Dolphins and Texans Swap Linebackers

Miami and Houston have agreed to a trade which will see the Dolphins send edge rusher Shaq Lawson to Houston and in return Houston will send linebacker Benardrick McKinney the Dolphins way.

Both contracts were structured with smaller signing bonuses so that the cap pain in a trade would not be terrible. Lawson will count for just $2.67 million while Van Noy will cost the team $4.13 million on the cap. Still in both cases the team spent millions of dollars for just one year of access to the players. Lawson will cost the Texans a guaranteed $8 million this season and $9 million next year, so well under the stated contract value. Lawson also has incentives tied to sacks.

McKinney is a former 2nd round pick of the Texans who signed a $10 million per year contract extension in 2018. He spent most of the year last year on injured reserve and was possibly going to be cut this offseason as the Texans start to remake the roster. McKinney has no more guarantees in his contract and will cost the Texans just $1.5 million on the cap following the trade. Miami will take on $7.75 million in salary this year, $9.5 million in 2022, and $10.25 million in 2023.

For Houston this is a good trade. The salary is essentially a wash (they will lose a small amount of cap room this year) but are getting a player who may play a more impactful role on the defense. Lawson is also younger. For Miami I think it is a little more questionable. Salary cap wise its similar to Houston- the salaries are a wash and they lose a little cap space- but trading younger for a little bit older especially off injury is always risky. I’d guess part of the thought process may be that a potential Pro Bowl linebacker is better than a 2nd tier edge. It is also possible Miami could try to rework the contract to a lower salary.

One thing I will say is that Miami clearly is not chasing the sunk costs in these players which is, over the long term, a good thing. The next step for them is to probably take a bit more of a deliberate approach in the cash structure of the deals because under no circumstance would anyone have paid Lawson or Van Noy the amount of money that the Dolphins did for a one year return. One of the interesting takeaways from our Free Agent guide was the short term success of changing the defensive mix and maybe that is what they are going for here as well.

Miami is about $32 million under the salary cap at this point and could be in a position to be active in free agency again. The team has about the 20th ranked payroll in the NFL but with a big draft group does have more committed than most other teams to draft picks who would not be accounted for in that number. I think they could be an interesting team to watch this week to see if they are in or out of the mix early on.

OTC 2021 Free Agency Guide

  • Welcome to our very first OTC Football Free Agency Guide, a 240 page PDF that not only offers a preview of some of the top free agents in 2021 but an in-depth review of how teams have successfully (and not so successfully) utilized free agency in the past. The book hits on many of the topics that we discuss on OTC or social media outlets when we get into opinions on free agency as well as a unique retroactive look at free agency that is an area not really focused on in the past.

    The book is broken down into three sections and includes the following:

    Free Agent Outcomes From 2015 to 2019

    We look back at how much every team spent on free agents between 2015 and 2019 and how that spending translated into wins in the season of signing. We look at results of offensive and defensive spending based on the team’s prior seasons record to identify some of the biggest spenders in the NFL and what spending levels have brought some success. We further break down spending by position to compare the results based on spending levels and with the control groups who did not spend on a particular position in the offseason.

    Individual Positional Outcomes From 2014 to 2020

    We go back and look at every UFA who switched teams from 2014 to 2020 to identify contract expectations based on the size and length of a contract. Contracts are grouped in different ways to determine the expected years to be completed on a contract and ultimate contract outcome. We grouped every position into different salary tiers and compared the average various statistical performances in the two years leading up to free agency with how those groups performed in the year they switched teams and, where applicable, in future years.

    Free Agent Projections for 2021

    Finally, we have profiles of 77 unrestricted free agents that include thoughts on each player, their OTC valuation metric performance over the last two years, a list of five potential comparable players and how they compare statistically with the free agent and the key metrics of those contract to help frame the market of the player. Finally, we arrive at a projection that includes years, average annual value, and guarantee.

    If you are a premium subscriber you already have access to the OTC 2021 Football Free Agency Guide and you can download it from the link in the premium menu. If you are interested in becoming a premium subscriber you can read here about some of the features that it includes to get you more depth in evaluating contracts, seeing more data on team construction, or preparing for free agency.  If you do subscribe to premium you will be sent a second email with instructions for setting up the account. A few people have had these lost in spam filters and if that happens please let us know via the technical support form and we will get you the necessary link.

     

    If you are not a subscriber you can purchase the guide as a standalone for $24.95.

     

    We hope you enjoy this addition to OTC and we thank you for continuing to make OTC one of your football related destinations every week.

2022 Compensatory Picks Potential

The 2021 league year in the NFL officially starts on Wednesday, March 17. The two day negotiating period of free agency commences on Monday, March 15, and this is the time when we would typically get first knowledge of the largest contracts to be signed. With those contracts signed come the generation of compensatory picks for the 2021 NFL Draft, thus it’s time to take a look at what comp pick potential teams might be looking at.

Buffalo Bills

With Matt Milano recently extended, the only other pending UFA that might see serious action on the comp pick list would be Daryl Williams, who got his career back on track in Buffalo at right tackle. With some money to spend on a solid team with Super Bowl aspirations, the time to strike on signing the right CFA may be now. Potential: Very Low

Miami Dolphins

Ted Karras played every single snap at center on a 1-year deal. Davon Godchaux is a young interior defensive lineman that could see a comp pick worthy deal. Finally, there’s Ryan Fitzpatrick, one of the most popular veteran quarterbacks out there that even on a backup salary could be in consideration. But with only 13 pending UFAs and a team still being shaped for Brian Flores, more work on the free agent market could be in order. Potential: Low

New England Patriots

The Patriots have 20 total pending UFAs even after the new extensions to Cam Newton and Justin Bethel. Combine this with a team that regularly makes an effort to get them, and with previously tagged Joe Thuney not getting tagged again at the top of the list, and that should keep New England on the list somewhere. The only aggravating factors might be having the lowest payroll in the league to improve a roster on a team that missed the playoffs for the first time in ages. Potential: High

New York Jets

There are not many notable potential CFAs on the Jets’ list of pending UFAs (Breshad Perriman? Neville Hewitt?), and like their division rival Patriots, they are just below them with money to spend on a worse roster. I would expect the Jets to be one of the big teams to generate comp picks for other teams than for themselves. Potential: Very Low

Baltimore Ravens

It looks to be typical comp picks season in Baltimore once again for the 2022 NFL Draft. They’re down to only 12 pending UFAs, but they include two previously tagged edge rushers in Yannick Ngakoue and Matt Judon, a key reserve at the same position in Tyus Bowser, starting center Matt Skura, complementary wide receiver Willie Snead, and the perennially underrated Derek Wolfe. Potential: Very High

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals did not use a tag on either William Jackson III or Carl Lawson, and both players should be in high demand on the market. Combine this with 22 pending UFAs and a franchise that typically is not known for spending, we should expect the Bengals to break their usual drought of earning comp picks this time around. Potential: Very High

Cleveland Browns

Most of Cleveland’s pending UFAs of note that were big contributors last season are on the older side (Olivier Vernon, Malcolm Smith, Terrance Mitchell, Andrew Sendejo), which may depress their comp pick potential. Rashard Higgins is an intriguing option at wide receiver for teams should he not re-sign with the Browns. Like the Bills, a recent playoff team like the Browns might be better suited to make a push for the right CFAs right now. Potential: Low

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers just emerged from a deep cap crunch, and one consequence is that they did not use any tag on possibly worthy players like JuJu Smith-Schuster or Bud Dupree. Both should expect good deals elsewhere if they leave Pittsburgh. But it doesn’t end there: Alejandro Villanueva, Matt Feiler, Mike Hilton, and Cameron Sutton are also key contributors hitting the market. The Steelers should be very competitive with the rival Ravens and Bengals in collecting comp picks for 2022. Potential: Very High

Houston Texans

Will Fuller is the only notable potential CFA of note for Houston this year, and given a new regime at both GM and head coach that’s in place, they may want to shape the roster to their own liking with external CFAs from teams they are familiar with. Potential: Very Low

Indianapolis Colts

Long time leading wide receiver TY Hilton leads this list, followed by other long time familiar names in the NFL like Justin Houston, Xavier Rhodes, and Denico Autry. The downside is that all of them are over 30. Younger names that teams might take a shot on are Marlon Mack and Malik Hooker, both recovering from injuries, and Jacoby Brissett could also be good for a high level backup contract that’s comp pick worthy. The Colts have some money to spend but they may also have room to gain some comp picks at the same time. Potential: Moderate

Jacksonville Jaguars

With Urban Meyer now in charge, the Jaguars having oodles of both cash and cap to spend, and with Keelan Cole leading a very unimpressive list of pending UFAs, look for the Jaguars to extend their league leading comp pick drought from 11 drafts to 12. Potential: Very Low

Tennessee Titans

Notable Titans hitting the free agency market are Jonnu Smith, Jayon Brown, Corey Davis, Desmond King, and DaQuan Jones, with the eternally curious contractual case of Jadeveon Clowney on the table as well. Last offseason, the Titans broke their long drought of comp picks with quality, focusing on one 3rd rounder for letting Jack Conklin depart, while extending other candidates in Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry. This time around, I’d expect more quantity coming Tennessee’s way. Potential: High

Denver Broncos

With Justin Simmons once again tagged, likely on the path to a long term extension, Shelby Harris is the only other pending UFA of note, and his value on the market has high variance to it at that. The Broncos’ needs in free agency are very targeted (cornerback, high level backup quarterback), but especially if they extend Harris this may be a good year for new GM George Paton to acquire more CFA talent if the price is right for now, laying the path for comp picks later. Potential: Low

Kansas City Chiefs

On the one hand, the Chiefs have a handful of intriguing potential CFAs that could similar intrigue teams. Bashaud Breeland, Austin Reiter, Demarcus Robinson, and Daniel Sorensen are among them, and never discount Sammy Watkins getting another big deal based on his high draft pedigree. On the other hand, their offensive line needs a ton of help, as Super Bowl LV demonstrated, and was confirmed with the recent cuts of long time tackles Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, and they may have no choice but participate a little in the CFA market in order to fix it. Potential: Moderate

Las Vegas Raiders

Jon Gruden has never been shy in pursuing CFAs–even when they regularly don’t work out–nor has he been shy in tampering with them, either. With an offensive line decimated by recent cuts, a defense still very much struggling, and Nelson Agholor the only possible CFA of note, I expect Gruden to continue his modus operandi of being a league leader in signing CFAs, creating comp picks for other teams instead of the Raiders. Potential: Very Low

Los Angeles Chargers

Hunter Henry did not receive another tag, and thus he’ll be a leading tight end on the free agent market for teams to target. Melvin Ingram turns 32 but should also still have demand at edge rusher, too. Other players that could get comp pick worthy interest include Michael Davis, Rayshawn Jenkins, Denzel Perryman, and a trio of starting offensive linemen in Sam Tevi, Forrest Lamp, and Dan Feeney. However, given those last three pending departures, of which Trai Turner may soon join them, the Chargers’ comp pick potential could be hampered by the necessity to sign CFA offensive linemen. Potential: Moderate

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys prioritize keeping their own homegrown players–like Dak Prescott–over signing external veterans, and this practice naturally leads them to earn comp picks. This offseason should be no different, with players like Jourdan Lewis, Chidobe Awuzie, Xavier Woods, and Tyrone Crawford hitting the market, with Andy Dalton still likely good for a high backup QB salary that would be comp pick worthy. Potential: High

New York Giants

With Leonard Williams tagged again, the defensive lineman that will likely get the most attention in free agency will be Dalvin Tomlinson. Kyler Fackrell could also get some attention after playing out a one year deal in New York, while Wayne Gallman caught some eyes in relief of Saquon Barkley in 2020. An aggravating factor is that there’s not many other notable CFAs beyond this trio, but a mitigating factor is that the Giants don’t have a lot of cap space to work with to pursue external CFAs. Potential: Moderate

Philadelphia Eagles

Never count out Howie Roseman in the quest for comp picks, but this looks like a weak year for him to pursue them for Philadelphia. Jalen Mills is the only Eagle that looks to sign a comp pick worthy contract on a low list of 12 pending UFAs. However, with the Eagles holding a high payroll and low cap space, that might end up naturally creating a comp pick or two for them. Potential: Low

Washington Football Team

The two names to watch here would be Ronald Darby, who may finally get his chance to earn a lucrative long term deal, and Ryan Kerrigan, long a reliable edge rusher but no longer has a path to starting in DC with Chase Young and Montez Sweat now in town. However, Ron Rivera does have cash to spend to improve the team if he so chooses, so there is reasonable doubt as to whether he’ll pursue the path of comp picks down the road, or CFA help right now Potential: Moderate

Chicago Bears

The Bears have 20 pending UFAs, but there’s only two of them that might be comp pick worthy: defensive lineman Roy Robertson-Harris, and of course Mitch Trubisky, even if it’s only on a backup contract. If the Bears do get comp picks, it’ll likely be similar to last offseason, with more quantity than quality, getting 6th or 7th rounders on the lower end of the list. Potential: Low

Detroit Lions

Kenny Golladay was not tagged by the Lions, making him perhaps the most desired wide receiver that will become a UFA. Romeo Okwara and Marvin Jones round out a list of 18 total pending UFAs. The Lions typically do not prioritize comp picks, but on one hand there is a new GM in Brad Holmes in the building, and like many teams the Lions are on the cap brink. But on the other hand, Holmes may want to immediately craft his new roster to his liking, starting with free agency. If the Lions do pursue comp picks, the priority will likely be focusing on preserving a 3rd rounder for Golladay’s departure. Potential: Moderate

Green Bay Packers

It looks like business as usual for generating comp picks for Green Bay. Corey Linsley and Aaron Jones will be the two leading names to watch here, and despite his playoff struggles Kevin King could get a comp pick worthy deal as well. Combine their history with a payroll that’s already been dedicated to the players they’ve committed to keep, and it would be a surprise if we don’t see the Packers on the final comp pick list. Potential: Very High

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings’ quantity of pending UFAs is low at 11, but they do have some quality to work with here. That starts with Anthony Harris, who will not be tagged again, and fellow defenders in Eric Wilson and Jaleel Johnson. The question will be whether Minnesota has to hold off on signing CFAs of their own to avoid canceling any of these possible departures. Potential: Moderate

Atlanta Falcons

Alex Mack turns 36, but may still have plenty of desire for teams to continue his career at center. Keanu Neal, Damontae Kazee, and Sharrod Neasman will be a trio of safeties that could also pique attention elsewhere. With other peripheral names like Darqueze Dennard or Charles Harris on the table, there’s no one that stands out for the Falcons but their pending UFA slate is not desolate, either. Potential: Moderate

Carolina Panthers

There’s not a lot of intriguing names slated to leave Charlotte: Curtis Samuel and Mike Davis might be the only headliners. Perhaps Russell Okung can still find attention at a desirable position at tackle. Also working against the Panthers getting comp picks is having plenty of money to spend on a team that still needs improvement. Potential: Low

New Orleans Saints

The Saints surprisingly tagged Marcus Williams, but even with him off the market they have lots of other pending UFAs that will draw interest. They include Trey Hendrickson, Alex Anzalone, Sheldon Rankins, and Jameis Winston. Combine this with one of the most nightmarish cap situations the NFL has seen in years, and it may no longer be prudent to regularly note that the Saints historically don’t care about comp picks. Potential: Very High

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs tagged Chris Godwin, and extended Lavonte David, so those moves, though obviously a net positive for the franchise, depressed their comp pick potential for 2022. But they still have Shaq Barrett to try to also extend before he’d hit the market as a very desirable edge rusher. Other players with contracts expiring are Ndamukong Suh, Leonard Fournette, and while it would seem highly unlikely that Rob Gronkowski or Antonio Brown would play elsewhere, they also are without new contracts. Conclude this with a total of 23 pending UFAs, and even if the Bucs succeed in extending Barrett, they should still be in play for comp picks. Potential: Moderate

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are tied for the lead with a division rival with pending UFAs at 26. That alone will put them in play for some form of comp picks. Most of them won’t generate such picks, but there’s enough notable names at the top (Haason Reddick, Patrick Peterson, Kelvin Beachum, De’Vondre Campbell, Dre Kirkpatrick) that they could be in good shape even if they decide to pursue external CFAs to sign. Potential: High

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are the inverse of all of their division rivals: low in quantity (11 pending UFAs) but high in quality (John Johnson, Leonard Floyd, Troy Hill, Austin Blythe, Josh Reynolds, Gerald Everett Samson Ebukam). Combine this with their payroll very locked in on their top players, and their draft capital depleted from acquiring such players, and the Rams will likely appreciate some high comp picks to help fill that void. Potential: Very High

San Francisco 49ers

And it’s the 49ers that are the aforementioned tie with the Cardinals in leading in pending UFAs. And there’s some good names set to hit the market, too: Trent Williams, Richard Sherman, Ahkello Witherspoon, Kerry Hyder, Kendrick Bourne, Kyle Juszczyk, Jaquiski Tartt, and Jason Verrett. Like the Cardinals, the 49ers should have no problem earning comp picks even if they sign external CFAs to replace some of them. Potential: Very High

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks also have a high number of pending UFAs at 21, and like the 49ers and Cardinals there are names that could get attention on the market at the top. They include Shaquill Griffin, Chris Carson, David Moore, Quinton Dunbar, and perhaps most intriguing is the very long tenured KJ Wright. Seattle is not afraid of signing CFAs from other teams if they feel they need them, but they also have a long history of prioritizing comp picks. Potential: High

New Changes to OTC’s Draft Section

In preparation for free agency, of which will result in the beginning of the creation of a new slate of compensatory picks, as well as the draft itself, OTC’s section on the draft has been upgraded to better serve the needs of learning more about the draft from a contractual standpoint.

Streamlined Draft Page

OTC’s main draft page will be keeping things simpler for the time being. One table, listing all draft picks, and what contract each pick will receive. This will allow for more flexibility in the future to add more possible draft features, as well as to build an archive of previous drafts.

Rookie pools have been updated to account for the current salary cap. Updates on traded picks have also been made, a process that will be finalized when the NFL releases its full draft order soon.

Centralized Compensatory Picks Page

You’ll now find on the same page OTC’s list of projected compensatory picks, as well as cancellation charts for all 32 teams. Our goal here is to make it easier for readers to understand how comp picks are assigned by being able to see the list and charts side by side in one view.

Currently, comp pick information for 2021 is up, as well as for 2022, which will update in real time as compensatory free agent (CFA) signings are agreed upon, starting next week. Comp pick history for previous drafts will be restored in the near future. OTC’s old comp pick cancellation charts page is now deprecated and will be sunsetted in the near future, so please use this link to OTC’s compensatory picks page from here on out.

Compensatory Formula Page

Appendix V of the 2020 Collective Bargaining Agreement ended the official secrecy of the compensatory formula. To help to provide more transparency to how the compensatory formula works, we’ve created a dedicated page on the subject. Here, you will see all players considered in the formula, with CFAs highlighted, as well as OTC’s projections on how each player’s points are calculated in order to rank them by round. This is a good place to go if you understand the basics well and are looking to go into the weeds on why certain players are valued at certain rounds.

Fitzgerald-Spielberger Trade Value Chart

Finally, we have created a page to reference our recommended trade value chart, devised by OTC founder Jason Fitzgerald and Pro Football Focus analyst Brad Spielberger. Use this chart to assist in whether trades of draft picks make good sense, and to learn more, consider reading The Drafting Stage.

* * * *

To access all of OTC’s draft tools, go to its dedicated dropdown on the navigation dashboard. We hope these upgrades will make your draft-oriented, contract-based information gathering better!

Evaluation of the 2021 Compensatory Picks Projection

UPDATE (3/19/2021): This article has been edited to reflect mistakes that the NFL Management Council made in its initial compensatory pick release.

The 2021 compensatory draft picks were released today. As always, upon seeing the official release it’s proper to judge how my projection did against it, especially with a season of so much upheaval.

Continue reading Evaluation of the 2021 Compensatory Picks Projection »

Cowboys Create $17 Million in Cap Room

Dallas continues to have an active offseason with the restructuring of the contracts of Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, and La’el Collins accoring to Todd Archer of ESPN

These players are basically Dallas’ go to guys for restructures. Smith has had his contract modified five times in eight years while Martin has restructured two times in four years and Collins two times in three years. Offensive linemen are often some of the safest players to do this with which is why Dallas often goes to this position more than others for cap relief.

While we do not have the particulars to update the numbers just yet it does put Dallas about $18 million under the cap once Dak Prescott signs his new contract. This also should give Dallas the cap room needed to carry Prescott’s tag into the new league year so they can hold off on signing the contract until 2021 officially begins.

If Dallas needs more cap room the next logical target is Demarcus Lawrence whose contract is already probably considered prohibitive from release in 2022. Amari Cooper would be the other possibility but if the team wants to keep open a trade window with him for 2022 then restructuring his contract should take a back seat to Lawrence’s contract.

Dolphins Trade for Isaiah Wilson

Isaiah Wilson may have hit a new level of first round draft bust, getting a return of basically nothing in a trade for the Titans according to Albert Breer.

Wilson had an awful first year with the Titans and basically completely fell out of favor with the organization. Wilson appeared in just one game and played all of 3 snaps for the Titans last year. By the end of the year they moved him to the NFI list and in this offseason Wilson made some posts on social media indicating he wasn’t coming back.

The Titans paid Wilson a $5.97 million signing bonus last year and he still had $4.577 million in future guarantees, though I would think it was likely they could find a way to eventually void those. This trade does get the Titans completely off the hook from any guaranteed salary without having to go through that process which is likely what made the trade happen.

For those couple of snaps the Titans will have paid Wilson $6,547,486. He will leave the Titans with $4.48 million in dead money which will reduce their cap space in 2021 by $1.85 million over what it was with him on the roster.

Miami has no real sunk cost in the trade and will retain all the rights to void the guarantees in the contract if Wilson refuses to show up to work or winds up getting himself suspended by the team. The trade should also transfer all the rights of bonus forfeiture to Miami from Tennessee which would give Miami a path to seek repayment of that $4.48 million if Wilson was to refuse to play or anything like that.

It is more or less a very low risk signing for Miami with $4.577 million in remaining guarantees and a cap charge of just $1.136 million this season. Considering they hold some financial power to void guarantees in the future I think it was a reasonable risk to take for the team.

Broncos Tag Safety Justin Simmons

The Broncos are applying the franchise tag again to star safety Justin Simmons according to Benjamin Albright.

Because Simmons was tagged last season his franchise tag number will not be based on the salary cap this year but instead will receive a 120% raise over last season’s salary. This will bring Simmons tag value to $13.729 million for 2021. It is doubtful that the Broncos used the exclusive tag as the cost of that tag would be $15.2 million and likely would go down if the team waited longer.

Simmons is still free to sign with any team in the NFL but given that nobody signed him last year to an offer sheet it would be safe to say that he will exclusively be negotiating with the Broncos. It would cost a team two first round draft picks if they signed Simmons to an offer sheet and it was not matched by Denver. This tag, as discussed in our free agency guide, was a given this year if no long term deal was reached. The cost is too cheap and the player too valuable to let him walk freely.

In my opinion the longer Denver waits the more expensive Simmons may become. There are a number of good free agent safeties who may push the market this year and there is the big albatross of a Jamal Adams extension that could come prior to the deadline to sign Simmons to a long term contract. If anything it probably pays to wait in Simmons case now depending on how strong an offer comes from Denver.

Because this is Simmons second franchise tag he won’t be tagged again as a third tag would escalate Simmons price to that of a quarterback. There have been very few non-quarterbacks who have actually played on a second franchise tag so I would think the odds are high that a long term deal happens sooner rather than later. We estimate the Broncos to have about $30 million in cap space, including the franchise tag for Simmons.

OTC 2021 Free Agency Guide

  • Welcome to our very first OTC Football Free Agency Guide, a 240 page PDF that not only offers a preview of some of the top free agents in 2021 but an in-depth review of how teams have successfully (and not so successfully) utilized free agency in the past. The book hits on many of the topics that we discuss on OTC or social media outlets when we get into opinions on free agency as well as a unique retroactive look at free agency that is an area not really focused on in the past.

    The book is broken down into three sections and includes the following:

    Free Agent Outcomes From 2015 to 2019

    We look back at how much every team spent on free agents between 2015 and 2019 and how that spending translated into wins in the season of signing. We look at results of offensive and defensive spending based on the team’s prior seasons record to identify some of the biggest spenders in the NFL and what spending levels have brought some success. We further break down spending by position to compare the results based on spending levels and with the control groups who did not spend on a particular position in the offseason.

    Individual Positional Outcomes From 2014 to 2020

    We go back and look at every UFA who switched teams from 2014 to 2020 to identify contract expectations based on the size and length of a contract. Contracts are grouped in different ways to determine the expected years to be completed on a contract and ultimate contract outcome. We grouped every position into different salary tiers and compared the average various statistical performances in the two years leading up to free agency with how those groups performed in the year they switched teams and, where applicable, in future years.

    Free Agent Projections for 2021

    Finally, we have profiles of 77 unrestricted free agents that include thoughts on each player, their OTC valuation metric performance over the last two years, a list of five potential comparable players and how they compare statistically with the free agent and the key metrics of those contract to help frame the market of the player. Finally, we arrive at a projection that includes years, average annual value, and guarantee.

    If you are a premium subscriber you already have access to the OTC 2021 Football Free Agency Guide and you can download it from the link in the premium menu. If you are interested in becoming a premium subscriber you can read here about some of the features that it includes to get you more depth in evaluating contracts, seeing more data on team construction, or preparing for free agency.  If you do subscribe to premium you will be sent a second email with instructions for setting up the account. A few people have had these lost in spam filters and if that happens please let us know via the technical support form and we will get you the necessary link.

     

    If you are not a subscriber you can purchase the guide as a standalone for $24.95.

     

    We hope you enjoy this addition to OTC and we thank you for continuing to make OTC one of your football related destinations every week.