Since we were having some draft discussions today about value I made a small post on Twitter looking at how a specific picks salary aligned within the overall market and had requests for more picks so I figured I may as well do a post looking at this.
What we are doing here is taking our salary estimates for each specific draft slot to see where the salary slots within the market. For example the top pick in the draft will sign a contract worth about $9.9 million a year. If the player is a QB he would rank 18th among all QBs in the NFL, however if he was a RB he would rank 11th. When we view draft picks in this way we can better visualize just how good the player has to be to at the very least justify the rookie contract. Here is the ranking for each position.
| Pick | Est. APY | QB | EDGE | WR | LT | IDL | CB | RT | G | LB | S | TE | RB | C |
| 1 | $9,939,509 | 18 | 25 | 34 | 18 | 26 | 21 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 11 | 8 |
| 2 | $9,498,224 | 18 | 26 | 34 | 19 | 28 | 22 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 16 | 12 | 11 | 9 |
| 3 | $9,217,406 | 18 | 27 | 34 | 19 | 28 | 22 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 16 | 12 | 11 | 9 |
| 4 | $8,896,473 | 20 | 28 | 34 | 19 | 28 | 22 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 18 | 12 | 11 | 9 |
| 5 | $8,334,859 | 22 | 30 | 36 | 19 | 29 | 27 | 12 | 17 | 12 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 9 |
| 6 | $7,331,938 | 25 | 33 | 41 | 20 | 32 | 30 | 13 | 20 | 13 | 22 | 17 | 11 | 9 |
| 7 | $6,529,597 | 27 | 35 | 42 | 21 | 37 | 34 | 15 | 21 | 17 | 25 | 21 | 12 | 9 |
| 8 | $5,727,242 | 27 | 36 | 43 | 22 | 42 | 36 | 18 | 22 | 23 | 30 | 25 | 15 | 12 |
| 9 | $5,687,140 | 27 | 36 | 43 | 22 | 42 | 36 | 18 | 22 | 23 | 30 | 25 | 15 | 12 |
| 10 | $5,466,498 | 28 | 39 | 43 | 22 | 44 | 36 | 18 | 23 | 25 | 30 | 25 | 15 | 13 |
| 11 | $5,125,489 | 28 | 39 | 45 | 23 | 44 | 39 | 18 | 24 | 26 | 30 | 25 | 16 | 15 |
| 12 | $4,644,086 | 32 | 42 | 52 | 24 | 47 | 39 | 20 | 25 | 30 | 33 | 26 | 16 | 17 |
| 13 | $4,523,736 | 32 | 42 | 52 | 24 | 47 | 39 | 21 | 25 | 30 | 33 | 26 | 16 | 17 |
| 14 | $4,323,154 | 33 | 44 | 53 | 25 | 48 | 41 | 21 | 26 | 32 | 34 | 27 | 17 | 18 |
| 15 | $4,242,920 | 33 | 45 | 53 | 27 | 51 | 41 | 21 | 28 | 33 | 35 | 27 | 17 | 18 |
| 16 | $4,002,216 | 33 | 45 | 53 | 28 | 53 | 41 | 22 | 28 | 33 | 36 | 27 | 17 | 19 |
| 17 | $3,921,992 | 37 | 46 | 54 | 28 | 54 | 44 | 23 | 32 | 35 | 37 | 27 | 18 | 19 |
| 18 | $3,821,694 | 38 | 46 | 54 | 28 | 56 | 44 | 23 | 32 | 35 | 37 | 28 | 18 | 19 |
| 19 | $3,761,524 | 38 | 46 | 56 | 28 | 56 | 44 | 23 | 32 | 35 | 37 | 28 | 18 | 19 |
| 20 | $3,741,458 | 38 | 46 | 56 | 28 | 56 | 44 | 23 | 32 | 35 | 37 | 28 | 19 | 19 |
| 21 | $3,721,407 | 38 | 46 | 56 | 28 | 56 | 44 | 23 | 32 | 35 | 37 | 28 | 19 | 19 |
| 22 | $3,681,290 | 38 | 46 | 56 | 28 | 56 | 44 | 23 | 33 | 35 | 37 | 28 | 19 | 19 |
| 23 | $3,641,174 | 38 | 46 | 56 | 28 | 56 | 44 | 23 | 33 | 36 | 37 | 28 | 19 | 19 |
| 24 | $3,560,940 | 38 | 46 | 58 | 28 | 59 | 45 | 23 | 34 | 36 | 37 | 28 | 19 | 19 |
| 25 | $3,520,817 | 38 | 46 | 58 | 29 | 59 | 45 | 23 | 34 | 36 | 37 | 28 | 19 | 19 |
| 26 | $3,480,697 | 40 | 48 | 60 | 30 | 61 | 49 | 23 | 35 | 41 | 38 | 28 | 21 | 19 |
| 27 | $3,440,590 | 40 | 48 | 60 | 30 | 61 | 49 | 23 | 35 | 43 | 38 | 28 | 21 | 19 |
| 28 | $3,420,523 | 40 | 48 | 61 | 30 | 61 | 50 | 23 | 35 | 43 | 38 | 28 | 21 | 19 |
| 29 | $3,259,569 | 40 | 53 | 63 | 31 | 63 | 52 | 25 | 35 | 45 | 38 | 29 | 22 | 20 |
| 30 | $3,174,331 | 41 | 53 | 64 | 33 | 65 | 54 | 25 | 36 | 47 | 40 | 29 | 23 | 20 |
| 31 | $3,102,925 | 42 | 54 | 66 | 33 | 65 | 55 | 25 | 37 | 47 | 41 | 31 | 23 | 20 |
| 32 | $3,056,952 | 44 | 54 | 66 | 33 | 65 | 55 | 25 | 38 | 48 | 41 | 31 | 23 | 20 |
Nick made a good point and later adjusted the numbers for starters in the NFL. With that in mind here are how the numbers look if we rank by percentile among starters.
| Pick | Est. APY | QB | EDGE | WR | LT | IDL | CB | RT | G | LB | S | TE | RB | C |
| 1 | $9,939,509 | 43.8% | 60.9% | 64.6% | 43.8% | 59.4% | 78.1% | 65.6% | 79.7% | 82.8% | 76.6% | 62.5% | 65.6% | 75.0% |
| 2 | $9,498,224 | 43.8% | 59.4% | 64.6% | 40.6% | 56.3% | 77.1% | 62.5% | 79.7% | 82.8% | 75.0% | 62.5% | 65.6% | 71.9% |
| 3 | $9,217,406 | 43.8% | 57.8% | 64.6% | 40.6% | 56.3% | 77.1% | 62.5% | 79.7% | 81.3% | 75.0% | 62.5% | 65.6% | 71.9% |
| 4 | $8,896,473 | 37.5% | 56.3% | 64.6% | 40.6% | 56.3% | 77.1% | 62.5% | 78.1% | 81.3% | 71.9% | 62.5% | 65.6% | 71.9% |
| 5 | $8,334,859 | 31.3% | 53.1% | 62.5% | 40.6% | 54.7% | 71.9% | 62.5% | 73.4% | 81.3% | 70.3% | 62.5% | 65.6% | 71.9% |
| 6 | $7,331,938 | 21.9% | 48.4% | 57.3% | 37.5% | 50.0% | 68.8% | 59.4% | 68.8% | 79.7% | 65.6% | 46.9% | 65.6% | 71.9% |
| 7 | $6,529,597 | 15.6% | 45.3% | 56.3% | 34.4% | 42.2% | 64.6% | 53.1% | 67.2% | 73.4% | 60.9% | 34.4% | 62.5% | 71.9% |
| 8 | $5,727,242 | 15.6% | 43.8% | 55.2% | 31.3% | 34.4% | 62.5% | 43.8% | 65.6% | 64.1% | 53.1% | 21.9% | 53.1% | 62.5% |
| 9 | $5,687,140 | 15.6% | 43.8% | 55.2% | 31.3% | 34.4% | 62.5% | 43.8% | 65.6% | 64.1% | 53.1% | 21.9% | 53.1% | 62.5% |
| 10 | $5,466,498 | 12.5% | 39.1% | 55.2% | 31.3% | 31.3% | 62.5% | 43.8% | 64.1% | 60.9% | 53.1% | 21.9% | 53.1% | 59.4% |
| 11 | $5,125,489 | 12.5% | 39.1% | 53.1% | 28.1% | 31.3% | 59.4% | 43.8% | 62.5% | 59.4% | 53.1% | 21.9% | 50.0% | 53.1% |
| 12 | $4,644,086 | 0.0% | 34.4% | 45.8% | 25.0% | 26.6% | 59.4% | 37.5% | 60.9% | 53.1% | 48.4% | 18.8% | 50.0% | 46.9% |
| 13 | $4,523,736 | 0.0% | 34.4% | 45.8% | 25.0% | 26.6% | 59.4% | 34.4% | 60.9% | 53.1% | 48.4% | 18.8% | 50.0% | 46.9% |
| 14 | $4,323,154 | BU | 31.3% | 44.8% | 21.9% | 25.0% | 57.3% | 34.4% | 59.4% | 50.0% | 46.9% | 15.6% | 46.9% | 43.8% |
| 15 | $4,242,920 | BU | 29.7% | 44.8% | 15.6% | 20.3% | 57.3% | 34.4% | 56.3% | 48.4% | 45.3% | 15.6% | 46.9% | 43.8% |
| 16 | $4,002,216 | BU | 29.7% | 44.8% | 12.5% | 17.2% | 57.3% | 31.3% | 56.3% | 48.4% | 43.8% | 15.6% | 46.9% | 40.6% |
| 17 | $3,921,992 | BU | 28.1% | 43.8% | 12.5% | 15.6% | 54.2% | 28.1% | 50.0% | 45.3% | 42.2% | 15.6% | 43.8% | 40.6% |
| 18 | $3,821,694 | BU | 28.1% | 43.8% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 54.2% | 28.1% | 50.0% | 45.3% | 42.2% | 12.5% | 43.8% | 40.6% |
| 19 | $3,761,524 | BU | 28.1% | 41.7% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 54.2% | 28.1% | 50.0% | 45.3% | 42.2% | 12.5% | 43.8% | 40.6% |
| 20 | $3,741,458 | BU | 28.1% | 41.7% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 54.2% | 28.1% | 50.0% | 45.3% | 42.2% | 12.5% | 40.6% | 40.6% |
| 21 | $3,721,407 | BU | 28.1% | 41.7% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 54.2% | 28.1% | 50.0% | 45.3% | 42.2% | 12.5% | 40.6% | 40.6% |
| 22 | $3,681,290 | BU | 28.1% | 41.7% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 54.2% | 28.1% | 48.4% | 45.3% | 42.2% | 12.5% | 40.6% | 40.6% |
| 23 | $3,641,174 | BU | 28.1% | 41.7% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 54.2% | 28.1% | 48.4% | 43.8% | 42.2% | 12.5% | 40.6% | 40.6% |
| 24 | $3,560,940 | BU | 28.1% | 39.6% | 12.5% | 7.8% | 53.1% | 28.1% | 46.9% | 43.8% | 42.2% | 12.5% | 40.6% | 40.6% |
| 25 | $3,520,817 | BU | 28.1% | 39.6% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 53.1% | 28.1% | 46.9% | 43.8% | 42.2% | 12.5% | 40.6% | 40.6% |
| 26 | $3,480,697 | BU | 25.0% | 37.5% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 49.0% | 28.1% | 45.3% | 35.9% | 40.6% | 12.5% | 34.4% | 40.6% |
| 27 | $3,440,590 | BU | 25.0% | 37.5% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 49.0% | 28.1% | 45.3% | 32.8% | 40.6% | 12.5% | 34.4% | 40.6% |
| 28 | $3,420,523 | BU | 25.0% | 36.5% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 47.9% | 28.1% | 45.3% | 32.8% | 40.6% | 12.5% | 34.4% | 40.6% |
| 29 | $3,259,569 | BU | 17.2% | 34.4% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 45.8% | 21.9% | 45.3% | 29.7% | 40.6% | 9.4% | 31.3% | 37.5% |
| 30 | $3,174,331 | BU | 17.2% | 33.3% | BU | BU | 43.8% | 21.9% | 43.8% | 26.6% | 37.5% | 9.4% | 28.1% | 37.5% |
| 31 | $3,102,925 | BU | 15.6% | 31.3% | BU | BU | 42.7% | 21.9% | 42.2% | 26.6% | 35.9% | 3.1% | 28.1% | 37.5% |
| 32 | $3,056,952 | BU | 15.6% | 31.3% | BU | BU | 42.7% | 21.9% | 40.6% | 25.0% | 35.9% | 3.1% | 28.1% | 37.5% |
Here you can see the upside and downside of the picks. Drafting a safety late for example requires the player to be better than about 36% of starters to justify the rookie salary. A left tackle can be a backup and still justify the rookie salary. This is just to help show that for some positions the actual play from the player does not have to be very high to at least “break even” on the pick. In a sense it gives you downside protection while also having high end upside at certain positions while other positions require a higher level of play to meet just the cheap rookie contract.
With that in mind here is a look at how the current top 15 players at each position were originally acquired by their current team. While a handful of players who were drafted actually were available in free agency and chose to re-sign with their team I am including them as draft picks.
| Position | Free Agency | Draft | Trade |
| LT | 13.3% | 73.3% | 13.3% |
| RB | 26.7% | 66.7% | 6.7% |
| IDL | 6.7% | 66.7% | 13.3% |
| RT | 40.0% | 60.0% | 0.0% |
| TE | 26.7% | 60.0% | 13.3% |
| CB | 26.7% | 60.0% | 13.3% |
| S | 26.7% | 53.3% | 20.0% |
| WR | 6.7% | 53.3% | 40.0% |
| C | 53.3% | 46.7% | 0.0% |
| LB | 46.7% | 46.7% | 6.7% |
| QB | 13.3% | 46.7% | 40.0% |
| G | 46.7% | 40.0% | 13.3% |
| EDGE | 46.7% | 40.0% | 13.3% |
The position that surprised me the most is EDGE as only 40% of the top 15 players were originally acquired in the draft by their current teams and they had nearly 47% sign as free agents. This is something to keep an eye on as historically this has not been the case and usually teams protect this position. Free agency remains a dead route for the acquisition of a left tackle, interior defensive lineman, wide receiver and quarterback. That said teams are willing to trade QBs and WRs but at a very high cost. The current market has had good availability at center, linebacker, guard, EDGE and right tackle in free agency. Generally, that should mean discounting that position as a draft specific need.