Power Rankings

2014 Final NFL Power Rankings

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

[adsenseyu1]

With the season now complete we have our final power rankings for the season. Overall the predictions were pretty good this year with an average error of 0.8 for each team. The biggest overachievers on the season looked to the Cardinals and Lions who won 2.4 and 2.1 more games than expected this year. The biggest underachievers were Tampa Bay and the Giants, who would have been expected to win 2.1 and 1.4 more games than they actually did.

The Patriots ended up claiming the top spot for the year. The best teams in the NFL, by far, were the Patriots, Broncos, Seahawks and Packers. Of those teams Seattle is the team best suited to deal with a dud showing by their dominant unit as they are a bit more balanced than the other three teams. If the Packers or Broncos have a no show on offense it is unlikely that they would win those spots.

The best scoring teams of the year were the Broncos, Packers, Patriots, and Eagles. In Philadelphia’s case I think a larger amount than normal is due to special teams play. The worst offenses were the Jaguars, Titans, and Buccaneers, not surprisingly the teams who will have the top three picks in the NFL draft. Actually 6 of the 7 worst ranking offenses will be in the top 6. Only the Browns avoided a top draft showing despite the complete lack of offense.

From a defensive standpoint the best teams were the Seahawks, Lions, and Bills with Seattle being by far the most dominant team. The worst teams were the Raiders, Bears, and Redskins.

The teams that faced the most high powered offenses were the Bengals (23.44 PPG), Jaguars(23.43), and Jets(23.23). The Steelers, Broncos and Falcons faced the least imposing offenses. Toughest defensive schedules belonged to all AFC West teams in Oakland, Denver, and San Diego all of whom faced schedules between that allowed between 20.75 and 21.5 PPG. The Texans, Bucs, and Cowboys faced the worst defenses with averages coming in between 23.5 and 23.9 PPG.

NFL Power Rankings, Final

RankTeamScoring EfficiencyDefensive EfficiencyTotal EfficiencyProjected WinsDifference
1Patriots34.5%13.5%47.9%12.5-0.5
2Broncos44.1%-2.3%41.9%11.90.1
3Seahawks10.7%30.8%41.5%12.00.0
4Packers37.5%2.1%39.5%11.70.3
5Ravens10.3%15.6%25.9%10.5-0.5
6Cowboys24.0%1.2%25.2%10.41.6
7Colts25.7%-1.3%24.4%10.30.7
8Eagles31.6%-11.4%20.3%9.90.1
9Chiefs-1.7%21.8%20.2%9.9-0.9
10Bills-3.4%21.8%18.5%9.8-0.8
11Steelers21.9%-7.3%14.7%9.41.6
12Texans-2.9%13.8%10.9%9.00.0
13Lions-14.7%23.8%9.1%8.92.1
14Bengals0.1%8.3%8.4%8.81.7
15Dolphins12.3%-4.4%7.9%8.7-0.7
16Cardinals-12.4%18.6%6.2%8.62.4
17Chargers1.1%1.5%2.7%8.20.8
18Giants4.2%-10.0%-5.9%7.4-1.4
19Rams-7.3%0.3%-7.0%7.3-1.3
2049ers-15.0%7.2%-7.8%7.30.7
21Vikings-13.1%5.0%-8.2%7.2-0.2
22Panthers-8.9%-0.7%-9.6%7.10.4
23Saints10.2%-19.9%-9.7%7.00.0
24Browns-20.2%6.6%-13.6%6.70.3
25Falcons3.9%-18.8%-14.8%6.6-0.6
26Jets-20.3%-7.9%-28.2%5.3-1.3
27Bears-10.1%-21.1%-31.2%5.00.0
28Redskins-18.3%-20.0%-38.4%4.4-0.4
29Buccaneers-27.2%-13.5%-40.8%4.1-2.1
30Jaguars-33.8%-9.9%-43.7%3.9-0.9
31Raiders-23.8%-25.5%-49.3%3.3-0.3
32Titans-31.3%-19.7%-51.0%3.2-1.2

[adsenseyu4]

NFL Power Rankings, Week 17

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

[adsenseyu1]

It’s been an interesting final couple of weeks to the 2014 season. Most of the top teams in the NFL have fared poorly down the stretch, with falling win projections and performance. The exceptions are the Patriots, who have been more or less status quo over the period, and the Seahawks who have taken over the NFC.

The team coming on the strongest at the end of the season has actually been the Cowboys who have pulled off two upsets against the Eagles and Colts, and in general played much better as of late. Also playing much better have been the Giants and Falcons. Atlanta can make the playoffs and would have a chance at beating both the Cardinals and Lions if they hosted those teams.  Next week we’ll see how off the predicted wins ended up being from the real thing.

NFL Power Rankings, Through Week 16

RankChangeTeamScoring EfficiencyDefensive EfficiencyTotal EfficiencyProjected Wins
1–Patriots39.2%12.8%52.0%12.9
2+3Seahawks11.8%28.2%40.0%11.8
3-1Broncos40.5%-1.6%39.0%11.6
4-1Packers33.6%3.2%36.8%11.5
5+1Ravens10.6%14.7%25.3%10.4
6-2Colts27.8%-3.1%24.8%10.3
7+7Cowboys20.4%1.3%21.7%10.0
8–Eagles30.6%-11.8%18.8%9.7
9+1Chiefs-2.2%17.7%15.5%9.5
10-2Bills-2.9%17.7%14.8%9.4
11–Dolphins12.2%2.5%14.7%9.4
12+3Texans-2.5%15.3%12.8%9.2
13+1Steelers19.9%-9.1%10.8%9.0
14-2Lions-16.3%26.6%10.4%9.0
15+1Bengals0.4%9.7%10.2%9.0
16-5Cardinals-11.8%20.5%8.8%8.9
17–Chargers4.2%0.6%4.9%8.4
18+5Giants4.4%-9.2%-4.7%7.5
19+5Falcons9.3%-15.2%-5.9%7.4
20-2Rams-4.8%-1.4%-6.2%7.4
21-1Vikings-9.7%2.7%-7.0%7.3
22-3Saints10.4%-19.3%-8.9%7.1
23-249ers-16.8%7.5%-9.3%7.1
24–Browns-19.4%6.1%-13.3%6.8
25–Panthers-12.9%-5.9%-18.8%6.2
26–Bears-7.2%-24.6%-31.8%5.0
27–Jets-26.7%-7.0%-33.7%4.8
28–Redskins-18.6%-17.0%-35.6%4.6
29–Buccaneers-28.1%-13.5%-41.6%4.1
30+1Raiders-23.9%-21.3%-45.1%3.7
31-1Jaguars-35.2%-10.0%-45.2%3.7
32–Titans-29.9%-22.6%-52.5%3.0

[adsenseyu4]

NFL Power Rankings, Week 16

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

[adsenseyu1]

I’m a bit short on time this week so no real commentary on the rankings. If you have any questions feel free to ask in the comments and Ill try to get back to you on it.

NFL Power Rankings, Through Week 15

RankChangeTeamScoring EfficiencyDefensive EfficiencyTotal EfficiencyProjected Wins
1–Patriots47.9%12.8%60.7%13.7
2–Broncos44.6%2.6%47.3%12.4
3–Packers38.3%-1.6%36.7%11.4
4–Colts34.2%1.3%35.5%11.3
5–Seahawks8.1%24.6%32.8%11.1
6–Ravens13.0%16.5%29.5%10.8
7–Eagles33.2%-10.8%22.4%10.1
8+2Bills-1.9%21.8%19.9%9.9
9–Chiefs3.4%15.8%19.3%9.8
10+1Cardinals-8.1%23.9%15.8%9.5
11-3Dolphins7.6%8.1%15.7%9.5
12–Lions-14.9%26.5%11.5%9.1
13+3Cowboys16.4%-6.9%9.5%8.9
14+1Steelers19.8%-11.6%8.2%8.7
15-1Texans-4.6%12.3%7.7%8.7
16+2Bengals-5.3%12.4%7.1%8.7
17-4Chargers-0.1%6.1%5.9%8.6
18-1Rams-4.3%2.1%-2.2%7.8
19+1Saints13.6%-19.2%-5.6%7.4
20+1Vikings-16.0%8.3%-7.7%7.3
21+149ers-21.9%12.4%-9.5%7.1
22+2Giants-1.0%-8.8%-9.9%7.0
23–Falcons8.6%-18.8%-10.2%7.0
24-5Browns-17.6%6.0%-11.6%6.9
25–Panthers-13.3%-7.1%-20.3%6.1
26–Bears-7.6%-26.4%-34.0%4.8
27–Jets-26.9%-12.4%-39.3%4.3
28–Redskins-20.2%-21.8%-42.0%4.0
29–Buccaneers-24.6%-18.6%-43.2%3.9
30+2Jaguars-35.7%-11.6%-47.3%3.5
31-1Raiders-26.7%-22.8%-49.5%3.3
32-1Titans-28.7%-21.8%-50.5%3.2

[adsenseyu4]

NFL Power Rankings, Week 15

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

The big three teams remain intact but slowly Seattle has made their way back into the mix of top teams in the NFL.  It’s been an interesting run for Seattle with our rankings. They remained pretty high even when the team wasn’t winning early in the year, but as their struggles continued they started to fall, eventually dropping to 15.  The fact that they have bounced back to number 5 is pretty outstanding as usually once teams go that far down that’s it.

At the rate they are going they will end up with the best defensive efficiency by the end of the season. They are currently holding teams to 23.7% below their average. The only team better is Detroit at  27.1%.

[adsenseyu6]

The other interesting team is the Ravens who these ranks have been high on all year in spite of their record. They are the final team with a 30% or higher total efficiency and are the most balanced team in the NFL, outscoring their opponents average by 14.4% and holding opponents offense down by 17.5%. They should be favored to win the AFC North and are the one team that can really beat you in different ways. Teams like the Broncos, Packers, and Colts are completely one dimensional. If their offense has a really bad game they will get upset in the playoffs. New England is the only other team that has the weaker unit capable of getting by in the event the stronger one lets down.

The 49ers have really fallen on hard times this year and at number 22 and rapidly falling look to be finished after a three year run near the top of these rankings. Defensively they are still a very good team. They rank 8th in the NFL at preventing points. But the offense is atrocious. The move away from the run game and reliance on the pass has killed them.

Their scoring output is 21% below average expectations. The only teams worse are the Buccaneers, Jets, Titans, Raiders, and Jaguars. None of those teams have a QB making more than $5 million let alone close to $20 million a season. The next closest high priced bad offense Kaepernick’s would be Stafford’s Lions at 15.7% below expectations. The only other higher priced player in the double digit negatives is Andy Dalton at -10.6%. The Bears at -5% are the only other team with a high priced QB to be in the negatives.

In looking at those names, these are the QB’s that have made up the new era mid tier salary range. Almost every one of them made someone scratch their head when they heard the numbers come in for a variety of reasons. Some teams protected themselves more than others, but the bottom line is mid tier QB has been poor this season.

NFL Power Rankings, Through Week 14

RankChangeTeamScoring EfficiencyDefensive EfficiencyTotal EfficiencyProjected Wins
1–Patriots41.9%11.7%53.5%13.0
2–Broncos45.4%0.0%45.4%12.3
3–Packers41.7%-0.8%40.9%11.8
4–Colts35.2%-2.0%33.2%11.1
5+3Seahawks8.7%23.7%32.3%11.1
6-1Ravens14.4%17.5%31.9%11.0
7–Eagles31.4%-5.1%26.3%10.5
8-2Dolphins8.9%13.5%22.3%10.1
9+1Chiefs0.2%17.7%17.9%9.7
10-1Bills-1.6%19.2%17.6%9.7
11–Cardinals-6.3%21.5%15.3%9.5
12–Lions-15.6%27.1%11.5%9.1
13+1Chargers2.5%5.3%7.8%8.7
14-1Texans-2.1%9.7%7.6%8.7
15+3Steelers18.3%-12.0%6.4%8.6
16+1Cowboys10.7%-6.5%4.2%8.4
17+4Rams-1.4%0.6%-0.8%7.9
18-2Bengals-10.6%8.0%-2.6%7.8
19+1Browns-13.8%10.2%-3.6%7.7
20-5Saints12.6%-21.1%-8.5%7.1
21+1Vikings-17.5%8.9%-8.6%7.2
22-349ers-21.0%12.0%-9.0%7.2
23–Falcons8.3%-19.1%-10.7%6.9
24–Giants-1.5%-9.7%-11.1%6.9
25+1Panthers-13.5%-6.8%-20.3%6.1
26-1Bears-5.0%-25.1%-30.0%5.1
27+1Jets-25.8%-13.6%-39.4%4.3
28-1Redskins-19.6%-20.5%-40.2%4.2
29+1Buccaneers-25.0%-18.5%-43.6%3.9
30+2Raiders-27.6%-18.2%-45.8%3.7
31-2Titans-27.1%-21.6%-48.7%3.4
32-1Jaguars-36.2%-12.8%-49.0%3.4

NFL Power Rankings, Week 14

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

[adsenseyu1]

Not much in the way of changes this week which is to be expected this late in the season. These rankings don’t overreact to a win or loss too much at this stage.  Teams with a very negative trend, however, are the Cowboys (6 spot drop in two weeks) and Cardinals (4 spot drop over 2 weeks), neither of whom ranked that highly here to begin with despite the lofty records. Their drops are a combination of performance and their schedules looking less impressive each week.

Looking ahead the good teams that might send up the biggest warning flags moving forward are the Bengals, Cowboys, Cardinals, Browns, Chargers, 49ers, Lions, and Steelers. These are the teams that are really exceeding their expected performance in terms of wins and might have a difficult time avoiding some regression, though remaining strength of schedule certainly plays a role in that outcome. The playoff hopefuls who probably elicit the most bullish reactions would be the Patriots, Ravens, Dolphins, Saints, Colts, Broncos, Packers, and Bills.

Taking the actual schedule into account we are probably looking at the Patriots and Broncos finishing with the top 2 records in the AFC with the Colts coming in third. Indianapolis has the easiest path while the others have some difficult games so they could sneak one of the top two spots. Buffalo probably plays the biggest role in determining the seeding as their defense should have them competing against the Patriots and Broncos. I would favor the Ravens in the NFC North, though they have found ways to lose games they should be winning this year. Their game against Miami will likely be telling. I’d peg Kansas City and Cincinnati as the wildcard teams. I’d put Miami and Pittsburgh just outside the playoffs.

In the NFC I think it would be surprising if the Packers and Eagles were not number 1 and 2. Seattle/Arizona is interesting. The Seahawks only game they should lose is against Philadelphia, but that may not be enough. If Arizona loses this week to Kansas City its probably a strong sign that Seattle will be the three seed, but if they win Seattle needs to beat Philly to take it. The Saints should be favored to run the table to get to 9 wins and win the division by two games over Atlanta. I have Detroit as the other wildcard team in the NFC. Their schedule of Tampa, Minnesota, and Chicago the next three weeks is among the most favorable in the NFL. Dallas I have 7th at 10 wins.

NFL Power Rankings, Through Week 13

RankChangeTeamScoring EfficiencyDefensive EfficiencyTotal EfficiencyProjected Wins
1–Patriots47.0%8.8%55.8%13.2
2–Broncos44.8%-0.4%44.4%12.2
3–Packers40.6%3.0%43.6%12.1
4+2Colts35.4%0.0%35.4%11.3
5–Ravens14.9%14.3%29.2%10.8
6-2Dolphins12.8%15.0%27.8%10.6
7+3Eagles33.6%-6.5%27.1%10.5
8-1Seahawks7.2%19.7%27.0%10.6
9+2Bills1.5%19.1%20.6%10.0
10-2Chiefs1.0%18.7%19.7%9.9
11-2Cardinals-7.2%20.1%12.8%9.2
12+3Lions-19.1%27.7%8.6%8.9
13+1Texans-1.8%9.8%8.0%8.8
14+2Chargers3.4%3.0%6.4%8.6
15+2Saints22.5%-18.3%4.2%8.3
16-4Bengals-10.1%14.3%4.2%8.4
17-4Cowboys5.5%-2.9%2.5%8.2
18–Steelers12.4%-13.4%-1.0%7.9
19–49ers-19.1%16.7%-2.4%7.8
20–Browns-14.2%8.4%-5.8%7.5
21+3Rams-0.7%-6.2%-6.9%7.3
22–Vikings-19.5%11.5%-8.0%7.3
23–Falcons4.5%-19.0%-14.5%6.6
24-3Giants-4.2%-14.4%-18.5%6.2
25–Bears-5.8%-24.0%-29.8%5.1
26–Panthers-18.1%-14.5%-32.6%4.9
27–Redskins-13.1%-21.3%-34.4%4.7
28+2Jets-28.6%-11.0%-39.6%4.3
29–Titans-22.7%-17.7%-40.5%4.2
30+1Buccaneers-25.8%-16.3%-42.1%4.0
31+1Jaguars-35.8%-11.8%-47.6%3.5
32-4Raiders-32.1%-20.4%-52.5%3.0

[adsenseyu4]

OTC NFL Power Rankings: Week 12

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

[adsenseyu2]

Following their blowout win against the Colts, the Patriots vault to the top spot in the rankings. The Packers also had a major jump after stifling the Eagles while the Broncos fell to number 3 off their bad loss to the Rams.

Looking through the list, the OTC top 10 is an interesting group of teams. There are really no balanced teams in the group at all. The Patriots, Packers, Broncos, and Colts are all very efficient at scoring points but not nearly as good at preventing them. Still they trend above average. The Ravens, Dolphins, Chiefs, and Cardinals are all mediocre to poor offenses but are having incredible defensive seasons. I guess the Eagles and Seahawks would be the most balanced. Both are average offenses combined with good but not standout defensive units.

[adsenseyu6]

At the bottom of the pile, the Rams made a leap up while the Redskins took a big dive down. Tampa Bay’s win helped push them out of the bottom spot.

NFL Power Rankings, Through Week 11

RankChangeTeamScoring EfficiencyDefensive EfficiencyTotal EfficiencyProjected Wins
1+2Patriots30.9%13.5%44.4%12.2
2+6Packers28.0%10.3%38.3%11.6
3-2Broncos21.1%14.0%35.0%11.3
4+1Ravens8.4%22.9%31.3%11.0
5+1Dolphins1.5%29.4%31.0%11.0
6-4Colts22.7%6.6%29.3%10.8
7-3Chiefs-4.3%33.5%29.2%10.8
8+1Cardinals-7.6%31.0%23.4%10.3
9+1Seahawks-0.2%16.5%16.3%9.6
10-3Eagles13.7%0.0%13.7%9.3
11–Lions-29.2%40.8%11.5%9.2
12+1Cowboys11.5%-0.1%11.4%9.1
13+5Texans-15.0%21.3%6.2%8.6
14+1Bills-14.9%20.7%5.8%8.6
15-1Chargers-14.2%20.0%5.8%8.6
16-4Saints5.0%-1.8%3.2%8.3
17+3Bengals-15.3%18.3%2.9%8.3
18-2Steelers2.6%-0.6%2.0%8.2
19–49ers-21.4%21.7%0.3%8.1
20-3Browns-21.1%21.2%0.1%8.0
21–Giants-17.4%3.2%-14.2%6.7
22–Vikings-34.5%16.9%-17.6%6.4
23+1Falcons-13.6%-8.3%-21.9%5.9
24+5Rams-25.7%2.9%-22.7%5.9
25+3Bears-16.6%-8.7%-25.3%5.6
26-1Panthers-25.9%0.1%-25.7%5.6
27–Titans-35.2%6.5%-28.7%5.3
28-5Redskins-24.0%-5.8%-29.8%5.2
29-3Jets-22.3%-10.7%-33.0%4.9
30–Raiders-36.3%1.5%-34.8%4.7
31+1Buccaneers-29.0%-13.9%-42.9%3.9
32-1Jaguars-32.0%-19.1%-51.1%3.2

The OTC NFL Power Rankings: Week 11

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

[adsenseyu2]

I’m sure the big question that will be asked with these rankings is why are the Cardinals and Lions ranked so low?  The teams have combined for 15 wins yet you only project them to finish with about 20 wins total on the year. It’s a fair question.

My rankings are based on a formula that determines how efficient at a team is at scoring points and preventing points against their specific schedule. In the case of both teams they are very efficient in one area (preventing points) and not great in another (scoring them).

Arizona’s offense ranks with a 3% score. That basically means that on average they will play up or down to their level of opposition. Their number here is actually boosted by those defensive scores last week. The Lions have been far worse having faced the 4th easiest defensive schedule and scoring about 18% below the average output.

Normally such teams would be around 5 wins when playing at that level.  But both have been able to pull out wins that would normally even out by some close losses. That happens every year and almost every year there is one outlier that stands out. Last year that team was the Jets who played at a 3 or 4 win level but won 8 games. The year before I believe it was Detroit that finished with a terrible record that was 4 games or so below their projection.

So anyway we’ll see how things go for the two teams. As for the rest of the list there was little in the way of changes except for the Steelers falling following a terrible loss to the Jets. The Steelers no shows against the Jets and Buccaneers among others really hurts them in these rankings. If they played those teams like they did the Colts they would be a top 10, probably 5, team. They are just a strange team.

[adsenseyu1]

NFL Power Rankings, Through Week 10

RankChangeTeamScoring EfficiencyDefensive EfficiencyTotal EfficiencyProjected Wins
1–Broncos50.2%7.2%57.4%13.4
2–Colts43.0%1.0%44.0%12.1
3–Patriots39.6%-0.5%39.1%11.7
4–Chiefs3.6%26.5%30.2%10.9
5+1Ravens6.4%23.4%29.8%10.8
6-1Dolphins11.5%17.2%28.7%10.7
7–Eagles28.1%-0.1%28.0%10.6
8+2Packers30.1%-3.9%26.2%10.4
9-1Cardinals3.0%21.5%24.5%10.3
10+5Seahawks8.1%9.6%17.7%9.7
11+1Lions-18.3%33.6%15.3%9.5
12+2Saints23.4%-12.1%11.4%9.0
13-2Cowboys8.1%2.4%10.5%9.0
14+2Chargers1.2%8.5%9.8%8.9
15+2Bills-3.1%11.5%8.4%8.8
16-7Steelers13.6%-7.3%6.3%8.6
17+3Browns-7.8%13.2%5.4%8.5
18–Texans-5.2%8.3%3.1%8.3
19–49ers-9.4%10.5%1.1%8.1
20-3Bengals-6.0%1.6%-4.5%7.6
21–Giants-0.7%-8.3%-9.0%7.1
22–Vikings-24.2%7.9%-16.3%6.5
23–Redskins-5.9%-14.5%-20.4%6.0
24–Falcons-1.7%-25.0%-26.7%5.4
25–Panthers-16.4%-13.6%-30.1%5.1
26+3Jets-24.4%-8.9%-33.3%4.9
27–Titans-29.7%-5.0%-34.7%4.7
28-2Bears-9.0%-29.3%-38.3%4.3
29+1Rams-19.3%-20.5%-39.8%4.2
30-2Raiders-26.3%-13.6%-39.9%4.2
31–Jaguars-31.6%-16.3%-47.9%3.5
32–Buccaneers-25.1%-35.2%-60.2%2.3

[adsenseyu4]