Thoughts on Eric Fisher’s New Contract

With a flurry of new contracts coming in I wanted to give some quick breakdowns and thoughts on the contracts. Party I wanted to do this because Ive been getting some questions on the deals but also because I think in general we are going way overboard on the guaranteed portions of the contract which sometimes mean something different. I’ll start with Eric Fisher of the Chiefs whose contract was first broken down today by Terez Paylor of the Kansas City Star. Continue reading Thoughts on Eric Fisher’s New Contract »

Years vs Money: A Closer Look at Wilson and Luck

Who has the better contract,  Russell Wilson or Andrew Luck?  The answer itself seems pretty simple. One player set the record for the largest contract in the history of the NFL and the other failed to become the highest paid player even for a short period of time. Luck received $87 million in total guarantees and Wilson barely cracked $60 million. But often in the world of contracts we, too often, get caught up in the big numbers and don’t put them in context.  I wanted to look a little closer at the two contracts and examine some of the tradeoffs that a player might be accepting to get the universally praised contract. Continue reading Years vs Money: A Closer Look at Wilson and Luck »

Thoughts on Glenn and Armstead Big Money Contracts

We are in extension season right now as teams try to hammer out new contracts before heading on vacation before training camp and we had two monster ones this week with Terron Armstead and Cordy Glenn signing for $13 and $12 million a year respectively. While both players are entrenched starters neither has made a Pro Bowl and I’m not sure if opinion around the NFL placed them at the top of the position (PFF does with Armstead who ranked 3rd last year while Glenn was 10th) yet their salaries reflect that. It was a bit surprising since similar talent players in Russell Okung and Kelvin Beachum were not able to reach the same plateaus as free agents even in their option pickups. So let’s see how these deals stack up with the rest of the market. Continue reading Thoughts on Glenn and Armstead Big Money Contracts »

2016 Cap Analytics: Denver Broncos

Expected Contract OutcomesExpected Contract Value 2.0 utilizes an algorithm based on a player’s contract characteristics, age, position and 2015 performance to forecast probabilities as to the outcomes of contract termination decisions.   The lower the Expected Outcome, the more likely the player’s contract will be terminated in 2016.  A pay cut is treated as a termination.  We have applied ECV 2.0 to all contracts scheduled to count $2 million or more against the 2016 salary cap with the exception of exercised 5th year rookie options.  Expected Savings is the calculated by multiplying the probability a player will be released by the cap savings realized by the team upon such release.

Continue reading 2016 Cap Analytics: Denver Broncos »

2016 Cap Analytics: Carolina Panthers

Expected Contract OutcomesExpected Contract Value 2.0 utilizes an algorithm based on a player’s contract characteristics, age, position and 2015 performance to forecast probabilities as to the outcomes of contract termination decisions.   The lower the Expected Outcome, the more likely the player’s contract will be terminated in 2016.  A pay cut is treated as a termination.  We have applied ECV 2.0 to all contracts scheduled to count $2 million or more against the 2016 salary cap with the exception of exercised 5th year rookie options.  Expected Savings is the calculated by multiplying the probability a player will be released by the cap savings realized by the team upon such release.

Continue reading 2016 Cap Analytics: Carolina Panthers »

2016 Cap Analytics: Arizona Cardinals

Expected Contract OutcomesExpected Contract Value 2.0 utilizes an algorithm based on a player’s contract characteristics, age, position and 2015 performance to forecast probabilities as to the outcomes of contract termination decisions.   The lower the Expected Outcome, the more likely the player’s contract will be terminated in 2016.  A pay cut is treated as a termination.  We have applied ECV 2.0 to all contracts scheduled to count $2 million or more against the 2016 salary cap with the exception of exercised 5th year rookie options.  Expected Savings is the calculated by multiplying the probability a player will be released by the cap savings realized by the team upon such release.

Continue reading 2016 Cap Analytics: Arizona Cardinals »