Following the big trades on Friday there has been so much discussion about the value of draft picks and the importance of the draft that I thought I would have a little fun with the numbers. A few weeks ago I looked at the record of teams following their free agent spending so this time I thought I would look closer at the impact of the draft on teams success.

To start with I went back and looked at all draft picks made between 2014 and 2019 and then calculated their pick values using the Fitzgerald-Spielberger values. I then plotted what was their record in the period following that draft class up to a maximum of four years (2018 would be 3 years and 2019 just two years at this time).

This was a little unexpected as I would have thought there would be a little more correlation between record and draft points but then again there is a thought that bad teams stay bad in the NFL and good teams (with good QBs) overcome limited draft resources. So maybe this isn’t the best way to look at it.

Instead let’s look at the average improvement over the team’s baseline going into each draft.  

This is certainly more in line with expectations and some solid evidence that maximizing draft points through whatever means is going to help teams improve over their priors. Most of the improvement seems to come from maximizing your point allocation in the top 3 rounds of the draft.

If you are curious about just round 1 here is the impact of the first round picks. Note that any team above 3,000 points is clearly a team with multiple 1s in a season (3,000 is the max points for a 1^st round pick).

What if we filter out the teams with multiple 1s and no ones and just look at the results of teams with 1 first round pick (includes trade downs and ups)?

I thought this was interesting because there is a clear trend that the higher the points the more improvement we seem to be getting…up to a point. You can argue where that point is but I would say it is in the ballpark of the 6^th pick in the draft (around 2,100 points) which I think gets the point where anyone in the top of the draft should strongly consider trading down unless you are picking a QB.

However the most important thing to consider is how teams do with their draft selections. Teams should exploit every possibie advantage than can find in inefficiencies in the way that we approach the draft but ultimately all the points in the world don’t help you when you make bad picks in the draft. You not only want good players in the draft but players who are going to contribute for more than just a few years.

While this is not a complete measurement since we still have players on rookie contracts, the final thing I looked at was the actual performance of the rookies who were drafted. To do that I looked at every player drafted from 2014 to 2017 and determined what was the value of their post rookie contract. For players still on option year I used their option salary as the value for the player. Here is how the teams performed between 2015 and 2020 (I used 2015 since often we say the first rookie year is a bust) compared with what their players earned (earnings calculated as averge per year of the next contract).  

This is much more in line with what we would expect to be a driver of success in the NFL. Teams that drafted generally good players were pretty successful between 2015 and 2020 while those who didn’t were pretty bad. The QB position saved a few teams (the Packers, Steelers, etc..) including New England as well as their draft results were poor overall but their value here was driven by the inclusion of two quarterbacks who barely played with them.

While nobody really has any secret method to beat the draft you need to maximize your chances to sneak into that upper right quadrant as best you can. Teams like the Jets have basically been hopeless turning draft capital into bad selections but they should be the exception and not the rule.

It is also important to look at the teams near that bottom right quadrant. These are teams who have had a ton of draft capital and successful individual selection but poor team performance. It is basically a mirror of the top left which was bailed out by QB play. Here we have teams with, more often than not, poor QB play and no matter how good the parts may be in todays NFL there is no path to long term success when the play from the play from the position is replacement level at best. This really leads to the importance of drafting the QB until you hit one but that is a discussion for another day.

In an absolutely wild flurry of moves the Miami Dolphins triggered an early run of draft day trades that would normally be reserved for April. Miami traded down from number 3 to 12 and then jumped back up to number 6 in what essentially is a three way trade between the Dolphins, Eagles, and 49ers. So here are some thoughts on each of the teams moves here.

Dolphins

The Dolphins will give up the 3^rd and 123^rd picks this year as well as their first round pick in 2022 and will acquire pick 6, 102, and 156 from this season as well as the 49ers 1^st round picks in 2022 and 2023. Using the Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart

The difference is basically like gaining the 11th overall pick in the draft. Now some may apply discounts to the draft picks, which I don’t like doing because teams are not always playing for the present and there is no real evidence that teams can predict what is or is not a good draft, nor a good or bad team. Just because I am trading for a 2023 first this year doesn’t make it worth a 3^rd round pick. It will always going to be a number 1 and if your time horizon is two or three years that is how I look at it.

I love this for Miami. Clearly, they had no designs of picking a QB this year because if they did they would not have made this trade. Just based on the discussions they had with the 49ers and Eagles they also now know more about the draft. The Jaguars are taking a QB(we all know that) and  they must know the Jets are taking one now because the Jets would have done this trade if they were sticking with Darnold. Now they know San Francisco will take a QB. That gets into the second part of the trade.

With the top 3 picks going QB-QB-QB that meant that the Eagles pick at 6 is a lock that they can pick one of the top receivers/tight end since there are three players in the mix there. If that position is what they were picking at 3, they will now get it at 6 and save a few dollars on the contract while also picking up all those extra 1s. Basically as long as they have three players in mind at any position they are now a lock to get one of those players. It also puts them in a spot where maybe they can even move back with Carolina when draft day hits if Carolina gets wild for a QB and is in a panic that they will lose out at number 8. It gives Miami so many possibilities by doing the trade now. This is a fantastic move.

As their trade with the Texans has shown there are no certainties in the NFL. Those future 1s could be incredibly valuable like the Houston one was.  If the QB flops they may have the assets needed to move back up. If San Francisco is a dud, and in two of the last three years they have finished with no more than 6 wins, they may just get their own access to a top player. As you can tell I just love this for the Dolphins.

Eagles

The Eagles will give up the 6^th and 156^th picks in the draft and in return get the 12^th and 123^rd picks as well as the Dolphins 2022 first round pick. Here is our value on this one.

The return on this is the 25^th pick in the draft. Like above the value will fluctuate based on what that 2022 1^st round pick is but in any event they will come out ahead on the trade by quite a bit.

The Eagles decision matrix here seemed to be different than the other two teams. Philadelphia initially wanted to trade up for a QB but seemingly wanted to approach this as a traditional trade. Per various reports Philadelphia only had one QB in mind which meant if the Jets selected a QB they would not pull the trigger on a trade with Miami. That would not work for the Dolphins who found the trade partner in San Francisco who would take a blind shot at a QB which left the Eagles with no access to the position they probably wanted.

So they will drop down 6 slots and save about $1.8 million in cap room on that pick this year. They were likely pretty indifferent to players at 6 if they were not married to a receiver which made this a solid trade. The first round pick in 2022 can give them a better chance to find a QB if Jalen Hurts flops and at the least gives them access to another first rounder. Considering the Eagles cap situation and aging roster gaining that first round pick is a big pickup for them.

I’m not as crazy about this trade as the Dolphins one but it is certainly a good move.

49ers

The 49ers will gain the 3^rd pick in the draft and give up the 12^th and 102^nd pick in the draft as well as their first rounders in both 2022 and 2023. Here is the value on this.

This is a massive amount to give up for the 3^rd ranked QB in the draft. This is basically the closest that you will ever get to the Rams/Washington trade where Washington gave up the 6^th overall pick, two future first rounders, and a second rounder for the 2^nd ranked QB (Robert Griffin III). This trade gives up 3,144 points while that one was at 3,776. The value for this is right around what the Eagles paid to move to get Carson Wentz in 2016. Wentz was also the 2^nd ranked QB that year. Basically this is like giving up the top overall pick plus more in the draft to get number 3.

The last time a team traded for the 3^rd valued QB it was the Jets who gave up pick 6 and three second round picks. This turned into the 2^nd ranked QB when the Giants selected a running back with the 2^nd pick in the draft. That was about a 2,900 point differential and pretty close to being like giving up the top pick in the draft for the pick.

A few things here. While I valued the picks above the same way I did for Miami and Philadelphia here we really should discount them.  Why?  You have a coach and front office that has had a losing record in two of the last three years and their time horizon is now not two and three years from now. That makes this move a little closer to reasonable and probably is more like giving up a mid 1^st for the access to a QB.

Teams get desperate in the NFL because of this position. The team made a questionable decision when they made the move on a big contract for Jimmy Garoppolo a few years ago and it has not worked out. They struck out in a bid to sign Tom Brady last year and probably also realized there was no chance to get Matt Ryan this year or next after the Falcons reworked his contract for cap relief. This is basically the only option and only way they can get better at the position.

From a cap perspective this makes sense. Garoppolo is one of the most overpaid players in the NFL and this should open things up for a pay reduction. The starting jobs and most of the backup jobs are gone now and their job is to sell him on playoff incentives if he starts this year and is successful. They have big money tied up in Trent Williams and Arik Armstead and will likely end up with a monster extension for Nick Bosa after 2022. That is a team built for a rookie QB on a cheap deal not an overpriced veteran QB.

Still it is a lot to give up for the 49ers. They must have been worried that someone else would jump ahead of them to make this trade similar to the Jets move years ago. This is a trade that you really can only evaluate after the pick is made. If whomever they pick plays like Sam Darnold, who the Jets selected, it will be an absolute disaster for the 49ers. They need this pick to be a player who earns a legit high end QB contract three or four years from now. Anything else and it is a failure.

I’m not enough of a draft person to know if this is or is not worth it for any of the top 3 QBs, but I will say just like when the Jets made their move that you have to take risks at this position. You cant survive in the NFL playing the free agency game and going year to year with Ryan Fitzpatrick or finding mid grade starters and convincing yourself they can be great if you pay them well the way the 49ers did with Garoppolo.

This move gives them a chance to get their salary cap in order, to be able to make more moves in free agency, and most importantly give them a chance to upgrade the most important position in football for the next decade. Could they have tried to wait this out a little longer?  Maybe, but if you like a player you may as well just go for broke rather than watching the Panthers or Eagles pass you by leaving you with nothing but replacement level play at QB for the next few years.

The NFL draft always brings about confusion with the way rookie contracts work with the salary cap so this will be our annual look at what will be the actual impact on teams salary cap space once all rookies are signed to hopefully reduce some of the confusion.

The confusion with the way that the rookie contracts works is due to two things. The first is that it will be reported that every team has a “rookie pool” or “rookie salary cap” to spend on draft picks. In some places it may be reported that this covers all rookie contracts while other will correctly state that it’s a “cap within a cap”. A “cap within a cap” simply means that there is a limit on what every team can pay their rookies and this salary has to fit within the regular salary cap.

As time goes on there will be reports of each teams rookie cap as determined by the NFL. Those will be official totals but in the meantime you can get the estimates on our draft page, though with a new CBA we cant say if this will remain as accurate this year as in years past or not, though I believe it should be close enough. However this leads to the second confusing aspect of it which deals with the total cap space actually required to sign the draft picks.

The reason for this is because most people will see a big total like $11.8 million for the rookie cap and conclude that a team with $10 million in cap space can not sign their draft class without cuts or contract modifications. What people fail to understand is that during this time of year only the top 51 players have their base salaries count on the salary cap and every team has more than 51 players so each rookie will displace another player’s contract on the roster. Either the old player will have his base salary drop out of the calculation while the new base salary climbs in or the rookie will only have the prorated portion of his contract count on the cap.  So the net cap space required to sign rookies is very different from the total rookie cap number.

The easiest way to estimate the number is to take the rookie pool and subtract from it $610,000 multiplied by the number of draft picks. Why $610,000? It’s the minimum salary a player can earn and represents the worst case scenario for a team. Using that formula here is how teams cap space would look following the signing of rookies based on our current cap space estimates and draft pool estimates. The only exception here was the Ravens who wont displace their entire draft class so I adjusted accordingly.

As you can see based on the numbers we currently have only five teams are likely in danger of not having the cap space to sign rookies. Those teams are the Chiefs, Bengals, Falcons, Patriots, and Rams. The Bengals are close enough that they probably have the space if you account for the actual salaries displaced which will be a few $675,000 players rather than $610,000 ones. The Chiefs, Rams and the Patriots will be the ones that will likely have to make some minor tweaks (the reason I’m including the Chiefs is I don’t have any idea what Bashaud Breelands cap number will be this year but assume it will move them negative). The Rams used a June 1 release (Todd Gurley) which will clear around $5 million, but will likely still need to do some changes to get their guys in after that is processed. I would not expect the Rams to rush for anything since they are generally the last team to sign their rookies and do them all on the same day following a seminar they present to their incoming players. Atlanta wait until June 2^nd to sign any players as they will pick up over $10.75 when Desmond Trufant June 1 designated release becomes official.

One last thing to keep in mind is if you see things being reported about a minimum rookie allotment or minimum year one allotment for each team and/or draft pick. That is a minimum number the NFL must pay for a draft pick while the rookie pool represents the max number. In the 9 prior years almost no one has been under the highest possible number and most of that happened in 2011. The only reason an agent should ever consider under would be if the team gave up a big concession like a no tag provision which would be an interesting scenario but to the best of my knowledge has never even been broached. So if you hear those numbers just tune them out.

The other thing you can look at with the table above is the max players under contract if you add in the draft picks. NFL teams are limited to 90 contracted players. Following the draft each rookie is tendered a contract to make things official so they after the draft ends. Miami will be over the 90 person limit so they will have to cut at least two players if they don’t trade any draft selections. The Broncos, Lions, Jets, 49ers, Raiders, Redskins, and Giants will all have at least 80 players under contract. Why is this important?  As soon as the draft concludes teams sign undrafted free agents and the average amount of undrafted players is around 17 per team. Generally every team signs at least 10 (I think last year the only team under and they were way under were the Panthers) so the teams around 80 contracted players will likely make cuts just to sign undrafted players. So unfortunately, decisions made during the draft will likely cost a few players their opportunities before “virtual” workouts even give them a chance to work with the team.

On the opposite end of the spectrum the teams with few players should be the ones that are heavily active in signing undrafted players. These include the Chargers, Ravens, Rams, Titans, and Falcons who will all be under 70 players post draft.

This should be an interesting year for the undrafted process. Since front offices wont be in the same location there may have to be a pecking order in the chaos that usually ensues to make sure they can sign the players. The lack of a rookie showcase practice will also potentially hurt players who often go unsigned but are given tryouts with the other rookies which sometimes leads to a contract. With no practice session to occur teams will either agree to sign even more undrafteds than usual and evaluate them if and when camp opens or those players simply wont get an opportunity at all.

Every now and then around draft time I try to do some type of look at the NFL draft and value of the players selected through some financial means and I decided to go back and do that again this year. This time around I wanted to look back at the first five years of the current CBA, which introduced the rookie wage scale, and look at some summary data that may help us place a better value on a draft pick. Continue reading Using Salary Data to Better Value NFL Draft Picks »

For whatever reason there seems to be a ton of confusion about the amount of cap room actually required to sign rookies following the draft so I wanted to put something together pretty quickly to maybe help clear that confusion. Continue reading The Cap Space Required to Sign Draft Picks »

To lead off, who cares what the public thinks about Kyler Murray’s decision. I see a lot of people questioning the decision or saying this is the better decision for him, so I’ll cover the financial side of the decision, but I just hope that Murray chooses the sport that he is most passionate about because that will likely lead to the best path for him, one he will be less likely to second guess. The word is that he’s chosen football, so hopefully that aligns with what is most important to him.

Continue reading Kyler Murray Has the Potential to Make Much More Money in the NFL »

I posted a few draft stats online the other day and based on response I decided to add some numbers into a post. I’m a little pressed for time today so I’ll simply do a quick overview of what I have done here using the Jets as an example and add some really brief thoughts. If you have any interest in more breakdowns please let me know and Ill see what I can do later this week. All the data that is presented is based on drafts from 2015 through 2018, so basically it identifies the young players on a team. Continue reading Looking at NFL Draft Success Since 2015 »