Wide Receiver Consistency

In several of my WR and TE tier articles this year, I have used consistency or lack thereof as a reason why a particular player is or is not meeting his contract expectations. However, “Player A is consistent and Player B is not” without supporting analysis isn’t a very strong argument. Today, I would like to explore two methods of determining a player’s consistency: median statistics and frequency of hitting specific milestones.

My earlier posts on receivers and tight ends looked at production when averaged over 16 games. While it is important to look at season totals, a significant missing piece was what to do with players like Marvin Jones who started the season hot, then cooled off significantly. Jones’ 2016 totals should look good when viewed as one number, but the Lions are really getting several games at amazing value and several games where they’re getting well below market value.

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2017 Contract Estimates: Sylvester Williams

As the NFL juggernaut steams toward the most exciting part of the season, General Managers are spending time formulating various virtual team roster models that stretch out as many as three years into the future, beginning with the 2017 league year. One of the important components of a roster model involves decisions revolving around unrestricted free agents.

We have followed the weekly play of interior defensive linemen that signed new contracts in 2016. Keeping with the NT/DT theme, I want to peer into the contract future of the top interior linemen that are set to become UFA’s after the 2016 season ends.

The seven gentlemen we will evaluate are a mix of 3-4 and 4-3 defense players: Nick Fairley, Johnathan Hankins, Bennie Logan, Dontari Poe, Kawann Short, Brandon Williams and Sylvester Williams.

Today’s featured subject is Denver Broncos nose tackle Sylvester Williams.

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New Contract Tracker: Quarterbacks and Interior DL

Earlier this week, we the people decided who we want to lead us into the near future from the Presidential Palace.  Regardless of whether we as individuals supported the eventual winner or not, ultimately it was decided that a radical change was necessary at the top.

After years of what people felt was a whole lot of wheel-spinning and not enough tangible, positive end results, it was clear that the fear of “more of the same” shook many to their core and was the impetus for taking a different path.

I wonder if those in charge of choosing a leader to guide the LA Rams feel empowered to similarly shake things up in the land of 7-9.

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NFL QB Valuations: Top 10

Here is our top 10 QB values for the last three years. Part 1 and Part 2 give the basic criteria used to come up with a salary value for the players as well as the players ranked from 32-11. Ill probably do running back next starting later this week…

  1. Cam Newton, Panthers- $18.389M Value, -$2.37M Benefit

Newton made the big leap last season into the upper tier with his stellar performance. A great deal of Newton’s value is derived from his legs but we are also still waiting for the day when he has competent offensive weapons to throw the ball to. Once he has that we’ll probably get a better idea of just how far he can go. The talent is certainly there and he can make all the throws but he’s likely been told to tuck and run because of the lack of talent on the team. Newton will always have his detractors as there is still an immaturity about him that rubs people the wrong way but he has as good a chance of any of being one of the “generational” quarterbacks of this era. If he has another season like he did in 2015 some of those detractors will begin to buy in. Continue reading NFL QB Valuations: Top 10 »

NFL QB Valuations, 20-11

This week we will be looking at the actual worth of quarterbacks in the NFL based on pure statistical production and the current market prices for quarterbacks. You can read more about the way the salaries are derived as well as see who ranked from 32 to 21 in Part 1. Today we look at numbers 20 to 11.

  1. Ryan Fitzpatrick, FA- $14.906M Value, $???M Benefit

Fitzpatrick is currently in a contractual stalemate with the Jets who are reportedly offering in the ballpark of $7 million a season while Fitzpatrick is looking for over $17 million. Fitzpatrick is one of the more oddball careers in the NFL that is actually a good example of how the negative perception of the big contract can play a role in future contract talks. When Fitzpatrick signed a big deal with the Bills years ago and, not surprisingly, fell flat on his face his stock around the NFL dropped tremendously. Despite the fact that he’s been a steady $14Mish value on a per game basis he’s often found himself fighting for chances and being considered a worse option than players such as Hoyer, Matt Cassel, and McCown. He made the most of his chance last year and while nobody will expect that to happen again the real knock on him is that everyone sees what happened in Buffalo and doesn’t want to chance that happening to them, relegating him to Charlie Whitehurst status most of the last three years. Continue reading NFL QB Valuations, 20-11 »

NFL QB Valuations, 32-21

This week we will be looking at the actual worth of quarterbacks in the NFL based on pure statistical production and the current market prices for quarterbacks. The formulas are based more or less on the net yardage produced by a player over the last three seasons with a weighting scale of 60% for 2015, 25% for 2014, and 15% for 2013. For players who only have two years of service the numbers were adjusted accordingly. I did not include players who were rookies last season. I did make adjustments for players who were injured to prorate their stats to a fuller season (in most cases 13 games) so as to not artificially lower their numbers.  Players benched were not awarded that same luxury since they were not productive because of skill concerns by the coaching staff.

Obviously lists like this are going to favor teams in heavy passing offenses where players can compile numbers and we are not taking into account things like wins, playoff experience, etc… that often goes into valuing a QB. Each players is given a salary value that fits in with his production and a benefit value which shows how much above or below his current annual contract value his production has been. Benefit values greatly favor rookies because they are paid peanuts and often start 16 games. They skew the numbers but I think their presence also illustrates the reasons why teams make the decision to move from a low tier veteran to a rookie when the opportunity presents itself.

Today we look at players ranked from number 32 to 21. Tomorrow will be 20-11 and the following day the top 10. Continue reading NFL QB Valuations, 32-21 »

2016 NFL Free Agency: Cornerbacks Overview

In this weeks free agency feature we will take a look at the cornerbacks who may be available in 2016. As usual there will be no shortage of talent, though only one player looks to be a surefire bet to hit a monster contract in free agency…

Josh Norman, Panthers

Norman will likely win the award for best timing for free agency. He is combining the great season on an undefeated team giving him the kind of press and hype that will always maximize value. Norman currently leads the upcoming group of free agents in passes defensed and is second in interceptions. He doesn’t give up much in the way of completions and is generally regarded as the best corner in the NFL in 2015. All of this obviously adds up to massive money for cornerbacks, a position in ultra high demand last offseason. For Norman this year has basically doubled his value, similar to Byron Maxwell the year before.

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