Expected Contract Value Calculations: Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, Lane Johnson & Vinny Curry

Expected Contract Value calculations (using ECV 1.1) for the first handful of large contracts signed this offseason:

Zach Ertz
Stated Value: $43,638,527
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 99.6% $9,138,527
2017 97.6% $4,000,000
2018 $8,000,000 91.8% $7,345,914
2019 $7,500,000 60.0% $4,502,508
2020 $7,250,000 42.6% $3,085,812
2021 $7,750,000 30.9% $2,392,200
Subtotal $17,326,433 $13,138,527
Expected Contract Value: $30,464,960 (70%)
 
Zach Ertz
Year Cap Number Probability Dead Money Probability Expected Cap Number
2016 $3,311,563 99.6% $13,711,563 0.4% $3,353,163
2017 $5,600,000 97.6% $10,400,000 2.4% $5,715,200
2018 $9,600,000 91.8% $10,600,000 8.2% $9,682,000
2019 $9,100,000 60.0% $3,200,000 40.0% $6,740,000
2020 $8,850,000 42.6% $1,600,000 57.4% $4,688,500
2021 $7,750,000 30.9% $0 69.1% $2,394,750
Total:       $32,573,613
 

Zach Ertz - Per Season

Zach Ertz - Cumulative

Travis Kelce
Stated Value: $47,646,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 $129,000 98.8% $127,426 $10,517,000
2017 $3,450,000 94.7% $3,265,951
2018 $8,050,000 74.7% $6,017,178
2019 $8,000,000 57.1% $4,569,585
2020 $8,500,000 34.8% $2,955,665
2021 $9,000,000 24.5% $2,205,892
Subtotal $19,141,696 $10,517,000
Expected Contract Value: $29,658,696 (62%)
 
Travis Kelce
Year Cap Number Probability Dead Money Probability Expected Cap Number
2016 $2,948,226 98.8% $10,692,826 1.2% $3,041,161
2017 $5,418,400 94.7% $7,873,600 5.3% $5,548,526
2018 $10,018,400 74.7% $5,905,200 25.3% $8,977,761
2019 $9,968,400 57.1% $3,936,800 42.9% $7,380,843
2020 $10,468,400 34.8% $1,968,000 65.2% $4,926,139
2021 $9,000,000 24.5% $0 75.5% $2,205,000
Total:       $32,079,430
 

Travis Kelce - Per Season

Travis Kelce - Cumulative

Lane Johnson
Stated Value: $59,362,242
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 99.4% $13,112,242
2017 $250,000 97.7% $244,209 $7,750,000
2018 $10,250,000 86.8% $8,896,731
2019 $10,850,000 72.5% $7,865,301
2020 $8,835,000 57.9% $5,113,729
2021 $8,315,000 43.0% $3,573,326
Subtotal $25,693,297 $20,862,242
Expected Contract Value: $46,555,539 (78%)
 
Lane Johnson
Year Cap Number Probability Dead Money Probability Expected Cap Number
2016 $8,128,388 99.4% $20,862,242 0.6% $8,204,791
2017 $10,000,000 97.7% $15,750,000 2.3% $10,132,250
2018 $12,250,000 86.8% $6,000,000 13.2% $11,425,000
2019 $12,850,000 72.5% $4,000,000 27.5% $10,416,250
2020 $10,835,000 57.9% $2,000,000 42.1% $7,115,465
2021 $8,315,000 43.0% $0 57.0% $3,575,450
Total:       $50,869,206
 

Lane Johnson - Per Season

Lane Johnson - Cumulative

Vinny Curry
Stated Value: $46,250,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 99.4% $11,000,000
2017 96.0% $7,000,000
2018 $9,000,000 72.0% $6,483,211
2019 $9,250,000 47.9% $4,427,033
2020 $10,000,000 23.4% $2,339,896
Subtotal $13,250,140 $18,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $31,250,140 (68%)
 
Vinny Curry
Year Cap Number Probability Dead Money Probability Expected Cap Number
2016 $3,000,000 99.4% $18,000,000 0.6% $3,090,000
2017 $9,000,000 96.0% $15,000,000 4.0% $9,240,000
2018 $11,000,000 72.0% $6,000,000 28.0% $9,600,000
2019 $11,250,000 47.9% $4,000,000 52.1% $7,472,750
2020 $12,000,000 23.4% $2,000,000 76.6% $4,340,000
Total:       $33,742,750
 

Vinny Curry - Per Season

Vinny Curry - Cumulative

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a junior at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu