Now that we have details for most of the contracts signed in free agency I wanted to look at any trends that are happening within the free agency time periods. What I did was look at the last five years of data and looked at all players considered UFAs’, Franchise, or Transition players who signed contracts worth at least $2 million a season in February or March of each year and compared some of the big picture numbers over that period of time.
| Year | Players | Avg. Years | Avg Per Year | Avg. Per Game | Avg. Inj. Guarantee | Avg. Full Guarantee |
| 2021 | 172 | 2.08 | $6,273,725 | $626,657 | $9,226,166 | $8,369,335 |
| 2022 | 200 | 2.11 | $6,153,085 | $667,973 | $9,129,220 | $8,091,995 |
| 2023 | 202 | 2.06 | $5,707,487 | $516,762 | $8,547,238 | $7,652,931 |
| 2024 | 222 | 1.96 | $6,832,087 | $666,293 | $10,595,185 | $9,246,366 |
| 2025 | 223 | 1.91 | $6,913,178 | $786,614 | $9,855,848 | $9,239,973 |
Contract length continues to decline falling from an average of 2.08 years per player in 2021 to 1.91 years per player in 2025. This trend has been consistent with NFL teams and agents focusing on contract negotiations that deal more with what the league views as realistic timeframes for a player to continue to play well rather than increasing the size of contracts. Over the same time the average injury guarantee has risen as has the full guarantees though they peaked in 2024 with what was considered a stronger free agent class.
The average per game bonus is an alarming trend for players. The average per game bonus is now $787K per player. That is up 25% since 2021 and 18% since last season. Contract values have not risen at those same levels nor have the guaranteed salaries. The overall numbers are up as well with about 70% of the players having at least some money tied to per game participation. That was 52% in 2021.
Basically teams are shifting far more risk to the player side than before. It is important to note that many of these per game bonuses are “guaranteed” which means protected if cut but does not mean protected if inactive.
Here is a breakdown of the percentage of overall salary that has been guaranteed and how much is tied to per game money
| Year | % Per Game | % Inj. Guar. | % Full Guar. |
| 2021 | 3.98% | 58.5% | 53.1% |
| 2022 | 4.10% | 56.0% | 49.6% |
| 2023 | 3.54% | 58.5% | 52.4% |
| 2024 | 3.80% | 60.4% | 52.7% |
| 2025 | 4.78% | 59.8% | 56.1% |
We have risen from about 4% in 2021 to 4.8% of the total contract value coming in the form of per game bonuses. Teams really have not budged on what they are guaranteeing overall but have been a bit more willing to throw some additional fully guaranteed money at signing. My guess would be much of that is coming in the form of fully guaranteed workouts and per game bonuses.
Let’s break things down by the contract APY, starting with players earning at least $20 million a year.
$20M Per Year UFA Market
| Year | Players | Avg. Years | Avg Per Year | Avg. Per Game | Avg. Inj. Guarantee | Avg. Full Guarantee |
| 2021 | 3 | 4.3 | $28,003,333 | $1,500,000 | $72,033,333 | $60,016,667 |
| 2022 | 4 | 4.3 | $22,000,000 | $637,500 | $49,286,250 | $36,937,500 |
| 2023 | 6 | 3.7 | $25,458,333 | $1,520,000 | $56,295,000 | $44,676,667 |
| 2024 | 12 | 3.7 | $26,926,389 | $601,833 | $64,716,667 | $50,594,167 |
| 2025 | 9 | 3.1 | $23,794,667 | $2,337,778 | $44,700,222 | $37,934,667 |
Without a doubt the NFL is more willing than ever to sign a player to a $20M a year contract during free agency. There were just 13 players signed from 2021 to 2023 and in the last two years it has been 21. While guaranteed salary has dropped some of that is a reflection of sample sizes and type of players available. The numbers for this year for instance are similar to those in 2022 and as you will see the percentages are very constant when size of contract is taken into account.
The per game trends are pretty significant. The average per game bonus this year was nearly $2.4 million. It had never been above $1.5 million prior to 2025. 55% of the players had a per game bonus. Here are the percentages based on total contract size.
| Year | % Per Game | % Inj. Guar. | % Full Guar. |
| 2021 | 1.25% | 59.9% | 49.9% |
| 2022 | 0.67% | 51.9% | 38.9% |
| 2023 | 1.62% | 60.1% | 47.7% |
| 2024 | 0.60% | 64.5% | 50.4% |
| 2025 | 3.14% | 60.0% | 50.9% |
We are now up to over 3% of total contract value tied up in per game bonuses while injury and full guarantees as a percentage of the total contract values has not really moved for this group of players.
$15-$20M Per Year UFA Market
| Year | Players | Avg. Years | Avg Per Year | Avg. Per Game | Avg. Inj. Guarantee | Avg. Full Guarantee |
| 2021 | 11 | 3.3 | $16,431,727 | $181,818 | $29,253,545 | $26,421,727 |
| 2022 | 10 | 3.8 | $16,235,000 | $1,599,400 | $35,912,000 | $32,462,000 |
| 2023 | 6 | 3.8 | $16,659,111 | $1,008,667 | $38,683,333 | $33,233,333 |
| 2024 | 8 | 3.3 | $17,347,917 | $1,070,000 | $34,625,000 | $30,475,000 |
| 2025 | 21 | 3.1 | $16,821,937 | $1,449,286 | $30,975,000 | $30,004,286 |
2025 was a banner year for increasing the number of players earning at least $15 million a year with 21 signings in 2025 compared to just 24 in the three years prior. Again we have seen the total years nosedive while those per gamers, which were non existent 5 years ago continue to explode. 72% of players received a per game bonus. This has been steadily rising as it was just around 50% back in 2021. Here are the percentages based on total contract value.
| Year | % Per Game | % Inj. Guar. | % Full Guar. |
| 2021 | 0.3% | 55.1% | 49.7% |
| 2022 | 2.6% | 58.0% | 52.4% |
| 2023 | 1.6% | 60.3% | 51.8% |
| 2024 | 1.9% | 60.7% | 53.5% |
| 2025 | 2.8% | 59.3% | 57.4% |
This is the highest percentage of the last five years for per game bonuses though 2022 was also a pretty big year. Again we are seeing jumps in how much is fully guaranteed at signing, but injury protection is pretty flat for the last four years.
$10-$15M Per Year UFA Market
| Year | Players | Avg. Years | Avg Per Year | Avg. Per Game | Avg. Inj. Guarantee | Avg. Full Guarantee |
| 2021 | 22 | 2.6 | $11,671,167 | $1,307,955 | $20,540,864 | $18,409,046 |
| 2022 | 24 | 3.0 | $11,668,278 | $1,106,042 | $20,987,688 | $17,245,604 |
| 2023 | 14 | 3.0 | $11,583,881 | $645,357 | $19,760,071 | $18,670,786 |
| 2024 | 28 | 2.6 | $11,445,417 | $1,366,964 | $17,833,214 | $16,266,429 |
| 2025 | 24 | 2.4 | $11,328,056 | $1,358,333 | $16,674,583 | $16,007,917 |
The size of this market remains pretty steady and it seems that slowly this will be a market for many two year contracts in the future. The average per game has been steady here though the guarantee trends are showing a dip. The 66% of players receiving a per game bonus is in line with the historical numbers.
| Year | % Per Game | % Inj. Guar. | % Full Guar. |
| 2021 | 4.2% | 65.2% | 58.4% |
| 2022 | 3.1% | 58.5% | 48.1% |
| 2023 | 1.9% | 57.4% | 54.3% |
| 2024 | 4.5% | 58.4% | 53.2% |
| 2025 | 4.9% | 60.7% | 58.3% |
We almost reached 5% of the total contract value being tied to per game bonuses which is due to the shorter contract lengths and similar numbers being given to the per game contract figures. On the bright side the near 61% of value guaranteed for injury is the highest number since 2021 while the full guarantee is virtually tied for the high mark.
$7.5-$10M Per Year UFA Market
| Year | Players | Avg. Years | Avg Per Year | Avg. Per Game | Avg. Inj. Guarantee | Avg. Full Guarantee |
| 2021 | 12 | 2.2 | $8,176,389 | $812,500 | $10,979,167 | $10,200,000 |
| 2022 | 15 | 2.6 | $8,621,278 | $703,333 | $12,237,667 | $11,798,333 |
| 2023 | 12 | 2.4 | $8,604,167 | $880,000 | $11,575,417 | $10,533,750 |
| 2024 | 18 | 2.4 | $8,138,889 | $926,389 | $12,537,500 | $10,623,333 |
| 2025 | 15 | 2.1 | $8,455,267 | $1,315,533 | $10,581,333 | $9,916,000 |
We continue our years drop trend here and see a massive spike in per game bonuses per contract with 93 percent of the players receiving a per game bonus. That was just 58% from 2021 to 2023 and 72% just a year ago.
| Year | % Per Game | % Inj. Guar. | % Full Guar. |
| 2021 | 4.6% | 62.1% | 57.7% |
| 2022 | 3.2% | 55.1% | 53.1% |
| 2023 | 4.3% | 56.0% | 51.0% |
| 2024 | 4.6% | 61.6% | 52.2% |
| 2025 | 7.6% | 60.7% | 56.9% |
It is hard to see here anything remotely positive. Guarantees are not significantly up while we have gone from a high of 4.6% of the total contract value of all player contracts in this range to 7.6%!
$5-$7.5M Per Year UFA Market
| Year | Players | Avg. Years | Avg Per Year | Avg. Per Game | Avg. Inj. Guarantee | Avg. Full Guarantee |
| 2021 | 28 | 2.0 | $5,639,732 | $781,250 | $6,516,071 | $6,355,357 |
| 2022 | 40 | 2.3 | $6,105,917 | $692,500 | $7,574,875 | $7,086,750 |
| 2023 | 45 | 2.4 | $6,104,000 | $490,044 | $8,810,556 | $8,183,444 |
| 2024 | 32 | 2.1 | $6,288,672 | $886,563 | $7,801,094 | $7,446,250 |
| 2025 | 38 | 2.1 | $6,074,715 | $673,553 | $7,901,316 | $7,212,368 |
I would say that this is probably the only category where we are seeing some positive trends for the players in the use of per game bouses and the guarantee figures.
| Year | % Per Game | % Inj. Guar. | % Full Guar. |
| 2021 | 6.7% | 56.1% | 54.7% |
| 2022 | 5.0% | 54.4% | 50.9% |
| 2023 | 3.2% | 58.1% | 53.9% |
| 2024 | 6.6% | 58.1% | 55.5% |
| 2025 | 5.2% | 60.9% | 55.6% |
5.2% is a nice decline from last season at 6.6% of value ties up in per game bonuses. While full guarantees have remained steady we did see injury protection eek up a bit with teams giving a little more in the 2nd year of a contract. It is possible that some of this is due to the CBA mandated injury protection which makes it a little easier for a team to throw more injury protection into a contract since they are obliged to honor some of the 2nd year salary if the player is hurt and his contract is terminated anyway.
$2-$5M Per Year UFA Market
| Year | Players | Avg. Years | Avg Per Year | Avg. Per Game | Avg. Inj. Guarantee | Avg. Full Guarantee |
| 2021 | 96 | 1.8 | $3,140,904 | $425,885 | $2,947,006 | $2,744,662 |
| 2022 | 107 | 1.5 | $3,053,014 | $469,678 | $2,610,416 | $2,539,154 |
| 2023 | 119 | 1.6 | $3,026,078 | $399,723 | $2,896,227 | $2,709,084 |
| 2024 | 124 | 1.5 | $3,117,856 | $393,669 | $2,612,024 | $2,554,865 |
| 2025 | 116 | 1.4 | $2,971,418 | $396,655 | $2,464,802 | $2,431,138 |
While the excitement of free agency is driven by the massive contract signed every year it is always important to be realistic about where most free agents wind up salary wise. Through late March we are at 116 signings between $2 and $5 million per year which is slightly more than 50% of all signings so far. The average salary this year dipped below $3M for the first time in the last five years but with a few days left in March it might get back to the $3M number.
| Year | % Per Game | % Inj. Guar. | % Full Guar. |
| 2021 | 7.6% | 52.9% | 49.3% |
| 2022 | 9.9% | 54.8% | 53.3% |
| 2023 | 8.0% | 58.0% | 54.3% |
| 2024 | 8.4% | 55.8% | 54.5% |
| 2025 | 9.4% | 58.2% | 57.4% |
We are seeing a spike in per game bonuses here too but it is not the high mark which is a positive. Guarantees as a percentage of contract value are up and that is a fair tradeoff if the size of these contracts do end up just under the $3M mark.
One final note is that despite the massive jump in cap room I would not say that we are seeing an offset in contract size. With the cap up 154% from 2021 total contract value is up 136%. Last year seemed to be more in line with the growth though again that may just be due to this years crop of free agents, but I do think it is worth noting when many times we equate cap growth to overall contract explosions.
| Year | Total Contract Value | % Over 2021 | Salary Cap | % Over 2021 |
| 2021 | $2,710,985,902 | – | $182,500,000 | – |
| 2022 | $3,260,614,500 | 120.3% | $208,200,000 | 114.1% |
| 2023 | $2,952,893,000 | 108.9% | $224,800,000 | 123.2% |
| 2024 | $3,892,425,000 | 143.6% | $255,400,000 | 139.9% |
| 2025 | $3,672,732,000 | 135.5% | $279,200,000 | 153.0% |