Expected Contract Value Calculations: Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, Lane Johnson & Vinny Curry

Expected Contract Value calculations (using ECV 1.1) for the first handful of large contracts signed this offseason:

Zach Ertz
Stated Value: $43,638,527
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201699.6%$9,138,527
201797.6%$4,000,000
2018$8,000,00091.8%$7,345,914
2019$7,500,00060.0%$4,502,508
2020$7,250,00042.6%$3,085,812
2021$7,750,00030.9%$2,392,200
Subtotal$17,326,433$13,138,527
Expected Contract Value:$30,464,960 (70%)
 
Zach Ertz
YearCap NumberProbabilityDead MoneyProbabilityExpected Cap Number
2016$3,311,56399.6%$13,711,5630.4%$3,353,163
2017$5,600,00097.6%$10,400,0002.4%$5,715,200
2018$9,600,00091.8%$10,600,0008.2%$9,682,000
2019$9,100,00060.0%$3,200,00040.0%$6,740,000
2020$8,850,00042.6%$1,600,00057.4%$4,688,500
2021$7,750,00030.9%$069.1%$2,394,750
Total:   $32,573,613
 

Zach Ertz - Per Season

Zach Ertz - Cumulative

Travis Kelce
Stated Value: $47,646,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2016$129,00098.8%$127,426$10,517,000
2017$3,450,00094.7%$3,265,951
2018$8,050,00074.7%$6,017,178
2019$8,000,00057.1%$4,569,585
2020$8,500,00034.8%$2,955,665
2021$9,000,00024.5%$2,205,892
Subtotal$19,141,696$10,517,000
Expected Contract Value:$29,658,696 (62%)
 
Travis Kelce
YearCap NumberProbabilityDead MoneyProbabilityExpected Cap Number
2016$2,948,22698.8%$10,692,8261.2%$3,041,161
2017$5,418,40094.7%$7,873,6005.3%$5,548,526
2018$10,018,40074.7%$5,905,20025.3%$8,977,761
2019$9,968,40057.1%$3,936,80042.9%$7,380,843
2020$10,468,40034.8%$1,968,00065.2%$4,926,139
2021$9,000,00024.5%$075.5%$2,205,000
Total:   $32,079,430
 

Travis Kelce - Per Season

Travis Kelce - Cumulative

Lane Johnson
Stated Value: $59,362,242
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201699.4%$13,112,242
2017$250,00097.7%$244,209$7,750,000
2018$10,250,00086.8%$8,896,731
2019$10,850,00072.5%$7,865,301
2020$8,835,00057.9%$5,113,729
2021$8,315,00043.0%$3,573,326
Subtotal$25,693,297$20,862,242
Expected Contract Value:$46,555,539 (78%)
 
Lane Johnson
YearCap NumberProbabilityDead MoneyProbabilityExpected Cap Number
2016$8,128,38899.4%$20,862,2420.6%$8,204,791
2017$10,000,00097.7%$15,750,0002.3%$10,132,250
2018$12,250,00086.8%$6,000,00013.2%$11,425,000
2019$12,850,00072.5%$4,000,00027.5%$10,416,250
2020$10,835,00057.9%$2,000,00042.1%$7,115,465
2021$8,315,00043.0%$057.0%$3,575,450
Total:   $50,869,206
 

Lane Johnson - Per Season

Lane Johnson - Cumulative

Vinny Curry
Stated Value: $46,250,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201699.4%$11,000,000
201796.0%$7,000,000
2018$9,000,00072.0%$6,483,211
2019$9,250,00047.9%$4,427,033
2020$10,000,00023.4%$2,339,896
Subtotal$13,250,140$18,000,000
Expected Contract Value:$31,250,140 (68%)
 
Vinny Curry
YearCap NumberProbabilityDead MoneyProbabilityExpected Cap Number
2016$3,000,00099.4%$18,000,0000.6%$3,090,000
2017$9,000,00096.0%$15,000,0004.0%$9,240,000
2018$11,000,00072.0%$6,000,00028.0%$9,600,000
2019$11,250,00047.9%$4,000,00052.1%$7,472,750
2020$12,000,00023.4%$2,000,00076.6%$4,340,000
Total:   $33,742,750
 

Vinny Curry - Per Season

Vinny Curry - Cumulative

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a junior at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu