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Salary Cap Update

We have updated all of the team salary cap numbers to account for the adjustments that come to each team for 2024. Typically these are for things like incentives that counted on the cap in 2023 but were not earned, credits for bonus repayments, guaranteed salary offsets, and per game bonus credits. In addition to the team carryover these now make up a team’s adjusted salary cap.

The team with the most positive adjustments for the season were the New England Patriots with $10.64 million. They were followed by the Jaguars at $6.5 million and 49ers at $5.7M. Seven teams had negative adjustments. The most came from the Bucs with a loss of $5.2M in cap room. They were followed by the Super Bowl champion Chiefs with a loss of $4.7 million in cap room, and the Raves with a loss of $3.8 million.

Overall, the 49ers will have the biggest adjusted cap for the season at $296.6 million. They are closely followed by the Browns at $289.9 million. Both of those teams had massive carryover figures from 2023. These were by design as both teams knew they would need to create significant 2023 cap space to help in 2024. There is a big gap between these two teams and the number three team (Cardinals), at $269.6M. Three teams will have an adjusted cap during free agency that is less than the $255.4M limit set by the NFL. These teams are the previously mentioned Chiefs, Bucs, and Ravens.

The average adjusted cap will be $261.8M, up over $6M from the unadjusted salary cap figure. The median will be $259.6M. We currently estimate seven teams over the cap following the adjustments. These teams are the 49ers, Cowboys, Broncos, Saints, Chargers, Dolphins, and Bills. These teams have until the first day of the league year to make restructures and cuts so they can be salary cap compliant. The Patriots lead the NFL with about $88M in cap room.

Saints to Release Marcus Maye

The Saints will be releasing safety Marcus Maye according to Jordan Schultz of Bleacher Report.

Maye had signed a three year, $22.5 million contract with the Saints as a free agent in 2022, but availability was an issue for Maye during his two years as a Saint. Maye only appeared in 17 games in two years for the Saints, including missing three games due to suspension. Maye will leave the team with $8.456 million in dead money which would only open up $1.19 million in cap room for the Saints if he is not designated a post June 1 cut.

The wording from Schultz’ report would certainly indicate that the Saints plan on making Maye a June 1 cut, which is interesting. At this time the Saints already have two contracts structured in a way where they have to be released as a post June 1 cut- QB Jameis Winston and WR Michael Thomas. Since you are only allowed two post June 1 designations that would seem to leave Maye as the odd man out (his dead money would be less than the others on a standard release) unless the team is actively working to re-sign one of the other two players. Thomas would be the logical one of the two and he was in a similar contract situation last year when he and the Saints agreed to continue together rather than releasing him as originally intended. Just something to keep an eye on.

If Maye is a post June 1 cut, he will count for $9.65 million on the Saints salary cap through June 1. On June 2nd the number would drop to $2.414 million, opening up $7.235 million in cap room for the Saints. His 2025 dead money would be $6.042 million under that scenario. It is possible that Maye’s roster status was negatively impacted by the salary cap growing so much. Without that added cap room the Saints may have been in a position where they had to restructure Maye’s contract rather than releasing him so they could be compliant with the 2024 salary cap.

Vikings to Release Mattison

The Vikings have informed RB Alexander Mattison that he will be released according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter

Mattison had signed a two year, $7 million contract just last season with $6.35 million in guaranteed salary. His salary cap charge for 2024 was $4.6 million and he will leave behind $1.25 million in dead money, saving the Vikings $3.35 million in cap room. Mattison had $2.75 million that would have been fully guaranteed if he was on the roster on the 3rd day of the league year.

Mattison was given the starting job last year following the release of Dalvin Cook but failed to capitalize on the opportunity, rushing for 700 yards on 180 carries. He will join a crowded field of free agent running backs in 2024. The release should put the Vikings about $39 million under the salary cap for 2024.

NFL Sets Salary Cap at $255.4M

The NFL has officially set the salary cap for 2024 at $255.4M, a massive $30.6 million increase from 2023. The increase is nearly the size of the original salary cap set in 1994 of $34.6 million. While this was in line with our original estimates our revisions based on opinions from various people around the NFL had our cap calculations based on a $242.5 million cap so every team will have a big change on their salary cap pages due to this difference.

I would not expect the changes from this to occur every year. The reason our original estimate was so high was simply because the cap for the last few years has been artificially held down by Covid paybacks. Had Covid not occurred the 2023 salary cap likely would have been around $233 million, so this represents more of a $23M increase over the true baseline. While that is still gigantic it is not the same as a $30 million increase.

This increase, which should represent the influx of new television money, is, on a percentage basis, very similar to how the NFL cap increased the last time the new television contracts hit the salary cap and then the cap grew at a steady pace until Covid hit. So if we are guessing on the future I would say a $23-$26M increase in cap will become the new norm.

As far as what this does around the NFL? Not much. With the exception of the teams in really bad salary cap shape (i.e. Bills, Saints) who get a reprieve the relative buying power of each team remains the same. Tenders will increase over expectations as will proven performance escalators and rookie contracts.

The interesting thing will be how much does this change the asking prices of players in free agency. In the past the increase in the cap has not had that kind of spike in wages, at least immediately. Most positions at the top do not increase at a significantly greater rate than the salary cap (normally those on the lower end see big jumps and then it catches up to the top), but we have also never seen a jump like this.

This is one of the earliest times I can recall the cap being announced. Usually it comes at the tail end of the combine or sometime later. My guess would be because the number was going to be so large the league wanted to get ahead of this before the combine so contract discussions can focus on using the right numbers rather than working with lower figures and having it blow up in everyone’s face a week later and rendering a lot of the work pointless.

This does make for an interesting free agency period. Usually players sign during the open negotiating window and free agency is done before it officially even begins but if teams are not willing to push the top of the market it may be a year where the agents and teams clash more over value. This also should make the franchise players really dig in on holding firm on signing an extension since there is little benefit to signing now unless the team is going to really make a great offer. So it might make for a crazy couple of weeks,

Saints Restructure Carr’s Contract for $23M in Cap Relief

The Saints have a long road to becoming salary cap compliant for 2024 but they have made their their big move since the last week of the regular season with 2024 in mind- restructuring the contract of QB Derek Carr for salary cap relief, per ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler.

The Saints likely converted the maximum ($28.79 million) of Carr’s $30 million salary to a bonus which would reduce his salary cap number by $23.032 million, going from $35.7 million down to $12.67 million. The move will increase Carr’s future salary cap numbers by about $5.76 million per season. Carr’s 2025 salary cap figure is now $51.46 million, 5th highest in the NFL.

His dead money in 2025 now sits at $40.132 million an increase of $23 million from where it originally was. While this certainly does not guarantee him a roster spot in 2025 it will give him a much better chance of maintaining his status as starting QB even if he plays at an average or slightly below average level in 2024.

Since the end of the year the Saints have created a total of $37.513 million in 2024 cap room. In addition to the $23 million from Carr, they have saved $7.18 million with a restructure of Erik McCoy’s contract and deferred $7.3 million to 2025 with a change in effective void date of Jameis Winston’s contract. The Saints are still an estimated $53 million over the salary cap. They rank 31st in estimated cap room ahead of only the Buffalo Bills at a projected $55 million over.

Seahawks Create $4.8M in Salary Cap Space

The Seahawks have created some cap room for 2024 according to ESPN’s Field Yates, converting QB Geno Smith’s $9.6 million roster bonus into a signing bonus. The roster bonus was going to be earned on the 5th day of the league year so making the move now allows Seattle to free up $4.8 million of cap room.

Smith’s 2024 cap number dropped from $31.2 million to $26.4 million as part of the restructure. His cap number for 2025 rose from $33.7 million to $38.5 million. If Smith is cut in 2025 his dead money will now be $13.5 million. Smith still has a $12.7 million base salary that can be restructured is more cap room is needed for this year, but there is no real deadline on that conversion.

This restructure puts the Seahawks right around even with the estimated cap for 2024. They have multiple players on the roster whose contracts can be restructured for cap relief and they then have to make decisions on the roster status of Jamal Adams, Will Dissly, and Quandre Diggs. The release of all three would free up around $25 million in cap room. The Seahawks currently rank 22nd in cap space for 2024.