Rodgers GB QB 94.0%
Jason Kelce PHI OL 93.9%
Justin Pugh NYG OL 93.9%
Julius Thomas JAX REC 93.7%
Jay Cutler CHI QB 93.7%
Rodney Hudson OAK OL 93.6%
Brent Celek PHI REC 93.6%
Michael Bennett SEA F7 93.4%
Golden Tate DET REC 93.2%
Philip Rivers SD QB 93.2%
Justin Bethel ARI DB 93.1%
Desmond Trufant ATL DB 93.1%
Travis Frederick DAL OL 93.0%
Cliff Avril SEA F7 93.0%
Linval Joseph MIN F7 92.8%
Sheldon Richardson NYJ F7 92.7%
Sean Lee DAL F7 92.5%
Pat McAfee IND KP 92.4%
Gerald McCoy TB F7 92.4%
Sharrif Floyd MIN F7 92.4%
Mike Mitchell PIT DB 92.3%
Graham Gano CAR KP 92.1%
Robert Quinn STL F7 91.8%
Joe Thomas CLE OL 91.8%
DJ Humphries ARI OL 91.7%
DJ Fluker SD OL 91.6%
Sylvester Williams DEN F7 91.6%
Kelvin Benjamin CAR REC 91.3%
Orlando Franklin SD OL 91.3%
Dan Carpenter BUF KP 91.1%
James Laurinaitis STL F7 90.9%
Josh Sitton GB OL 90.8%
Matt Stafford DET QB 90.6%
Austin Howard OAK OL 90.6%
Malcolm Smith OAK F7 90.5%
Andy Levitre ATL OL 90.4%
Tom Brady NE QB 90.2%
Derrick Morgan TEN F7 89.6%
Donald Butler SD F7 89.4%
David Harris NYJ F7 89.3%
Vontae Davis IND DB 89.1%
Torrey Smith SF REC 89.0%
Orlando Scandrick DAL DB 88.9%
Connor Barwin PHI F7 88.9%
Calais Campbell ARI F7 88.9%
Akeem Ayers STL F7 88.7%
Eric Decker NYJ REC 88.6%
Zach Strief NO OL 88.5%
Matt Bosher ATL KP 88.5%
Pernell McPhee CHI F7 88.3%
Josh Mauga KC F7 88.2%
Aqib Talib DEN DB 88.0%
Chance Warmack TEN OL 88.0%
Brandon Flowers SD DB 87.5%
Da’Norris Searcy TEN DB 87.0%
Tyler Eifert CIN REC 86.9%
Rey Maualuga CIN F7 86.9%
Michael Crabtree OAK REC 86.8%
DJ Hayden OAK DB 86.8%
Xavier Rhodes MIN DB 86.6%
Kyle Long CHI OL 86.0%
Gary Barnidge CLE REC 85.9%
Patrick Chung NE DB 85.9%
Morgan Burnett GB DB 85.9%
Cole Beasley DAL REC 85.7%
Jairus Byrd NO DB 85.7%
Zane Beadles JAX OL 85.6%
Tony Romo DAL QB 85.5%
Will Hill BAL DB 85.4%
Matt Elam BAL DB 85.4%
Alec Ogletree STL F7 85.2%
Joe Staley SF OL 85.0%
Nick Foles STL QB 85.0%
Aaron Williams BUF DB 84.9%
Doug Baldwin SEA REC 84.5%
Chris Culliver WAS DB 84.5%
Sam Shields GB DB 84.2%
Arthur Moats PIT F7 84.1%
Eric Wood BUF OL 83.7%
Andy Lee CLE KP 83.7%
Reshad Jones MIA DB 82.9%
Shane Vereen NYG RB 82.9%
Brooks Reed ATL F7 82.9%
DRC NYG DB 82.5%
Robbie Gould CHI KP 82.2%
Joe Flacco BAL QB 81.2%
Breno Giacomini NYJ OL 80.8%
Matt Slauson CHI OL 80.8%
Calvin Johnson DET REC 80.5%
EJ Manuel BUF QB 79.8%
JT Thomas NYG F7 79.1%
Rahim Moore HOU DB 79.1%
Kendall Langford IND F7 78.9%
John Hughes CLE F7 78.8%
Lawrence Timmons PIT F7 78.5%
Elvis Dumervil BAL F7 78.1%
Chris Baker WAS F7 78.1%
Brian Orakpo TEN F7 78.0%
Joe Haden CLE DB 77.7%
Colin Kaepernick SF QB 77.3%
Max Unger NO OL 77.1%
Jonathan Cooper ARI OL 76.1%
CJ Spiller NO RB 76.0%
Stephen Paea WAS F7 76.0%
Tyson Jackson ATL F7 75.6%
Kam Chancellor SEA DB 75.4%
Roy Miller JAX F7 75.3%
Paul Fanaika KC OL 74.7%
Tramaine Brock SF DB 74.2%
Tyson Alualu JAX F7 74.0%
Domata Peko CIN F7 74.0%
Brandon Marshall NYJ REC 73.6%
Michael Oher CAR OL 73.3%
Sebastian Janikowski OAK KP 73.0%
Julian Edelman NE REC 72.7%
Glover Quinn DET DB 72.4%
Thomas Morstead NO KP 71.8%
Rob Ninkovich NE F7 71.6%
Branden Albert MIA OL 71.3%
Ryan Mathews PHI RB 71.2%
Koa Misi MIA F7 71.1%
Jonathan Stewart CAR RB 70.7%
Kevin Huber CIN KP 69.1%
Dion Jordan MIA F7 69.0%
Brian Robison MIN F7 69.0%
Wesley Woodyard TEN F7 68.7%
Johnathan Joseph HOU DB 68.7%
D’Brickashaw Ferguson NYJ OL 68.4%
TJ Ward DEN DB 68.3%
Barkevious Mingo CLE F7 67.4%
Nate Solder NE OL 67.3%
Adrian Peterson MIN RB 67.0%
Earl Mitchell MIA DB 66.6%
Jeremy Kerley NYJ REC 66.6%
Corey Graham BUF DB 66.5%
DeAndre Levy DET F7 66.3%
Darian Stewart DEN DB 65.5%
Eddie Royal CHI REC 65.3%
Ted Ginn CAR REC 65.3%
Dee Milliner NYJ DB 65.3%
Malcolm Jenkins PHI DB 64.5%
Maurkice Pouncey PIT OL 64.2%
Jonathan Casillas NYG F7 64.1%
Datone Jones GB F7 64.0%
Dustin Colquitt KC KP 63.4%
Perry Riley WAS F7 62.8%
Perrish Cox TEN DB 62.7%
King Dunlap SD OL 62.6%
Mario Williams BUF F7 62.0%
Danny Amendola NE REC 61.9%
Emmanuel Sanders DEN REC 61.4%
TJ Lang GB OL 61.3%
Justin Durant ATL F7 61.1%
Lamarr Houston CHI F7 61.0%
Cordarrelle Patterson MIN REC 60.7%
Paul Kruger CLE F7 60.2%
Drew Brees NO QB 59.5%
Joe Reitz IND OL 59.4%
Jabaal Sheard NE F7 58.0%
Ricky Jean-Francois WAS F7 57.9%
D’Qwell Jackson IND F7 57.6%
Doug Free DAL OL 57.5%
Duane Brown HOU OL 57.2%
Dennis Pitta BAL REC 56.9%
Rodger Saffold STL OL 56.8%
Desmond Bryant CLE F7 56.4%
Dan Skuta JAX F7 56.0%
Steve Johnson SD REC 56.0%
Alan Branch NE F7 55.8%
Curtis Lofton OAK F7 55.6%
Jimmy Graham SEA REC 55.4%
Bjoern Werner IND F7 55.2%
Brandon Carr DAL DB 55.2%
Lance Kendricks STL REC 55.1%
Paul Posluszny JAX F7 55.0%
Jahri Evans NO OL 54.9%
Ben Grubbs KC OL 54.8%
Sebastian Vollmer NE OL 54.8%
Geoff Schwartz NYG OL 54.6%
Jerod Mayo NE F7 54.3%
Brandon Browner NO DB 54.3%
Jerome Felton BUF RB 54.3%
Antonio Cromartie NYJ DB 54.1%
Barry Church DAL DB 53.8%
Paul Soliai ATL F7 53.7%
Daryl Smith BAL F7 53.4%
Manny Lawson BUF F7 53.3%
Blaine Gabbert SF QB 53.2%
Vance Walker DEN F7 51.9%
Eugene Monroe BAL OL 51.6%
Louis Vasquez DEN OL 51.5%
Marshawn Lynch SEA RB 51.4%
Cortez Allen PIT DB 51.2%
Jason Peters PHI OL 51.2%
Marcus Cannon NE OL 51.1%
Rashad Jennings NYG RB 51.0%
Bruce Carter TB F7 51.0%
Jeremy Zuttah BAL OL 50.2%
Anthony Sherman KC RB 50.2%
Pierre Garcon WAS REC 50.1%
Victor Cruz NYG REC 49.6%
Britton Colquitt DEN KP 48.4%
Jared Cook STL REC 48.3%
Jamaal Charles KC RB 48.3%
Brian Hoyer HOU QB 48.3%
Lardarius Webb BAL DB 47.5%
Nick Folk NYJ KP 47.5%
Riley Cooper PHI REC 47.5%
Donnie Jones PHI KP 47.0%
Kenny Britt STL REC 46.4%
Andre Roberts WAS REC 46.3%
Corey Peters ARI F7 46.0%
Josh McCown CLE QB 46.0%
Mike Scifres SD KP 45.9%
Virgil Green DEN REC 44.9%
Brandon LaFell NE REC 44.4%
Ed Dickson CAR REC 43.3%
Nate Irving IND F7 42.4%
Cecil Shorts HOU REC 42.3%
DeSean Jackson WAS REC 41.6%
Mike Wallace MIN REC 41.4%
Erik Walden IND F7 41.2%
Jordy Nelson GB REC 40.8%
Dexter McCluster TEN REC 40.6%
Frank Gore IND RB 40.4%
George Johnson TB F7 40.3%
Justin Forsett BAL RB 40.1%
Nick Mangold NYJ OL 39.8%
Daryl Washington ARI F7 39.7%
Delanie Walker TEN REC 39.6%
Jon Asamoah ATL OL 38.5%
Mark Sanchez PHI QB 38.0%
Willie Young CHI F7 37.8%
Karl Klug TEN F7 37.8%
Charles Johnson CAR F7 37.7%
Alterraun Verner TB DB 37.5%
Ahmad Brooks SF F7 37.4%
Shaun Suisham PIT KP 37.1%
Jordan Cameron MIA REC 35.9%
Lee Smith OAK REC 35.6%
Stephen Tulloch DET F7 35.6%
Donte Whitner CLE DB 35.1%
Arthur Jones IND F7 35.0%
Captain Munnerlyn MIN DB 34.7%
Martellus Bennett CHI REC 34.6%
Sergio Brown JAX DB 33.6%
DeMeco Ryans PHI F7 33.6%
Nate Allen OAK DB 33.5%
Roddy White ATL REC 33.5%
William Moore ATL DB 33.1%
Vince Wilfork HOU F7 32.9%
Tramon Williams CLE DB 32.8%
Tom Johnson MIN F7 32.5%
Owen Daniels DEN REC 31.8%
Karlos Dansby CLE F7 31.7%
Jason Hatcher WAS F7 31.6%
Phil Loadholdt MIN OL 31.4%
Clinton McDonald TB F7 30.9%
Shawn Lauvao WAS OL 30.6%
Darren McFadden DAL RB 30.4%
Gosder Cherilus TB OL 30.2%
Dannell Ellerbe NO F7 29.9%
Dashon Goldson WAS DB 29.8%
Jason Witten DAL REC 27.6%
Brent Grimes MIA DB 27.6%
Akeem Dent HOU F7 26.7%
Keenan Lewis NO DB 26.6%
Kyle Arrington BAL DB 26.1%
Sen’Derrick Marks JAX F7 25.7%
Harry Douglas TEN REC 25.6%
Glenn Dorsey SF F7 25.5%
Scott Chandler NE REC 25.4%
Randy Starks CLE F7 25.3%
Evan Dietrich-Smith TB OL 24.4%
Brandon Pettigrew DET REC 24.0%
Roy Helu OAK RB 23.8%
Brian Hartline CLE REC 23.7%
Brice McCain MIA DB 23.2%
Michael Griffin TEN DB 23.1%
Julius Peppers GB F7 22.8%
Logan Mankins TB OL 21.5%
Vincent Jackson TB REC 21.1%
Danny Woodhead SD RB 19.9%
Kyle Williams BUF F7 19.8%
Chris Long STL F7 19.2%
DeAngelo Hall WAS DB 18.7%
Jermon Bushrod CHI OL 18.1%
CJ Wilson DET F7 18.0%
Andre Johnson IND REC 17.8%
David Hawthorne NO F7 16.9%
DeMarcus Ware DEN F7 16.7%
Terrell Suggs BAL F7 16.7%
Marques Colston NO REC 16.2%
Joique Bell DET RB 16.2%
Matt Bryant ATL KP 15.9%
Jared Allen CAR F7 15.6%
Jason McCourty TEN DB 15.4%
Garrett Graham HOU REC 14.8%
Dwayne Bowe CLE REC 14.8%
Kory Lichtensteiger WAS OL 14.4%
Heath Miller PIT REC 14.3%
Erik Pears SF OL 14.2%
DeAngelo Williams PIT RB 13.8%
Arian Foster HOU RB 13.6%
Jim Dray CLE REC 13.2%
Anthony Fasano TEN REC 11.6%
Jon Beason NYG F7 11.1%
Kraig Urbik BUF OL 10.8%
Toby Gerhart JAX RB 10.5%
Leodis McKelvin BUF DB 10.4%
Trent Cole IND F7 10.4%
Shaun Hill MIN QB 9.9%
Robert Mathis IND F7 9.7%
Chris Canty BAL F7 9.6%
Jonathan Babineaux ATL F7 9.4%
Antoine Bethea SF DB 9.3%
John Sullivan MIN OL 9.3%
Ryan Clady DEN OL 9.2%
Darius Butler IND DB 9.0%
Chris Clemons JAX F7 8.8%
Marcel Reece OAK RB 8.2%
Will Beatty NYG OL 8.2%
Darren Sproles PHI RB 8.0%
Peyton Manning DEN QB 7.1%
Antrel Rolle CHI DB 7.1%
Greg Jennings MIA REC 7.0%
Ropati Pitoitua TEN F7 6.9%
Steve Smith BAL REC 6.1%
Cameron Wake MIA F7 6.1%
Devin Hester ATL REC 5.4%
Cory Redding ARI F7 4.2%
Dwan Edwards CAR F7 2.4%
 

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nick Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate M&A associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nick Barton is  a junior at the McDonough School Business at  Georgetown University.  He is majoring in Finance and Operations and Information Management. Nick currently interns with an NFL team . His prior work experience includes interning with CollegeSplits and Dynamic Sports Solutions, and working as a research assistant for the Center of Applied Research of the Apostolate.