Revisiting the Jets First Round Picks Since 1995

Every year at draft time there are a few teams that always stand out for their years of futility and one of those teams is the team I cheer for- the New York Jets. In fairness the Jets aren’t as bad as some of the other teams in the last 20 or so years, but when they whiff they usually have whiffed badly and the reactions on draft day have always been priceless. So for fun I decided to go back and look at what could have been for every first round pick the Jets have made since 1995.  Continue reading Revisiting the Jets First Round Picks Since 1995 »

The Retention Rate of the Top Draft Picks

With teams prepared to make pretty big financial commitments to the top picks in the draft I wanted to a quick look back and see what the payoffs were on those picks. This is nothing fancy like my trade value tables or anything like that just a basic look at success rates mainly measured by a teams decision to retain the player. Continue reading The Retention Rate of the Top Draft Picks »

Examining the Proven Performance Escalator

The eve of free agency carries with it the promise of new fortune. When the annual spending spree launches in earnest tomorrow, it will bring life-changing pay raises to dozens of younger players. A number of other fourth-year players, meanwhile, will enjoy more modest pay increases in the coming season due to an aspect of the collective bargaining agreement called the Proven Performance Escalator.

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Projecting The 2017 Compensatory Draft Picks

This article refers specifically to OTC’s projection for the 2017 NFL Draft’s compensatory picks. For details on the basics and methodology of projecting compensatory picks in general, please reference this article.

Furthermore, due to the complexity I have written separate articles on all possible compensatory pick scenarios on the Denver Broncos and Miami Dolphins.  You may find the Broncos’ article at Thin Air, and the Dolphins’ article here at OTC. Continue reading Projecting The 2017 Compensatory Draft Picks »

#CBA2020: Replace The NFL Draft With An Auction

Saw Mike Silver from NFL Network and Sports Illustrated tweeting about the idea of abolishing the draft in a conversation about the Joey Bosa situation. My first reaction to this was that this could make teams have to pay more than the current draft positions dictate as they could be forced to pay closer to fair market value for a player. I decided to take some notes and explore that idea.

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Looking at the NFL Rookie Contracts

I thought it might be fun during the draft to put up our contract estimates for each player but to also show where they should rank by contract annual value. While we all expect a lot from our draft picks and anyone who is not a star is generally considered a bust, in reality we don’t need exceptional play to get fair value for the player. The reason is because the actual player salary is generally so far down on the APY charts that many times average play will justify the actual year by year investment. So the following table will show the basic contract estimates for each player and the current NFL players who rank just above and below the draft picks salary.  Continue reading Looking at the NFL Rookie Contracts »

Drafting Decisions and the Salary Cap 2016

Last year I worked on a draft valuation project that got a bit of attention and I wanted to update the charts for the year. Essentially what we have done is to rework the old trade value charts as developed by the Dallas Cowboys with a financial model that turns every draft slot into an expected salary. The salary reflects the equivalent performance a team would expect from a veteran player that could potentially be signed in free agency. Effectively this allows us to assign a “market price” to a player before he ever steps onto the field. So Ill rehash some of that in here and post the updated numbers for the season.

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