Examining the Upcoming Free Agency of DeMarco Murray

Posted on October 16, 2014February 9, 2015 by Jason Fitzgerald

The Dallas Cowboys will have an interesting contractual decision on their hands with running back DeMarco Murray. Murray is on pace for a 2,000 yard season, a feat just 6 players have accomplished since 1980. He has become the focal point of a Cowboys offense that has become a throwback to the decade where teams featured one running back and the offense flowed through that player. Set to be a free agent the question is how should the Cowboys approach the contract.

The Running Back Market

There is really only one massive contract for running backs, the contract for Adrian Peterson which averages just over $14 million a season. Prior to receiving that contract Peterson’s top season saw him run for 1,760 yards and he had run for no less than 1,298 yards in a season. Former Titans’ running back Chris Johnson had maxed out at 2,006 yards which also led to a contract worth around $14 million a season. Johnson was released this past year and its likely Peterson will be released following this season.

The secondary tier begins with LeSean McCoy of the Eagles at $9 million a season. McCoy earned his deal following a 1,300 yard season that he combined with contributions in the passing game. Arian Foster earned a similar number based on a 1,600 yard season at the age of 24. Matt Forte ranks third in the tier with $7.6 million a year, bringing an all around game to the table. His max rushing yardage was just over 1,200 yards but he was also consistently adding around 500 receiving yards a season.

Free agency has not been kind to runners who hit the market in the last two years. Chris Johnson and Steven Jackson topped the list at $4 million a season. Those players were considered proven commodities, but with a lot of wear and tear on their bodies. Those figures were nearly matched by completely unproven players Toby Gerhart and Donald Brown at $3.5 million a season.

With Johnson’s big contract void and Peterson’s soon to be, those two data points should be essentially useless for Murray. The secondary tier will likely shrink considerably this offseason as almost every one of those players could be a cap casualty following the season. The Chiefs and Seahawks did give moderate extensions to Jamaal Charles and Marshawn Lynch to make certain they reported to training camp, but neither contract indicated a long term commitment to either player. Most likely that will be the tier that Murray will look to fit into with the Cowboys.

The question the Cowboys need to ask is should he fit there?

Is Murray’s Dominance Sustainable?

It’s easy to look at Murray’s numbers and say you have to pay him because the risk of losing him is too great and if he goes the offense may go with him. Thus you simply pay him more than the highest paid player, McCoy, at the position. But when you make statements like that you have to try to gain a better understanding of what Murray is expected to do in the future, rather than overpaying for the present.

The reason many teams began to shift away from the runner dependent systems was because of the inability to sustain the big numbers they were put up at a young age. Millions of dollars would be invested in a player only to have the player’s production rapidly fall off a cliff with no possible out for the team due to the cap charges associated with releasing the player.

There are 43 players who began careers in the NFL after 1980 who posted seasons of more than 1,500 rushing yards and continued to play football (Robert Smith retired following his big season). 13 of those players produced a second season of at least 1,500 yards (Arian Foster is could be number 14 this season if his body can hold up). So it would be fair to say that a back that produces 1,500 yards has around a 30% chance of doing it again. Just 8 of the players produced at least a third 1,500 yard season. Here is the breakdown of 1,500 yard rushers’ future performance.

However, there is another factor that should be considered here and that is age. Many of the players on this list produced many of their dominant seasons in their early 20’s. Murray is already 26 years old. Just 10 players had a second season of 1,500 yards at the age of 27 or older. The only players to have at least a third 1,500 yard season at those ages were Barry Sanders and Tiki Barber. Eric Dickerson was on pace for that type of year in the strike-shortened “scab” season.

There were 21 players in the NFL that had their first 1,500 yard season when they were 26 or older. Of those players just 5 did it again. Those players were Curtis Martin, Larry Johnson, Priest Holmes, Tiki Barber, and Shaun Alexander. I think when you factor age into play you would consider a 23% chance of hitting the 1,500 yard mark one more time and a very small chance (less than 5%) of getting there a third time.

How Many Good Seasons Should Dallas Expect?

For the purpose of this discussion I’ll adjust the 2014 stats and the strike seasons to represent a 16 game season. While we can look at the entire list of 43 players, I think we are better off filtering it down to players who are more representative of Murray’s age. I want to look at players whose first 1,500 yard season came between the ages of 25 and 28 and we want to see how they performed over the next five years of their careers. The reason for the five year period is because this should be the maximum contract length given to any player in the NFL that is not a quarterback.

I think most people have always considered a good season by a running back to be 1,000 or more rushing yards. We can pretty much bank on Murray having at least one season of 1,000 or more yards. Of the group the only player to not gain 1,000 yards at some point after their first 1,500 yard season was Maurice Jones-Drew (McCoy is on pace to do so this season).

Getting a second 1,000 yard season might be more difficult. Of the 24 names who have had a second shot at 1,000 yards only 11 actually produced them. So there is less than a 50% chance that we can plan on Murray being able to give us two years of 1,000 yard production.

It gets bleaker after that. If we look at three years of 1,000 yard production we get Curtis Martin and Fred Taylor. Martin joined the 1,500 yard club when he was 28 years old while Taylor did it at 27. The only player to produce 1,000 yards four times after attaining his first 1,500 yard season in his mid 20’s was Jerome Bettis of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Bettis was a plodder of a back and averaged around 3.8 yards per carry in most of those seasons. It is unlikely that any other team in the NFL would have given him the attempts needed to reach that number.

When can those seasons be expected?

This is also an important question because it gives us some idea of perhaps how best to structure a contract to build in our optimum exit points. Here is the performance breakdown of the set of players used above in the five years following their 1,500 yard season.

What this tells me is that if Murray is to have another great season it is most likely going to happen in 2015. There is a 40% chance that he is going to come in at over 1,200 yards(a majority of those seasons are over 1,300 yards) and a 68% chance I’ll get over 1,000 yards from him.

In 2016 and 2017 the odds begin to move out of Murray’s favor. We have around a 15% chance of the great season and around 40% chance of just having a good season. Most likely if he is to have a second 1,000 yard year it will come in 2016 with a decline in 2017.

2018 and 2019 are not years where we would really consider Murray an asset. The odds are strongly against another 1,000 yard season and the odds are strongly in the favor of producing less than 600 yards. At that age he could be unproductive or simply looking to retire from the wear and tear on his body.

Setting the Price

I want to work from the bottom up with Murray, so the first thing I want to do is determine how much I will guarantee him upon signing his contract. Based on the performance of past players I want to look at a 3 year value for Murray, which is going to equal the guarantee I offer him on a 5 year contract. The guarantee is the most important part of the deal because it will define much of the structure since I need to have years 4 and 5 be completely escapable with a reasonable dead money total.

For each tier of yardage I’ll set a price based on past salaries. Normally I would go in year by year and use different values(contract structures are often a waterfall with the largest payments coming in year 1 and gradual reductions throughout), but for illustration I will just use one value per yardage category.

I will value a 1,600 yard season at $14 million, which is the top of the market even though that may not exist anymore. The 1,200 yard season I will factor in at $10.5 million a year, representing a raise from the current McCoy/Foster 3 year value levels of $10M to account for the increase in salary cap. A 1,000 yard season I’ll consider being worth $5 million, based on the Johnson and Jackson deals and between 800 and 999 yards being worth $3.5 million, which is around what teams will pay for the lower level talent. The next category has limited benefit so we will call that $1.5 million and for less than 400 yards I will only use $450,000, the average cost of a rookie the next three years.

If we multiply each percentage by the salary we get the following chart:

$14.5 million is what I would call my reasonable price to guarantee Murray based on my three year expectation level. I feel like I should be ok with that figure given the projected performance. That number alone is not going to get a contract done which is why I would only use it to set my guarantee. In general a full guarantee at the position should represent about 46% of the total contract value. So my offer to Murray is going to need to be somewhere in the vicinity of $31.5 million over 5 years.

If I factor in the 2018 and 2019 seasons I can bring my guarantee up to about $16.5 million. I would raise the amount guaranteed at that point to 48% and call it a $35 million contract. So I would be working between $31.5 and $35 million over 5 years. I would not go over that under any circumstance, and really anything above the $31 million I would probably walk away from. I’d likely consider 70% of the three year value to be guaranteed and I would raise that to 75% if I elected for the higher contract value, which is similar to what the Bears did with Forte a few years ago.

There are tons of cap possibilities with the contract depending on tolerance for cap hits in 2015 and 2016 versus the expected release date of 2017 and virtually guaranteed release date of 2018. Here would be a potential structure of the $31.5 million contract:

In this contract Murray receives a $5 million signing bonus, fully guaranteed 2015 salary and a partially guaranteed salary in 2016. In 2017 the cost to walk away is low enough that I can do that if necessary. My hope in the contract is that we can get two good seasons out of Murray. If I get one 1,200 yard season (preferably in 2015) and then a 1,000 yard year the following season I pretty much made my money back. I can then choose to chase a dream in 2017 or just release him.

The other course of action is to simply apply the franchise tag to Murray next year. The franchise tag will probably be in the ballpark of $10.5 million, which is similar to the cash value I had above in the first contract year. While that may be overpaying, I know that the best chance I have with him for another strong year is in 2015. He has a 40% chance of 1,200 or more yards and that is worth the salary if he gets there.

The important thing with the tag is I make no long term commitment to Murray if I use it. If he does great then I get value. If he flounders I can negotiate a deal on my terms or just let him walk. Because of the way the position breaks down, the team will almost always have leverage negotiating with a running back. The longer I push off that contract the better off I can be. I don’t think the tag is unreasonable in this case especially if his camp refuses to budge off a $9 million or so a year annual value, even if its unlikely to be found in free agency.

The Importance of the Contract

I find this contract to be a very important one to the future of the position. Most of the current contracts in that $7-9 million dollar range will be gone next year. It would not be shocking if the only player remaining in that tier is Jonathan Stewart of the Panthers who signed a ridiculous contract a few years back. If a 2,000 yard runner can’t break through and push past that figure it really means a very negative outlook on the position over the next 4 years. The running backs really need Murray to somehow break the bank on this contract even though there is no logical reason for the Cowboys or any other team to do that.

Most like the position needs younger entrants in the draft if it is to financially bounce back. They need the 21 year old underclassman to enter the draft, ala Clinton Portis a few years back, and reach that potential right out of the gates. At the most they would be 25 when getting a new contract and most likely just 24. Teams might give in more in those situations than they are now.

The only player on the horizon right now who could fit that bill is Le’Veon Bell of the Steelers. While he did not come out with the monster year he is on pace for close to 1,500 yards this season. He is just 22 years old. If the Steelers can keep him going and limit the amount they use LeGarrette Blount, Bell can be the guy after the 2015/16 season to try to re-ignite the position. But that will be infinitely harder if he is working off lower rather than higher numbers set by Murray.

Looking at Possible Contracts For the Raiders Jared Veldheer

Posted on December 4, 2013 by Jason Fitzgerald

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It was reported yesterday that the Raiders and LT Jared Veldheer are working on a contract extension, so I figured we could take a look at what contract possibilities there could be for him. Veldheer is a 26 year old former 3rd round draft choice playing the final year of his contract. He has been sidelined by injury for the first 11 games of the season but prior to that had started 44 games over his three year career and never been injured.

Pass Blocking

I like to break down pass blocking effectiveness using pressures and sacks allowed using a formula I developed where we consider a completed pass as a “success” and an incomplete as a “failure”. Every time a QB drops back to pass he is expected to complete about 63.7% of his dropbacks when he faces no pressure. If he Is pressured that number falls to 43.1%. So what I do with pass blockers is determine the percentage of plays where I can assign then to be the cause of “play failure”.

To illustrate this calculation I’ll use Joe Thomas of the Browns, who has been the best pass blocking tackle in the NFL for the last three years. Using statistics from Pro Football Focus we see that Thomas blocked on 574 plays. With no pressure 574 dropbacks should result in 208.3 failed pass attempts (574 * (1-63.7%)). That is our baseline number for the perfect player.

Thomas has allowed the QB to be pressured 27 times bringing his unpressured dropbacks down to 547, which equals 198.5 failures. Of the 27 pressures one is a sack which equals one failure. Of the 26 other pressures (hits and hurries) we can calculate that the play failed 14.8 times (26 * (1-43.1%)). Add those three numbers together and we calculate that Thomas’ plays resulted in 214.3 failures, so, in essence, his blocking is responsible for 6 non-completions, an increase of 2.88%.

Over the last three years the average left tackle who appeared in at least 50% of his teams passing snaps, allows an increase in failures of 5.01%. The best of the last three seasons was Thomas in 2012 with 2.05% and the worst was D’Anthony Batiste of the Cardinals in 2012 at 11.12%. For players who qualified for at least 2 of the last 3 seasons the average is 4.55%. Thomas again ranks highest at 2.43% for his three years of work while J’Marcus Webb is the worst at 6.66%. Obviously other factors play a role in the effectiveness of a players such as play calling, QB smarts (the Peyton Manning vs Tim Tebow disparity being the greatest), and play grading by PFF, but it’s at least a tool to put some perspective into the position.

Veldheer ranks in the top half of the position in both 2011 and 2012. In 2011 he scored a 4.36%, which ranked 11th for the position. In 2012 he was more effective with a grade of 3.71% which was good for 10th in the NFL. His two year average score of 4.04% ranks 9th among the 27 players who qualified for at least two seasons. That’s a better number than Ryan Clady (4.12%), Joe Staley (4.31%), Jordan Gross (4.84%), Jake Long (5.06%), D’Brickashaw Ferguson (5.1%), Jermon Bushrod (5.16%), and Will Beatty (5.99%).

Run Blocking

I don’t really think teams put significant weight into this aspect of the game when paying a Left Tackle. For one teams simply don’t run that often as the NFL has become a pure passing league. Secondly runs in the direction of the outside part of the line are only around 25% according to data maintained by Football Outsiders. So while the tackle plays a role in all running plays, overpaying for that aspect of the game is a bad business decision. You just want to make sure the player is not going to hurt you in that part of the game.

Veldheer would seem to be a capable player in the run game. in 2012 runs directed at the LT for the Raiders ranked 10th in the NFL. In 2011 they ranked 11th. This year they rank 10th as well without him. While the run personnel is better this season I don’t think anyone will be fooled into overpaying for “rub blocking” nor will they downgrade him for the same.

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Contract Points

I think one of the things that works against Veldheer is the fact that he is a 3rd round draft pick. While late draft picks can make up for their draft positioning, general honors and recognition come far easier for the top picks in a draft, until a player is established, which Veldheer is not having just two full seasons in the NFL. Veldheer also plays in relative obscurity in Oakland because they have been so bad for so many years.

With no Pro Bowls, All Pro seasons, or draft stature pushing a contract I felt that this was probably the best list of comparables I could come up with:

The gold standard here would be Brown, who was a much higher pick and an established four year starter but had yet to earn any Pro Bowl or All Pro nods when he signed his contract. Brown was also a superior player. His pass block numbers the past three years have averaged 3.02% and he was the 4^th rated LT in 2011, the year before he signed his mega extension.

Beatty is the name that should interest Veldheer the most. Beatty only started 31 games prior to signing his extension with the Giants this past offseason. New York fell into the one season wonder trap with him. In 2010 he graded at a below average 5.89% but when playing for a new contract saw the number fall down to a terrific 3.38%. The Giants bought in, as teams often do when they believe in a player, and this year he is up to an 8.7% number, second to last in the NFL.

Despite the fact that Veldheer has not played this year he is the player he should be looking to exceed in contract value. Beatty’s two year average of 4.63% leading into his new contract is inferior to Veldheer’s 4.04%. Neither is exactly established at the position. Neither was a high draft pick and neither really rewarded for his play leading into a deal.

Jermon Bushrod could be used to drop the price a bit. Bushrod had more experience and because he was a member of a high powered offense he also received recognition in the form of back to back Pro Bowls. His numbers were only impressive in 2011 (3.83%) and have fallen back to slightly below average after that. His guarantees and cash flows are nowhere near as impressive as Beattys.

The other interesting contract that I want to use to push the price is that of Sam Baker. Baker is another one of those players whose price was pushed by draft status. His 2012 contract year was nothing more than average (4.93% rating) and he was injured in 2011. While his $6.85 million average is not as impressive as the $7.2 million Bushrod received, the cash flows are tremendous. Provided the Falcons pick up a 2014 option his money is also well protected.

The following two tables present the cash flows and percent of five year payouts earned in each year

Potential Salaries

Outside of overpaying for Sebastian Janikowski, which I have to think was a directive that came from ownership, the Raiders front office has not really shown how they will be handling contract negotiations for top tier players. They did make Marcel Reece the highest paid Fullback in the NFL, but that is not a premier position either so I would throw that out. Veldheer is going to be their first high quality signing and may be a precedent point for the organization.

I would think a fair compromise is to match the annual value of the Bushrod contract, but make the cash flows match closer to that of the Baker contract. That would still put Veldheer under Beatty, which may not be fair but I think will be important to Oakland. While I don’t know what they will be planning I don’t sense that they want to be a pricing point for any position.

Due to uncertainty since he was out this year I would also imagine that the Raiders will include playtime bonuses that, in unearned, would bring his contract down to the Baker 5 year number of $6.9 million. If they want to bring him above Beatty than the bonuses I would have would bring him down to Bushrod’s APY. I would also like to get a deal done in the next few weeks if possible. Oakland currently has $2.75 million in cap space and can afford to use up $1.5 million of that on Bushrod this season to lower the dead money at the end of the contract.

The Raiders do have luxury of using more cap space next season than most other teams since they project to have around $70 million in cap space, but if using a somewhat traditional contract structure I’d consider something like this:

In this proposed structure Veldheer receives the first year fully guaranteed and will earn a vesting guarantee in 2015. If he is injured again in 2014 the Raider can move on with just $4.5 million in dead money. They could probably add another vesting guarantee in 2016 as well if they wanted. For cap purposes they could very easily swap the 2014 and 2015 salaries to frontload the contract a bit more. I think as long as 2016 is a reasonable number, since the hope would be that the team actually has players to pay at that point, they won’t be compromised when dealing with other players.

I’ll be interested to see where they go with Veldheer since he is not a marquee name but has played pretty well in his two full seasons. If they use the injury this year to their advantage that’s a great job by the Raiders because there is really no reason for him to not be somewhere in that $7 million to $7.5 million a year range based on how he has played. I’d imagine this will be finalized in the next two weeks.

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Status Update on the Eight Franchised Players

Posted on September 26, 2013September 26, 2013 by Ryan Feder

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It was a big week for a few players playing under the Franchise Tag this season and I figured it was a good time to just check-in and see they are doing so far this season.

The Good:

Michael Johnson – Defensive End – Cincinnati Bengals – Tag $11,175,000

The Cincinnati Bengals defense is playing excellent football and at the heart of that success is Michael Johnson. Johnson tied for 9^th in the league last year with 11.5 sacks and although he has only recorded 1.5 sacks this year, there may not be a defensive end playing better football in the league right now than Johnson. Johnson watched the Bengals pay out serious money in extensions to fellow defensive end Carlos Dunlap ($40 million) and All-Pro Defensive Tackle Geno Atkins ($55 million) this offseason and both haven’t played up to their billing through three games. The Bengals have plenty of cap space but also have to worry about the monster deal coming for All-Pro WR AJ Green and a new deal for Quarterback Andy Dalton (most likely). With so much money already tied up in the defensive line and only so many dollars to go around, they Bengals might not have a choice but to let Johnson walk, especially if he keeps this elite level of play up leading to his free agency.

Branden Albert – Left Tackle – Kansas City Chiefs – Tag $9,828,000

Branden Albert had a tumultuous offseason to say the least. It seems as if he was tagged for the sole purpose of being traded and was floated on the trade block leading up and through draft day while at the same time watching the Chiefs spend the 1^st overall pick on what is believed to be his replacement, offensive tackle Eric Fisher. Interestingly enough, Fisher is struggling mightily three games into his NFL career and Albert has protected new quarterback Alex Smith extremely well. Through three games, Albert has only allowed 4 quarterback hurries and 1 sack despite sustaining a shoulder injury in week 2, which led to his worst performance of the season in week 3. It will be interesting to see if Albert continues his solid play from the first two weeks or if the shoulder injury will hamper him. Either way, I believe this will be the last season for Albert in Kansas City.

Pat McAfee – Punter/Kickoff Specialist – Indianapolis Colts – Tag $2,977,000

There isn’t much to talk about here seeing as I seriously lack any experience evaluating Punter’s performance. But it is worth noting that McAfee has performed near the top third of the league in Punting according to Pro Football Focus, hasn’t showed up on the wrong end of any highlights and is healthy. As we will see later, half the battle in making the good section of this article is staying out of the news and actually being able to suit up on game day.

The “Bad”:

Randy Starks – Defensive Tackle – Miami Dolphins – Tag $8,450,000

Despite a scheme and position change, Randy Starks has continued to be an extremely productive defensive lineman for the Miami Dolphins since joining the team via free agency prior to the 2008 season. Starks thrived as one of the league’s best 3-4 defensive ends from 2008-2011 and now is getting the hang of playing defensive tackle in Kevin Coyle’s 4-3 defense. Unfortunately, there have been some negative reports floating around about Starks during the offseason and now during the season. One of which was a report that Starks believes the Dolphins punished him for missing offseason voluntary workouts and stripped him of his starting role while he was lobbying for a long-term deal. While defensive tackles Paul Soliai and Jared Odrick are listed as starters ahead of Starks, the snap counts were all relatively similar prior to Soliai’s week 2 knee injury. Starks regained his starting role, at least temporarily, after Soliai went down with a knee injury although he didn’t play particularly well in the Dolphins’ win against Atlanta. To further complicate issues, Starks was caught on camera flipping the bird on the sidelines during the Dolphins’ week 1 victory against Cleveland. Reports were the gesture was directed at the coaching staff but Starks claims it was him just joking on the sidelines with his teammates. Who knows what the truth is, but Jeff Ireland and Joe Philbin have been quick to rid themselves of players that cause distractions and the soon to be 30 year-old Starks in the headlines surely isn’t helping his cause to secure a long-term deal with the Dolphins this offseason.

Jairus Byrd – Free Safety – Buffalo Bills – Tag $6,916,000

Muddled in an ugly contract dispute, Jairus Byrd’s 2013 season hasn’t started smoothly to say the least. As one of the leagues’ top safeties he was hoping to cash in big during the offseason but never could get close enough with the Bills to hammer out a deal. Unhappy with his current situation, Byrd didn’t sign his franchise tender until August 20^th and reportedly was asking to be traded. To make matters worse, Byrd reported to the team complaining of sore feet, which was determined to be plantar fasciitis. I can tell you first hand that dealing with plantar fasciitis is extremely painful and frustrating. Citing his foot pain, Byrd has yet to suit up for the Bills this year despite the rest of their secondary also being decimated by injuries. Cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore, Ron Brooks, and Leodis McKelvin are dealing with an assortment of injuries of their own. What complicates Byrd’s injury and contract situation further is the discovery that he played through the injury last season. Whether it’s fair or not, it looks as if Byrd was willing to play through the pain last year in search of a big payday and now doesn’t see it as worthwhile to risk playing through it this year. You would have to figure we are going to see Byrd suit up for the Bills soon, but it may very well be the last season he plays for Buffalo unless of course the Bills decide to tag him again, since it would only cost around $8.3 million, and this whole drama plays out again next year.

The Ugly:

Henry Melton – Defensive Tackle – Chicago Bears – Tag $8,450,000

After back-to-back stellar years at the Defensive Tackle position Henry Melton’s shaky 2013 start went from bad to flat out devastating. As we mentioned in previous articles, the Chicago Bears have a number of key players in contract years and franchised Henry Melton was one of them. With the Bears thriving under new head coach Marc Trestman, it’s looking increasingly likely that a higher number of the players would be retained. Unfortunately for Melton, he is going to be a perfect case study of why players value long-term contract security so much and fight so hard to avoid the franchise tag. Melton suffered a torn ACL vs the Steelers this Sunday and not only is he going to miss the rest of the season, his value in free agency this upcoming offseason just took a crippling blow. While it seems to be the trend that players can recover from ACL injuries faster and more efficiently than ever, Melton may have to take a shorter “prove it” deal instead of a more substantial free agency haul that he was looking forward to.

Anthony Spencer – Defensive End – Dallas Cowboys – Tag $10,627,200

In 2012, Spencer and the Cowboys were unable to reach a long-term deal and he ended up playing through the season on the $8,856,000 franchise tag. Not only did he avoid serious injury, Spencer probably played the best football of his career. With Monte Kiffin bringing in his Tampa 2 4-3 defense, Spencer was asked to switch from 3-4 Outside Linebacker to 4-3 Defensive End and the position change ending up being one of the contentious points that prevented the Cowboys and Spencer from seeing eye to eye on his value and reaching a long-term deal yet again this year. The Cowboys and Spencer both seemed content to play the year out on the franchise tag again, but as mentioned above with Henry Melton, it comes with serious risk. Spencer had offseason surgery on his left knee and after missing week 1 was able to play against Kansas City in week 2. It’s unclear what happened during the game, but after missing week 3, news broke that Spencer would have micro-fracture surgery on his left knee and will miss the rest of the season. Spencer is now in the same bucket as Melton and will have to prove to teams he is past his injury if he hopes to cash in next offseason in free agency.

Ryan Clady – Left Tackle – Denver Broncos – Tag $9,828,000****

Of the eight players who were franchise tagged this offseason, Ryan Clady was the sole player who reached a long-term extension with their team. Trusted with protecting the blind-side of early-season MVP Peyton Manning, the Broncos agreed to a 5-year $52.5 million extension. Clady becomes another example of why players fight so hard to avoid the franchise tag and hold out of team activities while they pursue long-term security from the teams. Just two games into his new mega-deal, Clady’s foot suffered a season-ending Lisfranc sprain in a seemingly docile collision. Of the three players now on season-ending IR, Clady is the only one with any multi-year security and doesn’t have to worry about proving his worth and health next offseason in search of a new deal.

Examining the Potential Landing Spots for Josh Freeman

Posted on September 26, 2013September 26, 2013 by Jason Fitzgerald

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With Josh Freeman’s benching official we now turn some attention to possible landing spots for the QB. Right off the bat I do feel that the Buccaneers really mishandled the situation. If they were this down on Freeman to bench him this quickly they should have explored the trade market months ago when he still had value. Giving up on him kills his trade value to the point where you are now just hoping to dump a player that was drafted in the first round in 2009.

I do think a possible scenario could be one in which the Bucs sit and wait until the trade deadline hoping that a starter gets injured and makes picking up Freeman a necessity. That would be the maximized return in terms of trade value. But this is not going to be Carson Palmer to the Raiders. Palmer had retired from football and not had an opportunity to QB a team expected to do well and then been the primary person blamed for failure. They will give up something, but it’s going to be more like a 5th or 6th round pick, not a 2nd rounder.

From a draft pick for player trade perspective I think all sides will look at the possibility of compensatory draft picks. Right now Freeman is damaged goods but players like Vince Young and Jason Campbell were able to fetch close to $4 million a year while Kyle Boller even made $1.5 million, so it’s possible that compensatory picks could be awarded if he hits free agency. If the Buccaneers think they will receive a compensatory 5th in the 2015 draft they should be willing to take a 5th in 2014 for him. A 6th could even get it done. Those same teams might look at this as a one season delay on the draft pick since they would then hold Freeman’s free agent rights and receive that compensatory pick in the 2015 draft.

Thus far I don’t think there are any rumors of serious interest anywhere, but why not look ahead anyway and focus on the five teamsthat most fans are talking about.

Minnesota Vikings

I don’t really see this as being an ideal trade partner. While Christian Ponder is not lighting the world on fire in Minnesota he is not the biggest issue on a team that gives up 30 points to the Browns and cant place a body on a receiver on a fake FG attempt. The Vikings are 0-3 and what reason would there be to believe that Freeman, who flopped on a playoff potential team, would come in here and rescue the season?

The other issue here is the cap space issue. Josh Freeman will cost $6.94 million in cap space to a team that acquires him. The Vikings have just $2.3 million. I would imagine if you are trading for Freeman the need for either Matt Cassel or Christian Ponder disappears. The Vikings could include Cassel in a trade and cut about $1.4 million from the payroll, but that still would not be enough to make the trade happen. Ponder would free even less room but the Vikings would also pass along $1.7 million in fully guaranteed 2014 salary to the Bucs, making him perhaps a more reasonable candidate.

I would think to make it work they would move Ponder for Freeman and have to make the salaries match. Trading Ponder transfers $2,829,645 in guaranteed salary to the Buccaneers. In turn the Buccaneers would need to pay $4,112,708 of Freeman’s salary before executing a trade. That would bring the cash and cap commitment for the Vikings to $2.829 million, giving them just enough room to execute a Ponder for Freeman trade. I actually think the Vikings would want something beyond Freeman to do that trade, but Ponder has also become a scapegoat so maybe not.

The Vikings do have a number of high cost players who could also have their contracts reworked to open up the cap space necessary to make the trade if they did not want to part with any players on the team. The Vikings have a low payroll in 2014 so franchising Freeman is a realistic option.

Oakland Raiders

If this was April I think the Raiders would have been interested. Greg Olson, the Raiders Offensive Coordinator, has a relationship with Freeman when the two were together in Tampa and he got the best out of Freeman. But Oakland already whiffed once in the trade market and now have seen Terrelle Pryor at least be capable enough to warrant more opportunity. Pryor did suffer a concussion this past Monday and those injuries can be very tricky. If the Raiders think it could be a long term setback for Pryor this could be a reasonable option.

Like with the Vikings, the trade is complicated because of salary cap constraints as the Raiders only have $3.1 million in room. It is probably further complicated because the Raiders are not going to spend more draft picks on the position as they have wasted picks in trades for Palmer and Flynn in recent years. I would think this would need to be a pure player for player trade with Flynn going to Tampa and Freeman to Oakland. Flynn only makes $1.25 million so again we have a scenario where the Buccaneers are going to need to eat significant salary, somewhere between $2.8 and $3.8 million to make the numbers work.

Oakland does not have the financial flexibility to rework contracts to make the deal work without Tampa kicking in significant money. I guess an outside the box thought would be trading Darren McFadden and his salary to the Buccaneers, but that seems counterproductive for both sides. If Tampa does not foot the bill Oakland would, most likely, have to sign Freeman to an extension. Since Freeman’s value right now is so low Oakland could be willing to do that if Freeman was willing to sign off on it. Oakland’s payroll is next to nothing in 2014 so adding money to that year, even via a void provision, would not impact them one bit.

Jacksonville Jaguars

In my mind this makes sense simply because the Jaguars are so bad and have the worst QB situation in the NFL. But the Jaguars have not really made any changes to their team and seem to be simply playing for the draft at this point, making this a move they will not want to make. Unlike the first two teams Freeman would be a clear upgrade to both Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne, but that could potentially compromise their ability to cruise to the first pick in the draft. There is no reason for the Jaguars to think that Freeman is a franchise QB and they are simply treading water until they get the opportunities to build the team in a manner they feel champions are built.

The Jaguars have more than enough cap room to take Freeman on but unless they just want to throw a bone to their fanbase there is no reason for them to make this trade. It would be a surprise if they made this move.

Cleveland Browns

Cleveland already moved on from Brandon Weeden in favor of Brian Hoyer, so I guess the question here is how high are the Browns on Hoyer, who played well last Sunday, and how low are they on Weeden. The Browns owe Weeden $2.44 million in fully guaranteed salary in 2014 and 2015 and a trade involving Weeden lets them pass those obligations on to another team, which is what they did with Trent Richardson. Would they consider that a fair swap? I’m not sure as they may prefer getting a late draft pick for Weeden than a player like Freeman. The Browns have plenty of cap space this year and next so applying the tag or extending Freeman would work without problem.

I would keep an eye on the Browns closer to the trade deadline if Freeman is still riding the bench in Tampa Bay. The Browns division does not look to be strong this year and the Browns do have a solid defense that will keep them in games. If Hoyer proves to be a one game wonder but the Browns tread water and sit at 3-4 with a solid defense Freeman could be worth a gamble. At the worst it is throwing away a player you have already given up on for someone who could be more than just a stopgap for the season.

Tennessee Titans

I have seen the Titans name mentioned before, and they have just enough cap room to pull this trade off, but I’m not really sure there is a fit. I feel as if the Titans would like to continue to give Jake Locker a look and if he was to fail would be prepared to turn the reigns over to Ryan Fitzpatrick in hopes of being able to make the playoffs. Going forward the Titans have enough salary cap commitments to where having cap rollover dollars are more important than bringing Freeman onto the roster. Those same cap commitments likely eliminate the Franchise tag and any extensions before free agency. I only see this as a destination if both Locker and Fitzpatrick were to get injured.

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A Look at Pricing Points for Richard Sherman and the Seahawks

Posted on September 18, 2013 by Jason Fitzgerald

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I had a few comments today about CB Richard Sherman of the Seattle Seahawks and what he could be worth in the future to Seattle, so I thought why not take a look at Sherman and his potential value. Sherman is currently in the 3rd year of a rookie contract signed in 2011 and can be extended following the season, so this is clearly a big year for him.

The Performance

I think most people universally recognized Sherman as the best cornerback in the NFL last season. I maintain a few different evaluation criteria by which I look at cornerbacks, usually using the raw data from Pro Football Focus. One such evaluation matrix looks at corners in four categories: percent passes caught, QBR against, percent active breakups ((PD + Int)/Tgt), and YAC.

Last season, which was Sherman’s breakout year, he ranked 5th, 2nd, 1st, and 17th among corners with at least 50% playtime. The only other players with three top 10 rankings in the categories were Casey Heyward of the Green Bay Packers, who ranked 2nd, 1st, 2nd, and 62nd, and Antonio Cromartie of the Jets who ranked 3rd, 12th, 7th, and 8th. Here are how the three stack up compared to last years’ league average.

Comparing Sherman and Heyward is a bit difficult (besides defensive scheme differences) because they cover different types of receivers. Heyward plays primarily in the slot, which is a reason why his YAC is so poor. Often when you trail a guy in the slot the player is going to catch the ball running and keep going. Likewise that also can improve the QBR since the formula takes into account things like TD’s which more often than not hit outside targets.

In terms of veteran talent really nobody came close. Players like Champ Bailey and Brandon Flowers were nowhere near these levels and Cortland Finnegan was awful. Of course Darrelle Revis was injured. So in terms of outside play Sherman was the clear cut number 1 corner.

Now Revis’ 2009 season is considered the gold standard of cornerbacks while his work in 2010 and 2011 continued to be excellent once fully recovered from injury. Using Revis’ numbers from 2009 through 2011 we come up with some interesting takeaways comparing the two players.

With the exception of reception rates, Sherman’s 2012 season compares favorably with Revis over the 3 year prime period he had with the Jets. While none of this means Sherman is a better player I think it at least brings up the thought that it is worth looking deeper into the stats to see how they compare.

Another set of stats that I keep are stats that deal with expected versus actual performance. These numbers are based on expected WR performance, which is to be targeted 20.2% of the time on a pass play with an outside catch rater of 58.6% for 14.2 YPC. I also factor in slot play which is 64.9% for 12.6 YPC. Using these numbers I calculate what is called the “Shutdown Stats” which identify how many receptions and yards a player prevents his target from getting in a game.

A second category Team Category which was I considered when Nnamdi Asomugha was playing dreadful in Philadelphia in 2011 when thrown on but he was still rarely being thrown at. This assumes that the corner plays across from an average player and that “shutting down” his opponent doesn’t necessarily lead to an incompletion, just a throw to a different target. This should be a consideration if paying one corner means bringing in below average talent at the other corner spots. Few teams are so dominant with one main WR that it can eliminate the effectiveness of the highly paid cornerback.

Under this set of criteria Sherman falls short of Revis at his peak, though these are still exceptional numbers. The reason for the disparity between Sherman and Revis in the team categories has to do more with the notion of what is typically called a shutdown corner.

Revis is extremely unique in that despite his reputation he got thrown on often, particularly in the 2009 season. In 2009 Revis was targeted nearly 20% of the time he was in coverage. In contrast Asomugha, who was always considered a “shutdown” player, was targeted less than 7% of the time in Oakland. Revis’ numbers were more in line with Sherman’s over the next two seasons. Sherman was targeted 14.6% of the time last season.

So even though he does not match with Revis in this criteria these are still excellent numbers and he has done it for two years in a row. The team yard discrepancy is just a byproduct of being targeted less than Revis and considering the system in Seattle is excellent the numbers are skewed because the secondary targets are all well covered, not all that different from the Revis/Cromartie tandem in NY.

Recent veteran players that have put up numbers like Sherman’s were those who earned big money contracts or were named Franchise Players.

The Marketplace

There may be no more difficult market to balance right now than the cornerback market. To say it crashed would be the understatement of the year. Players that many thought could be potentially franchised were signing $4 and $5 million dollar per year contracts. It stands to be seen whether or not this was people like myself simply overvaluing a group of players or if the new spread offenses are convincing teams that overspending on one player is not as important as balance in the secondary. Sherman’s new contract will likely put that in perspective.

At the top of the market is Revis at $16 million a season. Not only is Revis’ contract an outlier but for Revis to get that money, which he was desperate to get as it was extremely important to he and his agents to be the highest paid defensive player, he gave up all guaranteed money. Considering he is coming off an ACL injury that is a very risky move for a player.

If the high end market still exists Sherman will probably work from the contracts given to Brandon Carr, Brandon Flowers and Cortland Finnegan who would be the young player comparables. Also in that upper echelon pay group is Champ Bailey who is significantly older and has more of his money tied in incentives, but because of age I don’t consider Bailey to be a consideration.

In addition I think an important contract to look at is the contract Revis had leading into 2013 with the New York Jets. That contract was specifically designed to be a somewhat “fair market” value contract when an outlier existed. In that case it was Asomugha earning over $16 million a year from the Raiders.

The Price

I think the fact that Sherman is on the Seahawks will work to his advantage in setting a price for a few reasons. One is that he is incredibly important to their defense and at its core the Seahawks are a defensive team. He will turn 26 in 2014 and will be entering the prime of career so there should be less concern than there would be with an older player.

But most important is that Sherman has a specific player to point to within the organization as a reason for holding the Seahawks feet to the fire. That player is WR Percy Harvin. With one season left on his contract the Seahawks turned around and gave Harvin, nowhere as accomplished of a player as Sherman, a stunning contract worth nearly $13 million a year. In the past Seattle has also overextended a bit for TE Zach Miller, WR Sidney Rice, and RB Marshawn Lynch.

In general I would say that they are a team that clearly pays for what they believe is future performance rather than relying on past performance as an indicator of worth. So the data points are specifically there with this team to receive a top of the market contract.

Though Sherman is not Revis I think that he should make a strong push for a 3 year payout similar to what Revis received from the Jets. That would shatter the $33 million threshold for the other players. Because Sherman will have one low cost year remaining on his contract, meaning his three year payout can be spread among 4 years, the Seahawks can likely get the cap dollars to work out in his contract moreso than if they wait until after the 2014 season. I don’t know if he can reach the annual value of Revis’ old contract given the market conditions but $11 million a year I think would actually be acceptable to both sides.

Remember that both sides should have a reason to get a deal done this offseason. In the case of the Seahawks a $55 million dollar extension signed next year will really be a 6 year $56.4 million dollar deal for cap purposes, a bargain compared to the contracts that were earned in free agency. It’s the lone justification they had for Harvin’s contract. From Sherman’s perspective not only does he get money up front but he eliminates the Franchise tag from play, which impacts his ability to earn a third contract in his early 30s, and the uncertainty of free agency. Though teams will surely bid high for Sherman will they overbid or will they consider decent players earning $4 or $5 million as a baseline to work from?

The Changing Dynamic of the Seahawks

Seattle, which finally found success in 2012 after years of rebuilding, is now entering a phase where philosophically they may need to make some changes for salary cap purposes. Seattle has been able to be active in free agency and trade market because of having so many quality players on relatively low cost rookie contracts.

The process has already started with extensions given to DE Red Bryant and C Max Unger in 2012 and S Kam Chancellor in 2013. Those were players on 4th, 2nd, and 5th round contracts that are now either top 10 or close to it contracts. Sherman has been paid as a 5th rounder and will now be paid as one of the top players at the position. Also up soon for contracts are S Earl Thomas (FA in 2015), who is going to want more than Chancellor, T Russell Okung (FA in 2016), CB Brandon Browner (FA in 2014), and of course QB Russell Wilson (extension can occur in 2015).

Seattle already has a high payroll in 2014 which will likely be quickly solved by the releases of some combination of veterans such as Rice, Miller, Cliff Avril, and Chris Clemons, whose salary cap numbers will be replaced by the extended players. But once those salaries are replaced by younger home grown Seahawks the ability to jump into free agency and trades may be severely compromised.

As a fan of the Jets I have very closely watched a similar situation play out in New York. It was not long ago that the Jets went to back to back AFC Championship games with a roster that was built through a combination of quality relatively low cost draft picks, trading for rookie contract players and overextending somewhat in free agency. Eventually those low cost players- Revis, Nick Mangold, D’Brickashaw Ferguson, David Harris, Antonio Cromartie, and Santonio Holmes- all became high priced veterans over the course of two offseasons and the whole dynamic changed.

Now the Jets have had other problems beyond those signings, but once you move into major extensions for young talent it leaves you no margin for error. They were unable to bring in other pieces due to long term cap considerations and had no choice but to draft well to replenish the roster with low cost studs. Unfortunately for the Jets their drafts from 2008 thru 2010 proved to be complete disasters. Of 13 players drafted only 1 is currently starting for the Jets (G Vlad Ducasse) and only 3 are on the Jets (Ducasse, CB Kyle Wilson, and QB Mark Sanchez). With the salary cap the way it is it is almost impossible to have success when you have no low cost contributors on the team. It only took two seasons for the Jets to go from Super Bowl contenders to being considered one of the worst teams in the NFL and in part it’s because the team could not fall back on what got them to the dance in terms of trades and free agency because the cap no longer allowed it. At best they could hit the bargain bin for 1 year contracts for “prove it” players like S Laron Landry.

With that in mind the 2012 to 2014 draft classes will be of the utmost importance to the Seahawks. Wilson will be extended early, but almost everyone else could be in a position where they have to play their deals out. You need a high hit rate to make up for all these new contracts that will be hitting the books next season. Turning to free agency for anything more than a stopgap will be difficult. Trading away draft picks will be very difficult. It’s a good situation to have but it’s one that teams have to begin preparing for long before the new deals actually hit the books for the team.

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Andre Brown #35 RB, New York Giants

Posted on August 2, 2013August 3, 2013 by Paul Carrozzo

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Andre Brown #35 RB, New York Giants

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And here we go. David Wilson is an explosive back with the upside of a high end RB1 in the NFL. Although Tom Coughlin could give any General a run for their money on the topic of discipline, Wilson’s ability alone made his absence in the backfield a mystery. Everyone (and I mean everyone) claim it is a product of his early fumble and subsequent drop of a Manning pass. The drop I can understand, but I find it hard to believe that the coaching staff thinks that Wilson is a fumbler. Guys with fumblitis do not get granted Kick Returner status.

The reason that Wilson will not get the time on the field that his ability dictates, is because he is terrible in Pass Pro. Pass Pro are the schemes that offenses use to protect the QB on pass plays. Along with scheme, a player must have the ability to block the defender that he is assigned. Take it from a former RB, the great college and NFL backs make this look astoundingly easier than it is on the field. First a read must be made at the line by eight different guys. These reads are then communicated among the offensive personnel (ever play telephone as a kid?) including the RB who is usually 7-8 yards deep in the formation. Imagine being that far away and trying to keep up with the communication, all along not tipping any information to the defense. Granted on obvious passing downs this isn’t an issue, but watch how many times there is a missed assignment on non-obvious passing downs. We have heard all spring into the summer how the Giants feel that Wilson has improved on his Pass Pro. Considering yesterday’s report, I find it hard to believe that the Giants truly feel this way.

This brings us to Andre Brown, a man who has bounced around a bit since being drafted in the 4th round of the 2010 NFL Draft. He signed his 1 year, $2 million tender in March which makes him an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. He is a devastating runner. One that can wear down a defense when given a healthy dose of him. He makes you think of a UPS truck when he is running which is why the slogan “What can Brown do for you?” follows him. It will be extremely interesting to see him when he is called upon in this hot hand setup. Brown is the orphan, while Wilson is the crowned prince. Disney usually makes Brown the victor in these battles. I believe this real life battle will go the same.

Estimated New Contract: New York Giants 2 years, $6 million

Contract Year Series, Jared Allen

Posted on July 31, 2013August 1, 2013 by Paul Carrozzo

Jared Allen #69 DE, Minnesota Vikings

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Johnny Manziel should take some pointers about alcohol consumption from Jared Allen. Allen’s two DUIs in 2007 nearly derailed his eventual Hall of Fame career. Although the Kansas City Chiefs truly wanted to offer a contract extension commensurate with his talent, the team had to take into account that off the field, Allen was spiraling out of control. The Chiefs eventually used the highest RFA tender to retain him for the 2007 season.

After serving a league mandated two game suspension-reduced from four- Allen went on an absolute tear, recording 15.5 sacks in only 14 games. Chiefs GM at the time was Carl Peterson who vowed “We will not lose Jared Allen”. Instead of offering a long term contract to their reformed superstar, the Chiefs decided to play hardball and slapped the Franchise Tag on him. Obviously Allen did not take kindly to this and demanded a trade out of Kansas City which was granted. On April 23, 2008 Allen was traded to the Minnesota Vikings and received a then record-breaking (for a defensive player) 6 year, $73.5 million contract.

This bring us to today. Allen has honored not only his contract but also staying away from drinking. Over the past six years he has built upon his Hall of Fame resume. At 31 years old, my assumption is he will be awarded an extension by the Vikings commensurate to the one Cameron Wake signed lasted year.

Estimated New Contract: Minnesota Vikings extention 5 years, $38 million