Draft Retention Rates in 2022

Every now and then I like to take a look at how teams have utilized draft picks in building their roster. To do this I look at past history in the NFL and determine what the odds are that a player would still be on the roster of a team based on when he was drafted and the round he was drafted in. While this does not measure the quality of the drafted players (they may still be on the team because of cap issues for example) it does give an idea of teams that are relying on draft picks to fill out a roster. Here is a look at the rankings for 2022 of all players drafted between 2019 and 2022.

TeamPicksPct Actually on TeamPct Expected on TeamPct Increase
Rams3476.5%62.4%22.5%
Chiefs2885.7%71.1%20.5%
Browns3183.9%70.5%19.0%
Packers3778.4%66.2%18.4%
Chargers3080.0%67.9%17.8%
Cardinals3369.7%59.5%17.2%
Giants3778.4%67.5%16.1%
49ers3080.0%69.1%15.8%
Seahawks3174.2%65.2%13.9%
Commanders3672.2%64.1%12.6%
Bengals3372.7%65.2%11.5%
Cowboys3574.3%69.5%6.9%
Bills3167.7%63.6%6.5%
Buccaneers3070.0%67.2%4.2%
Colts3464.7%62.2%3.9%
Bears3066.7%64.5%3.4%
Eagles2969.0%67.0%2.9%
Dolphins2867.9%66.5%2.0%
Lions3366.7%66.9%-0.3%
Steelers3161.3%63.5%-3.5%
Falcons3070.0%73.1%-4.2%
Vikings4860.4%63.1%-4.3%
Saints2065.0%68.2%-4.6%
Ravens3770.3%74.1%-5.2%
Broncos3565.7%69.5%-5.4%
Titans2969.0%73.7%-6.4%
Panthers3161.3%67.3%-8.9%
Patriots3860.5%66.7%-9.3%
Texans2665.4%72.9%-10.3%
Raiders2962.1%71.8%-13.6%
Jets3262.5%72.5%-13.8%
Jaguars3560.0%70.1%-14.4%

The Rams lead the way this season with 22.5% increase over the expected amount who should be on the roster. Obviously, that has not helped the Rams this year who have struggled as have the Browns, Packers, and Cardinals. In all these cases I would consider the percentage of draft picks to be tied somewhat to the salary cap woes of the teams and in the Browns case to the lack of draft picks expected in the future due to the Watson trade. The Chiefs at number two look to be positioned nicely for the future.

On the bottom end you have the Jaguars which is not a surprise since they have changed direction so often in the last few years. The Jets at number 31 did surprise me a little but basically they have been a team that is a bit boom or bust in the draft with the good ones being good and the bad ones being shuffled away. The Raiders and Texans at 30 and 29 are no shocker. They have been terrible at nearly every aspect of team building as have the Panthers.

Here is how this would look as a graph with the league broken up into four quadrants

Questions about this article? Reach Jason Fitzgerald on Twitter at @Jason_OTC