The OTC NFL Power Rankings: Week 9

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The Cardinals jumped to number 7, while the Seahawks dropped to 8. I cant recall the last time Seattle did not come out as a top 5 team in these rankings. Sometime back in 2012 I’d guess and one more poor week and I think its time to start being concerned.

On the low end of the rankings, the Buccaneers are proving to be the worst team in some time. There is nothing they do well and its against a pretty easy schedule. Jacksonville and St. Louis are the other teams trending really bad. The Raiders have actually played a bit better than the record would indicate but they have a very difficult schedule which, in some ways, helps them in these rankings since they are not always getting blown out.

The Falcons, Bears, and Rams look like the worst value teams in the NFL. The Falcons have the highest true payroll in the NFL while the other two are in the top 10. All three are among the worst in the NFL. The Rams do have the injury excuse as a massive portion of the team is on IR, but I would expect changes in the other two organizations unless things improve.

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NFL Power Rankings, Through Week 8

RankChangeTeamScoring EfficiencyDefensive EfficiencyTotal EfficiencyProjected Wins
1Broncos56.2%19.0%75.2%15.1
2Colts47.2%1.9%49.1%12.6
3Ravens8.7%34.6%43.2%12.1
4+2Chiefs10.9%28.1%39.0%11.7
5Chargers14.0%16.1%30.1%10.9
6+8Patriots31.8%-6.5%25.2%10.3
7+3Cardinals3.3%19.2%22.5%10.1
8-4Seahawks5.5%15.2%20.7%10.0
9-2Eagles20.3%-0.8%19.5%9.8
10-1Cowboys9.8%7.0%16.8%9.6
11Lions-20.8%33.0%12.2%9.2
12+3Bengals2.8%8.5%11.3%9.1
13+3Bills0.8%10.1%10.9%9.0
14-1Dolphins5.4%4.9%10.3%9.0
15-7Packers20.2%-10.4%9.7%8.9
16+1Texans-2.6%10.1%7.6%8.7
17-549ers-1.3%8.3%7.0%8.7
18+4Saints26.8%-21.8%4.9%8.4
19+1Steelers10.2%-8.2%2.0%8.2
20-2Giants1.3%-1.2%0.0%8.0
21-2Browns-4.7%1.3%-3.5%7.7
22+4Redskins-7.1%-13.4%-20.5%6.0
23Panthers-10.5%-10.8%-21.3%6.0
24Vikings-32.4%10.9%-21.4%6.0
25+2Falcons3.7%-27.8%-24.1%5.7
26-5Bears-8.4%-19.8%-28.2%5.3
27+1Titans-27.1%-8.4%-35.5%4.7
28-3Jets-19.6%-19.7%-39.3%4.3
29+1Raiders-34.7%-8.9%-43.6%3.9
30+1Jaguars-38.7%-12.0%-50.6%3.2
31-2Rams-16.7%-34.1%-50.8%3.2
32Buccaneers-25.2%-45.1%-70.3%1.3

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The OTC NFL Power Rankings: Week 8

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With Monday night now in the books we have our official power rankings up to date. In case you have not read these before the rankings are based on a formula that measures how well (or poor) a team has performed against their specific schedule. So to read the chart for Denver you would say that the team scores 53.3% more points than their schedule allowed against all other teams and held their schedule to 18.3% below their normal points scored. The projected wins is based on a regression formula so that’s why in some cases teams are already above or below their projections. The projections will change over the course of the year.

Despite the loss in St. Louis, the Seahawks still remain one of the top 5 teams in the NFL. They have played an incredibly difficult schedule  and while they are trending downward there is clearly enough there to win the division. Their defense is clearly not what it was last season which should have been expected. The variance year to year in that category is very high ad they were one of the best Super Bowl champions in that regard. The fact that they were an excellent defensive team two years in a row is surprising and to sustain that for three years would be really hard to do. What they need to do is stabilize themselves and prevent the falling off a cliff that we are seeing in Cincinnati, who has now plummeted to 15th in the rankings.

The AFC West is looking like the most elite division in the NFL. Currently they are fielding three top 10 teams in the rankings. The divisions with two are the NFC East and the NFC West. The most up for grabs division with decent play looks to be the AFC East with the Dolphins, Patriots, and Bills all sandwiched in the mid teens. The NFC South is on track to be the worst division of all time with rankings of 22, 23, 27, and 32.

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NFL Power Rankings, Through Week 7

RankChangeTeamScoring EfficiencyDefensive EfficiencyTotal EfficiencyProjected Wins
1Broncos53.3%18.3%71.7%14.8
2Colts51.6%19.7%71.3%14.7
3+1Ravens9.5%41.4%50.9%12.9
4-1Seahawks23.6%11.9%35.5%11.3
5Chargers14.4%20.7%35.1%11.3
6+2Chiefs11.4%20.7%32.2%11.1
7+3Eagles27.5%1.4%28.9%10.7
8+4Packers26.9%1.8%28.7%10.7
9Cowboys15.9%7.4%23.3%10.2
10-4Cardinals3.0%16.6%19.7%9.9
11+2Lions-19.8%34.4%14.5%9.4
12-149ers0.7%10.2%10.9%9.0
13+6Dolphins11.7%-1.0%10.6%9.0
14Patriots18.5%-13.4%5.0%8.4
15-8Bengals-2.7%7.3%4.6%8.4
16Bills-7.7%12.3%4.5%8.4
17Texans-3.6%7.3%3.7%8.4
18Giants-0.1%0.1%0.0%8.0
19-4Browns0.1%-9.1%-9.0%7.1
20+3Steelers-11.4%-6.3%-17.7%6.3
21-1Bears-9.3%-9.1%-18.4%6.2
22Saints9.9%-29.5%-19.6%6.1
23-1Panthers3.2%-23.5%-20.4%6.0
24-1Vikings-29.2%4.4%-24.8%5.7
25+3Jets-18.6%-9.8%-28.3%5.3
26+1Redskins-8.9%-22.3%-31.1%5.0
27-3Falcons1.1%-32.9%-31.8%4.9
28-2Titans-28.0%-5.1%-33.1%4.9
29+1Rams-13.5%-27.4%-40.8%4.1
30-1Raiders-32.1%-15.4%-47.5%3.5
31Jaguars-35.7%-13.9%-49.6%3.3
32-1Buccaneers-22.8%-52.9%-75.7%0.8

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The OTC NFL Power Rankings: Week 7

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We’re back with another week of our power rankings. Again these ranks are not based on my own opinion but on a formula that determines how effective a team is at scoring and prevent scores against their specific schedule.

The Broncos maintain the top spot while the Colts leap by the Seahawks for second place. urrently the top 4 teams look to be head and shoulders above everyone else with the Chargers somewhat close behind. Of course many of these teams have only played 5 games so there is still a lot of football to be played and these ranks will certainly change over time.

The biggest positive mover of the week was the Eagles who climbed 7 spots to the number 10 position following their beatdown of the Giants. The Giants were the biggest loser of the week dropping 11 spots.  The Falcons showing combined with the no-show versus Philadelphia really hurt New York this week as does Detroits inability to score against anyone else this season.

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NFL Power Rankings, Through Week 6

RankChangeTeamScoring EfficiencyDefensive EfficiencyTotal EfficiencyProjected Wins
1Broncos38.5%16.6%55.1%13.2
2+3Colts51.7%2.6%54.4%13.1
3-1Seahawks31.9%17.3%49.2%12.6
4Ravens9.3%39.2%48.6%12.6
5-2Chargers12.2%23.0%35.2%11.3
6Cardinals10.0%16.7%26.8%10.5
7+1Bengals17.1%8.9%26.0%10.5
8+4Chiefs6.5%18.6%25.1%10.4
9+4Cowboys16.9%8.1%25.0%10.4
10+7Eagles23.7%1.1%24.8%10.3
11+449ers2.7%21.4%24.0%10.3
12-2Packers24.6%-4.2%20.4%9.9
13-2Lions-21.2%38.9%17.7%9.7
14+2Patriots19.3%-2.6%16.8%9.6
15+5Browns20.2%-3.6%16.7%9.5
16-7Bills-0.3%14.1%13.8%9.3
17-3Texans-8.1%16.7%8.6%8.8
18-11Giants0.0%5.4%5.4%8.5
19Dolphins10.4%-11.2%-0.8%7.9
20+5Bears-0.8%-6.4%-7.2%7.3
21+1Panthers6.8%-17.8%-11.0%6.9
22-1Saints1.2%-24.0%-22.7%5.8
23+1Steelers-22.7%-2.2%-24.9%5.7
24-6Falcons6.4%-33.1%-26.7%5.4
25-2Vikings-30.5%3.4%-27.0%5.5
26Titans-30.4%-2.9%-33.3%4.9
27Redskins-6.9%-26.6%-33.5%4.8
28Jets-23.9%-13.1%-37.0%4.5
29+2Raiders-30.2%-19.6%-49.7%3.3
30-1Rams-19.5%-33.2%-52.7%3.0
31+1Jaguars-45.0%-30.1%-75.1%0.9
32-2Buccaneers-23.7%-53.1%-76.8%0.7

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Looking at NFL Defenses Thru Week 5

Seeing some of the various debates about defenses this week  I wanted to share some of the stats I keep on various teams. The charts below provide schedule adjusted performance with the percentages equaling how much better or worse a team has fared against their specific schedule. So for example in the passing chart we would read this that the Cardinals give up 19% more passing yards, 11.8% less passing TDs, and create 108% more interceptions and 46% less sacks than their opponents have gained against all other teams they played.

The first chart is pass defense and I think you can make a case that the Bengals, Packers, Broncos, Bills, and Lions have been the most efficient pass defenses in the NFL.

The second chart is rushing stats. Here Id say the Seahawks, Broncos, Bills, Lions, and Cardinals are pretty effective.

Finally we have a total stats charts looking at total yards per game allowed and touchdowns allowed. The final column looks at how many yards must be produced to score a touchdown. So for the Ravens their opponents have to produce about 79% more yards than normal to score a touchdown. That’s obviously from a combination of few turnovers, good field position, and keeping teams out of the end zone and relegating them to field goals. Next time around Ill add plays to the final chart.

All tables should be sortable by clicking the header…

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NFL Pass Defense, Thru Week 5

TeamYardsTDsIntsSacksComp %Y/AY/CANYA
Cardinals19.0%-11.8%108.3%-46.4%0.8%-3.4%-4.2%-10.6%
Bears8.0%28.6%180.0%-2.2%4.2%10.3%5.9%-2.5%
Saints6.4%26.7%-84.2%-38.4%3.4%4.0%0.6%38.4%
Jaguars5.7%29.7%-78.9%128.6%7.4%0.6%-6.3%7.2%
Falcons5.1%-36.7%-65.5%-52.5%2.3%15.1%12.5%32.5%
Broncos4.5%-43.5%31.3%48.1%-8.2%-16.0%-8.6%-27.3%
Texans2.4%-16.9%-5.0%-11.3%1.8%-8.4%-10.0%-7.2%
Browns-0.9%21.7%-14.3%-3.0%2.3%9.7%7.3%14.9%
Eagles-1.2%76.4%-50.4%-14.7%-12.2%-12.3%-0.1%7.6%
Bills-1.4%-21.8%52.0%90.0%0.9%-13.3%-14.1%-27.0%
Buccaneers-3.2%22.6%-5.0%-14.5%8.1%0.1%-7.4%5.0%
Cowboys-3.4%16.9%14.0%-55.8%3.6%-0.8%-4.3%5.5%
Giants-3.7%-36.7%117.1%5.6%-4.7%-2.7%2.1%-22.6%
Dolphins-4.2%31.3%-13.5%65.0%-2.4%-13.1%-10.9%-10.5%
Ravens-5.1%-60.0%35.0%-47.1%-2.8%-7.2%-4.6%-14.4%
Bengals-5.3%-42.9%100.0%6.7%-11.2%-24.6%-15.1%-40.0%
Redskins-5.3%54.8%-65.5%56.5%3.6%4.1%0.4%21.2%
Raiders-5.6%40.6%-50.0%-53.1%25.2%13.7%-9.2%36.0%
Steelers-8.8%-1.5%-24.0%-33.9%0.3%-10.8%-11.1%-4.3%
Jets-9.5%30.3%-80.0%79.4%-3.7%-8.9%-5.4%0.7%
Panthers-9.8%37.9%25.0%0.0%5.0%-8.8%-13.2%-10.8%
Colts-10.0%-19.4%26.7%14.0%-8.1%0.1%8.9%-12.0%
Titans-11.3%9.1%96.4%29.6%-6.2%-9.0%-3.0%-20.3%
Seahawks-13.2%-16.7%-25.0%-16.7%-0.9%-23.8%-23.1%-21.8%
Lions-13.6%-44.4%14.3%26.3%-4.0%-14.7%-11.1%-25.9%
Packers-14.4%-32.1%66.3%-10.6%-7.3%-16.3%-9.7%-29.8%
Chargers-14.9%-6.1%-28.0%-6.1%4.8%-17.4%-21.2%-16.2%
Chiefs-15.0%8.0%-55.0%50.0%-0.4%-4.2%-3.9%1.5%
Patriots-16.4%36.0%45.7%9.7%-0.7%-7.4%-6.8%-16.6%
49ers-18.8%0.6%62.9%-56.8%-10.2%-20.2%-11.2%-23.8%
Vikings-23.9%-5.0%18.8%8.6%3.0%-2.9%-5.7%-10.0%
Rams-24.6%14.3%-36.8%-89.2%19.2%4.6%-12.2%30.0%

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NFL Run Defense, Through Week 5

TeamAttemptsYardsTDsYPA
Seahawks-10.7%-37.0%-71.2%-29.4%
Broncos-16.0%-36.9%59.1%-24.8%
Bills-20.5%-39.2%-100.0%-23.5%
Lions-15.7%-35.0%-7.7%-22.9%
Cardinals-20.1%-35.4%25.0%-19.1%
Ravens-10.9%-25.9%-28.0%-16.9%
Buccaneers27.8%6.8%62.9%-16.4%
49ers-32.8%-40.4%-49.3%-11.3%
Patriots-4.3%-14.6%-9.5%-10.8%
Dolphins7.4%-2.7%40.6%-9.4%
Titans11.8%1.7%-5.3%-9.0%
Jets1.7%-4.4%-24.0%-6.0%
Raiders30.6%26.5%50.0%-3.2%
Vikings12.3%8.8%11.8%-3.2%
Redskins3.1%0.6%-24.0%-2.4%
Saints-0.2%1.7%-64.2%1.9%
Falcons30.8%35.0%123.5%3.2%
Chargers-21.2%-18.2%-34.5%3.9%
Browns17.5%22.2%53.8%4.0%
Packers39.8%45.4%62.9%4.0%
Eagles22.5%28.0%-41.5%4.5%
Giants-11.7%-6.6%42.5%5.9%
Bears-3.0%5.4%60.0%8.6%
Jaguars9.6%20.1%23.1%9.5%
Bengals7.6%19.0%-14.3%10.6%
Chiefs-7.6%3.7%-100.0%12.2%
Colts-10.6%2.2%111.1%14.4%
Rams18.9%36.7%14.3%14.9%
Steelers-9.4%4.3%-18.6%15.2%
Cowboys-20.9%-6.5%-28.8%18.2%
Texans0.8%22.4%-24.0%21.4%
Panthers-4.5%26.6%23.1%32.6%

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NFL Total Defense, Through Week 5

TeamYPGTDYards/TD
Ravens-11.40%-50.59%79.31%
Bills-13.27%-44.58%56.50%
Bengals2.21%-33.33%53.31%
Texans8.47%-19.15%34.16%
Chiefs-8.89%-26.36%23.72%
Lions-20.52%-34.69%21.71%
Seahawks-19.13%-31.12%17.41%
Chargers-10.42%-16.67%7.50%
Cardinals1.69%-4.07%6.01%
Giants-4.48%-9.13%5.12%
Packers4.41%-0.48%4.91%
Patriots-10.37%-12.82%2.82%
Steelers-5.10%-7.32%2.39%
Chargers-16.02%-15.29%-0.86%
Cowboys-4.47%-0.48%-4.01%
Falcons14.28%21.28%-5.77%
Titans-6.92%3.85%-10.36%
Saints-0.82%10.83%-10.51%
49ers-26.02%-14.69%-13.27%
Colts-6.65%8.57%-14.02%
Jaguars9.48%28.00%-14.47%
Vikings-14.91%0.38%-15.23%
Rams-5.90%14.29%-17.66%
Browns6.40%33.33%-20.20%
Bears7.14%36.84%-21.71%
Jets-8.26%18.22%-22.40%
Eagles6.73%39.02%-23.23%
Redskins-3.38%26.67%-23.72%
Panthers0.33%33.33%-24.75%
Buccaneers-0.50%35.11%-26.36%
Raiders6.05%44.23%-26.47%
Dolphins-3.73%33.93%-28.12%

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2014 NFL Power Rankings: Week 6

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Welcome to our first edition of our 2014 NFL Power Rankings. These rankings are not based on my opinions of the teams but instead on how efficient the teams are at scoring and preventing points being scored when compared to their specific schedule. The way we calculate a teams ranking is as follows:

Scoring Efficiency= (teams points scored per game – schedule’s points allowed per game)/(schedules points allowed per game)

Defensive Efficiency = (schedules points scored per game – teams points allowed per game)/(schedules points scored per game)

In all cases a team’s schedule is adjusted to remove games played by that team such that the averages only reflect how their opponents fared against the other 31 NFL teams. Total efficiency sums up the two columns. The predicted wins is based on a regression formula from multiple years of data, though its accuracy is better at the end of the year than now.

Perhaps not surprisingly Denver and Seattle rank as the top two teams in the NFL. Both have faced difficult schedules (Denver has played the number 2, 5, 6 and 12 ranked teams while Seattle has played the number 1, 3, 10, and 27 ranked teams) which has made their starts very impressive. San Diego hits the top 3 with three difficult opponents but also two pushovers.  The Ravens and Colts round out the top 5. The bottom five consists of the Jaguars, Raiders, Buccaneers, Rams, and Jets.

Thus far Denver and Seattle have been the most efficient offenses in the NFL. The Colts, who lead the NFL is scoring, rank 3rd because their schedule has been weaker. The Eagles, who are tied with the Colts, only rank 7th, having also faced a very easy schedule this year. The Giants and Falcons rank 4 and 5. The worst team in the NFL when it comes to scoring points is Oakland who is scoring 47.9% less than their schedule allows this year. Jacksonville is not far behind.

Defensively  there are definitely some surprises with the Ravens, Chargers, Lions, Bills, and Texans making up the top 5 teams. Tampa, Jacksonville, Chicago, Oakland, and Atlanta are the worst at preventing points from being scored.

Thus far the worst division by a landslide is the NFC South with an aggregate score of -105.6 and not one team ranking positive.

Ill add cap figures to the charts next week but here are the rankings through  week 5. Clicking on a header should sort the table.

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NFL Power Rankings, Through Week 5

RankTeamScoring EfficiencyDefensive EfficiencyTotal EfficiencyProjected Wins
1Broncos55.0%20.7%75.7%15.1
2Seahawks46.3%24.5%70.7%14.7
3Chargers13.7%39.5%53.2%13.1
4Ravens4.1%41.7%45.8%12.4
5Colts31.4%5.7%37.1%11.5
6Cardinals14.8%20.6%35.3%11.4
7Giants27.0%4.4%31.3%10.9
8Bengals4.3%24.4%28.7%10.7
9Bills1.1%26.3%27.4%10.6
10Packers23.6%-1.0%22.6%10.1
11Lions-12.8%32.3%19.6%9.9
12Chiefs2.7%15.8%18.6%9.8
13Cowboys12.3%5.7%17.9%9.7
14Texans-9.8%24.9%15.1%9.5
1549ers-5.6%20.4%14.8%9.4
16Patriots10.1%-1.9%8.1%8.8
17Eagles23.0%-26.3%-3.4%7.6
18Falcons25.0%-28.5%-3.5%7.6
19Dolphins18.4%-24.6%-6.2%7.4
20Browns12.9%-21.7%-8.9%7.1
21Saints0.1%-18.5%-18.4%6.2
22Panthers-7.6%-12.1%-19.7%6.1
23Vikings-25.5%3.9%-21.6%6.0
24Steelers-16.0%-6.6%-22.6%5.9
25Bears7.4%-33.7%-26.3%5.5
26Titans-21.8%-6.2%-28.0%5.4
27Redskins-9.4%-19.1%-28.5%5.3
28Jets-25.5%-18.9%-44.4%3.8
29Rams-22.4%-26.6%-49.0%3.3
30Buccaneers-25.9%-38.2%-64.1%1.9
31Raiders-47.9%-29.2%-77.1%0.7
32Jaguars-44.2%-34.7%-78.8%0.5

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Looking at NFL Passing Offenses after 4 Weeks

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With the NFL at the quarter mark I want’s to look at how teams are performing in a number of passing categories based on the schedule they have faced. I like to measure things with an efficiency score which tells me how much better or worse a team is faring compared to their schedule. I do this because it provides more context, in my opinion, than just a raw look at the numbers. For example Andrew Luck has put up phenomenal numbers the last two weeks, but if we take into account the opponents the numbers are not as incredible (though they were still terrific games).

The efficiency numbers I will talk about are the percentage better or worse a team performs in a specific category. You can get this number by adding up the performance of all of a teams opponents, subtract out the teams statistics, and then calculate the percentage better or worse the team is in that particular field.

So who are some of the big winners?

In terms of passing yardage, which is big to those playing fantasy football, the three clear cut winners are the Falcons (44%), Lions (38.8%), and Colts (32.6%) who are just obliterating the defenses they face. The Lions have been a bit more up and down than the other two, but these are the only teams above 30% as the next closest are in the low 20s.

The Colts and the Falcons are also at the top of the charts in terms of touchdowns thrown. The Falcons at 111.5% are more than doubling the expected touchdowns for their opponents. The Giants are second at 90.4% and the Colts are just slightly behind. The Seahawks and Bears have also been high level producers of touchdown passes based on defenses they have played.

Five teams are clocking in at a 60% or better rate in sacks allowed. The Bengals have yet to allow a sack on the season which is pretty incredible even if just through three games. The Ravens, Raiders, Broncos and Texans are the next four teams. This probably holds a bit more weight when adjusted for attempt.

The Cowboys surprisingly top the NFL in completion percentage, ranking 11.2% better than expected. They are followed closely by the Saints at 11.1%. Indy, Denver and Seattle round out the top 5 in completion percentage.

Two of the teams capable of some bigger plays, which Ill judge by yards per completion, are the Falcons (28.9%) and Chargers (27.3%). The Cardinals are just above 21% while the Lions, Bengals and Packers are all above 18%.

Chase Stuart, who runs the website Football Perspective and writes for a number of different sites, is always big on adjusted net yards per attempt so I figured that was worth calculating as well. San Diego is clearly the best team in the NFL in this regard. Though they rank second to the Bengals in their overall ANY/A, their mark of 8.9 is 63% better than their schedule has allowed in other games this season. The Bengals, who rank first with a 9.11, rank 5th here at 45.2% above the expectation level. The teams above them are the Cardinals, Seahawks and Packers.

So that takes care of some of the best teams, what about the worst?

In terms of total yardage the worst performers are the 49ers, Buccaneers, Titans, and Bills, all averaging 12% or worse than expected. San Francisco and Tennessee are not that surprising since they don’t throw the ball that much.  Per attempt the Buccaneers lead the way, followed by the Dolphins and Patriots.

The three worst teams at scoring through the air are the Rams (-52.6%), Vikings (-51.5%) and Titans (-47.6%). Surprisingly the Eagles are 4th worst at -35.7%.

There is no team worse at turning it over than the Buccaneers at 4.5 times the expected amount of picks. Basically the teams they have faced have almost no interceptions (0.27 int/gm)  except against the Buccaneers(1.25 int/gm). The Falcons rank second in this category which is the one negative on their passing game though Ryan has had at least one useless interception that really doesn’t count. Oakland, Jacksonville and the Rams are big  in turnovers too, so those are some target teams to start defenses against.

The Jaguars have had a miserable time protecting the QB and the numbers back that up tremendously. They are currently are allowing 275% more sacks than their opponents usually produces. The next closest team is at -120%, so this is a staggering bad number.  Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Tampa, and Dallas are the other big sacked teams.

When we look at ANY/A, the Buccaneers are in a class of their own at -41.3%. Next up is the Jaguars at -33.6%. Minnesota, Tennessee, and Oakland round out the bottom 5.

The following chart is sortable so you can find out where yourfavorite team ranks in each category.

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TeamYardsTDsIntsSacksComp %Y/AY/CANY/A
Falcons44.0%111.5%230.0%-42.7%2.1%31.5%28.9%29.5%
Lions38.8%-28.6%-25.0%26.9%4.4%25.0%19.8%27.1%
Colts32.6%88.2%37.5%-54.2%8.6%15.1%6.0%35.3%
Redskins22.2%-25.0%50.0%-7.7%6.5%17.4%10.2%6.3%
Panthers22.0%12.5%-100.0%50.0%3.2%11.8%8.3%17.5%
Eagles19.9%-35.7%33.3%-40.0%-9.8%-2.0%8.7%-6.6%
Saints19.6%37.5%-25.0%-14.1%11.1%-4.7%-14.2%7.0%
Broncos19.0%64.1%-66.7%-63.6%8.6%9.4%0.7%44.7%
Packers14.1%45.6%-72.5%-1.8%4.6%24.2%18.7%50.0%
Steelers13.6%-2.9%-8.3%101.7%1.8%7.8%5.8%3.2%
Bears13.3%76.5%9.1%-11.1%7.2%3.4%-3.6%15.6%
Giants11.4%90.4%96.4%-31.3%7.6%11.0%3.2%12.2%
Ravens11.3%25.0%-54.5%-68.8%4.3%10.6%6.1%43.0%
Jets10.2%-33.3%36.4%35.0%-9.7%-2.9%7.6%-17.3%
Rams8.7%-52.6%100.0%40.0%1.8%1.9%0.1%-20.1%
Chargers8.0%25.0%-75.0%-50.0%3.3%31.5%27.3%63.1%
Cardinals4.8%-7.7%-100.0%0.0%-9.0%10.4%21.3%54.5%
Bengals4.4%-10.0%-57.1%-100.0%2.9%22.2%18.8%45.2%
Cowboys3.4%6.9%37.5%100.0%11.2%18.9%6.9%4.7%
Dolphins3.3%-10.0%-25.0%3.8%-12.4%-15.3%-3.3%-11.0%
Raiders-0.5%-31.8%157.1%-66.7%1.4%-7.4%-8.8%-21.7%
Chiefs-0.8%13.2%-41.1%55.4%5.6%16.1%9.9%26.5%
Jaguars-0.9%-30.8%114.3%275.0%-0.8%-0.9%-0.1%-33.6%
Patriots-3.5%-31.8%-33.3%20.0%-10.9%-13.3%-2.8%-15.0%
Vikings-5.9%-51.5%83.3%120.0%-11.9%-0.7%12.6%-23.1%
Texans-7.2%-25.0%36.4%-60.0%-0.2%15.5%15.8%13.3%
Seahawks-9.0%77.8%-70.4%-11.1%8.5%20.2%10.8%50.6%
Browns-9.5%-35.7%-100.0%0.0%-1.0%1.8%2.9%2.2%
Bills-12.9%-25.0%-25.0%-40.0%-14.0%-4.1%11.6%-0.5%
Titans-14.1%-47.6%37.5%44.0%-11.5%1.2%14.3%-22.6%
Buccaneers-14.6%-19.1%358.3%100.0%-11.0%-18.8%-8.7%-41.3%
49ers-14.6%-28.3%-15.4%96.4%4.3%3.4%-0.9%-8.3%

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Ranking the Super Bowl Champions

[adsenseyu1] For those of you who enjoy the Power Rankings I do during the season here is a look at the efficiency rankings of all the Super Bowl champions. For those unfamiliar with the rankings what these percentiles measure is the percent a team either scores or prevents an opponent from scoring above or below their schedules average for the season. So for example a team with a scoring efficiency of 25% means that team scored 25% more points per game than their opponents gave up that season. A defensive score of 25% means that a team held their opponents to 25% below their normal scoring output on the season. The stats are for regular season only.

While most people consider the 1985 Bears the greatest team of all time they actually only rank 4th on this system. The top team is the little praised Redskins who really dominated the league in 1991. The team’s opponents allowed just 19 PPG while the Redskins scored over 30. It’s the top performing scoring unit in the history. The defense wasn’t a slouch either holding teams to 24% below their averages.

The 1996 Packers, who looked like they were going to be the next dynasty franchise, ranked second with a tremendous all around tea. The 73 Dolphins rank 3rd and were far superior to the undefeated team in 1972 that faced a much easier schedule. The 75 Steelers fill out the top 10.  The worst SB champions have been the 70 Colts, 11 Giants, 07 Giants, 01 Patriots, and 87 Redskins, though it’s the bottom 4 that are teams that really surprise as being on the list of champions.

The most productive scoring came from the 91 Redskins, 77 Cowboys, 98 Broncos, 09 Saints, and 94 49ers. Only two teams had a below average scoring output and those were the 01 Patriots and 02 Buccaneers. The 90 Giants, 00 Ravens, and 81 49ers would round out the bottom 5. Defensively the best unit was not the 85 Bears or 00 Ravens but the 73 Dolphins who just edge ot the 02 Buccaneers, who I think people forget when discussing the great defensive teams. The 66 Packers, 85 Bears, and 75 Steelers are the other best ranking teams. At the bottom of the list are the 06 Colts, 11 Giants, 09 Saints, 07 Giants, and 98 Broncos, all of whom were below average.

Perhaps not so surprisingly is that no teams from the current era are close to the top of this list as the NFL is filled with parity and a lack of dominant teams that can run all the way to a title. The 2004 Patriots just cracked the top 10 and the next closest team is the 00 Ravens at 19 and 10 Packers at 22. Of the 13 lowest ranking teams, 6 are from 2001 onwards.

The current era will be represented better by either the Seahawks or Broncos either of whom would rank in the top 20. The Broncos would have the best scoring output of any team on this list but would also grab the “title” for worst defense and it would be by a wide margin. It would be unlikely  to see either mark broken anytime soon. The Seahawks defense would rank 9th all time, which is pretty impressive considering the way the rules have skewed to the offenses in this era.

The table below should be fully sortable.

Super Bowl Champion Rankings

RankYearTeamOffDefTotal
11991Washington Redskins60.77%24.51%85.28%
21996Green Bay Packers45.84%32.45%78.29%
31973Miami Dolphins30.38%45.89%76.27%
41985Chicago Bears31.03%43.10%74.13%
51975Pittsburgh Steelers24.49%42.65%67.14%
61984San Francisco 49?ers36.26%28.10%64.36%
71966Green Bay Packers18.57%43.55%62.12%
81999St. Louis Rams39.72%22.12%61.84%
91994San Francisco 49?ers48.21%10.52%58.73%
102004New England Patriots31.97%26.73%58.70%
111969Kansas City Chiefs16.30%40.95%57.25%
121977Dallas Cowboys54.44%2.23%56.67%
131972Miami Dolphins19.37%35.96%55.33%
141993Dallas Cowboys29.30%25.13%54.43%
151979Pittsburgh Steelers30.93%23.05%53.98%
161997Denver Broncos39.62%13.61%53.23%
171989San Francisco 49?ers27.18%25.88%53.06%
181998Denver Broncos51.09%-0.48%50.61%
192000Baltimore Ravens5.62%42.35%47.97%
201992Dallas Cowboys31.01%16.59%47.60%
211971Dallas Cowboys40.34%6.54%46.88%
222010Green Bay Packers12.70%33.37%46.07%
231978Pittsburgh Steelers13.02%33.05%46.07%
241995Dallas Cowboys29.72%15.68%45.40%
251967Green Bay Packers16.18%28.73%44.91%
262008Pittsburgh Steelers9.30%35.15%44.45%
272009New Orleans Saints50.80%-6.76%44.04%
281976Oakland Raiders31.73%12.10%43.83%
292002Tampa Bay Buccaneers-2.94%45.79%42.85%
302005Pittsburgh Steelers22.48%20.24%42.72%
311986New York Giants13.39%27.10%40.49%
321982Washington Redskins13.18%24.98%38.16%
331990New York Giants1.17%36.89%38.06%
341968New York Jets33.21%4.01%37.22%
352003New England Patriots12.74%23.67%36.41%
361974Pittsburgh Steelers8.66%25.50%34.16%
371981San Francisco 49?ers6.42%24.07%30.49%
381983Oakland Raiders20.68%8.27%28.95%
391988San Francisco 49?ers19.16%8.88%28.04%
402006Indianapolis Colts32.58%-7.96%24.62%
411980Oakland Raiders12.23%6.33%18.56%
422012Baltimore Ravens11.44%6.74%18.18%
431987Washington Redskins7.13%10.26%17.39%
442001New England Patriots-1.54%12.58%11.04%
452007New York Giants9.94%-0.61%9.33%
462011New York Giants15.29%-7.09%8.20%
471970Baltimore Colts8.02%-0.07%7.95%

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