Recent Posts by

NFL Offensive and Defensive Scoring Efficiency, Week 8

Here are the updated rankings for the teams after 8 games. You can read more about how we calculate them but basically it measures how many more points you score or allow than your schedules particular average. the average performance of the teams on their schedule. This year has a large number of teams basically nearing the middle and really nobody who stands out as dominant leaving this a wide open season unless you are the Jets who skew everything in a negative direction.

Here is the data in table form.

TeamPoints ScoredPoints AllowedTotal EfficiencyPredicted Wins

Add OTC to Your Google News Feed to stay up to date with our updates

Kwon Alexander Traded to the Saints

The Saints made a pretty interesting acquisition today, making a move for 49ers linebacker Kwon Alexander for Kiko Alonso and a conditional fifth round draft pick. Alexander was one of the prize free agent signings of the 49ers in 2019, signing a very stunning (at least to me), four year, $54 million contract. Just a season and a half later and he is now a Saint.

I really like this move for New Orleans who is clearly all in on this season. The team is facing an absolute salary cap nightmare for 2021 and may have no quarterback on the roster other than Taysom Hill to boot so doing anything in their power to get better makes sense. Alexander has Pro Bowl talent if healthy which is always a big if when it comes to Alexander.

The Saints will not pick up much salary with the move. Alexander has $2.64 million in base salary remaining on his contract in 2020 and another $420K in potential roster bonuses that he can earn. So if things work out the team will only owe $3.06 million for what they hope will be a Super Bowl run. By trading Alonso, who has been on PUP all season, they also shed $900,000 in salary cap space making this at most a $2.2 million risk. We estimated that the Saints had $7.4 million in cap space before this trade so there is still room to add more if they can find a player they want.

Alexander has no guarantees in his contract for 2021 (there is a vesting injury guarantee which basically offers no protection) so the $13.4 million cost that this will have for 2021 is meaningless since they can walk away with no issue. If he plays great they could look to recover the 5th round pick, but most likely this will be a player who is released come March. There is $0 dead money for the Saints if cut.

For San Francisco this is more about fixing a mistake and getting some cap relief at the same time. This contract really surprised me when it came down because Alexander was hurt all the time. He had only played 12 games in 2015, 11 games in 2017 and 6 games in 2018 and that kind of history should never lead to a $13.5M a year contract for a linebacker. Not surprisingly Alexander only appeared in 8 games last season and then just 5 games this year. The 49ers wound up paying Alexander $23.562 million for just 13 games across 1 1/2 seasons, an uncharacteristically big blunder for one of the best front offices in the NFL.

The team had tinkered with the contract last year for cap relief so there is a good deal of dead money affiliated with the contract. Alexander will count for $4.86 million in cap charges this year and $6.91 million in dead money next year. By making the trade they will save the $2.2 million in net cap costs mentioned above when discussing the Saints.

Prior to the trade we estimated that the 49ers would be right at the salary cap limit for 2021 if the salary cap winds up being $176 million so now they should be at $10.3 million in effective cap space. The 49ers can save close to $30 million next year if they bail on Jimmy Garoppolo and Dee Ford next season and begin to retool the team around their more productive core players.

Given where each team stands for this year and next I like this for both teams. The 49ers get a little cap relief and maybe a draft pick for a player who was going to be cut while the Saints dont take on too much salary for a player who may help the defense in crunch time.

NFL Leaders in Salary on Injured Lists

With teams about to take the turn to the halfway point I wanted to take a snapshot of how much teams are currently impacted by injury. What we did here was look at how much in terms of salary cap dollars and annual contract value were on reserve lists associated with being injured- IR, PUP, and NFI (Covid lists are not included) and what percent of a teams allocation on the season is sitting there.

There team most hurt by injuries is the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys have 30% of their salary cap sitting on reserve with just under 29% of the their total contract value sitting on the sidelines. Both are NFL highs. While Dallas is certainly having a disappointing year injuries are playing a big role.

The 49ers and Broncos are neck and neck for the next spot and both have done a good job overcoming adversity this year. Both squads are right around 27% of their roster value on IR and between 28 and 29% of their salary cap values on IR. The Broncos were higher earlier this year but did get their QB back. The teams rank 1st and 2nd in players on reserve the 49ers having 16 players hurt and the Broncos having 12 hurt. If I had to say which has it worse Id lean San Francisco who lost bigger value players whose impact is understated using salary metrics since they are on rookie contracts.

The Panthers are fourth with about 23% of their roster values hurt but they should take a big turn for the better next week when Christian McCaffrey is activated.

The Bengals have 19% of their roster value on IR and 17% of their cap value on IR while the Eagles are 4th in the NFL with $4M in contract value on IR but their roster value is so high it only makes up 18%, which puts them at 6th.

The Falcons are the healthiest team in the NFL which just makes their terrible start even more mind boggling. Usually a healthy roster leads to over-perfoming if anything. he Bills have some players on the sidelines but none hurt enough to land on IR. They have just 1.2% of their roster value on reserve.

The Lions and Rams have 2.1% and 2.2% respectively hurt. The Rams number went down yesterday with the activation of A’Shawn Robinson who had a questionable NFI designation. Teams should study what the Rams do because every year their team is generally healthy and its too consistent to just be dumb luck. The Chiefs round out the top five.

The following table has the full list as of this morning.

TeamPlayersCap on ReserveContract Value on Reserve% Cap on Reserve% Contract Value on Reserve
Football Team11$26,518,658$29,623,71015.9%16.4%

Practice Squad Elevation Tracker: Week 8

Here is the updated list of practice squad elevations on the season. With the trade deadline coming up and veterans being exposed to waivers after the deadline it may be a time to see if more veterans get elevated or not. A player is only eligible to be elevated two times per team each year.

NameTeamPositionTimes Elevated
Trevon ColeyCardinalsDT2
Jonathan WardCardinalsRB2
Terrell BondsRavensCB2
Khalil DorseyRavensCB2
Jordan RichardsRavensS2
Kristian WelchRavensLT2
Andre SmithBillsLB2
Justin ZimmerBillsDT2
Reggie BonnafonPanthersRB2
Freedom AkinmoladunBengalsEDGE2
Trayvon HendersonBengalsS2
Kahlil McKenzieBengalsRG2
Robert JacksonBrownsCB2
Marcus HenryCowboysC2
LeVante BellamyBroncosRB2
Jeremy CoxBroncosRB2
Derrek TuszkaBroncosDE2
Josh WatsonBroncosLB2
Isaac NautaLionsTE2
Henry BlackPackersS2
John LovettPackersTE2
C.J. ProsiseTexansRB2
Jake EldrenkampColtsRG2
Ben EllefsonJaguarsTE2
K.C. McDermottJaguarsLT2
Darius BradwellChargersRB2
Tae HayesDolphinsCB2
Benito JonesDolphinsDT2
Mark FieldsVikingsCB2
Tashawn BowerPatriotsEDGE2
Nick ThurmanPatriotsDE2
Isaiah ZuberPatriotsWR2
Austin CarrSaintsWR2
Bennie FowlerSaintsWR2
Garrett GriffinSaintsTE2
Margus HuntSaintsDT2
Josh AdamsJetsRB2
Lawrence CagerJetsWR2
Lamar JacksonJetsCB2
Josh MaloneJetsWR2
Grayland ArnoldEaglesS2
Deontay BurnettEaglesWR2
Elijah RileyEaglesS2
Trey EdmundsSteelersTE2
Jayrone ElliottSteelersEDGE2
Johnathan Cyprien49ersS2
Hroniss Grasu49ersC2
Joe Walker49ersLB2
Kevin White49ersWR2
Cyril GraysonBuccaneersWR2
Jeremy McNicholsTitansRB2
Joshua GarnettFootball TeamLG2
Jared NorrisFootball TeamLB2
Cam SimsFootball TeamWR2
Sean ChandlerGiantsS2
Cameron BatsonTitansWR2
Eric SmithCowboysLT2
Kenjon BarnerBuccaneersRB2
Steven ParkerCowboysS2
Billy WinnPackersDE2
Deon LaceyBillsLB2
Torry McTyerBengalsCB2
George IlokaVikingsS2
Temarrick HemingwayFootball TeamTE2
Devante BondBearsLB2
Marcus JohnsonColtsWR2
Tyler HallFalconsCB2
Jason CroomEaglesTE2
Damarious RandallSeahawksS2
Mike WhiteJetsQB2
Marcus KempChiefsWR2
Trent HarrisGiantsEDGE2
Sergio CastilloJetsK1
Reggie WalkerCardinalsLB1
Jace WhittakerCardinalsCB1
Delrick AbramsFalconsCB1
Jamal CarterFalconsLB1
Edmond RobinsonFalconsLB1
Trystan Colon-CastilloRavensC1
Bryan Cox Jr.BillsEDGE1
Dane JacksonBillsCB1
Cameron LewisBillsCB1
Duke WilliamsBillsWR1
Woodrow HamiltonPanthersDT1
Chris OrrPanthersLB1
Tyler BrayBearsQB1
Cairo SantosBearsK1
Amani BledsoeBengalsDT1
Elijah BentonBrownsS1
A.J. GreenBrownsCB1
Deante BurtonCowboysCB1
Brandon CarrCowboysS1
P.J. LockeBroncosS1
Patrick MorrisBroncosC1
Jake RodgersBroncosRT1
Kevin StrongLionsDT1
Dee VirginLionsCB1
Kenny WigginsLionsRG1
Jonathan WilliamsLionsRB1
Tipa GaleaiPackersEDGE1
Willington PrevilonPackersDE1
Nate HallTexansDE1
Jonathan OwensTexansS1
Scottie PhillipsTexansRB1
Farrod GreenColtsTE1
De’Michael HarrisColtsWR1
Nathan CottrellJaguarsRB1
Mike GlennonJaguarsQB1
Caraun ReidJaguarsDT1
Braxton HoyettChiefsDE1
Keelan DossRaidersWR1
Kyle EmanuelRaidersLB1
Madre HarperRaidersCB1
Datone JonesRaidersDT1
Theo RiddickRaidersRB1
Chris SmithRaidersEDGE1
Javin WhiteRaidersLB1
Ryan GroyChargersLG1
Tyron JohnsonChargersWR1
Gabe NabersChargersTE1
Cole TonerChargersRG1
Marquise CopelandRamsDE1
Juju HughesRamsS1
Derrick MoncriefRamsLB1
Natrez PatrickRamsLB1
Tyshun RenderDolphinsEDGE1
Nick FolkPatriotsK1
Xavier WilliamsPatriotsDT1
Juwan JohnsonSaintsWR1
Johnny HoltonGiantsWR1
Austin MackGiantsWR1
Jimmy MurrayJetsC1
Iosua OpetaEaglesLG1
Raequan WilliamsEaglesDT1
Trevor WilliamsEaglesCB1
Antoine BrooksSteelersS1
Deon CainSteelersWR1
River Cracraft49ersWR1
Darrion Daniels49ersDT1
JaMycal Hasty49ersRB1
Dontae Johnson49ersCB1
Jared Mayden49ersS1
Shaquem GriffinSeahawksLB1
Gavin HeslopSeahawksCB1
Ryan NealSeahawksCB1
Jayson StanleySeahawksCB1
Stephen SullivanSeahawksTE1
Chad WheelerSeahawksRT1
Tanner HudsonBuccaneersTE1
Jeremiah LedbetterBuccaneersDT1
Josh PearsonBuccaneersWR1
Mazzi WilkinsBuccaneersCB1
Kareem OrrTitansCB1
David QuessenberryTitansRG1
Nick WestbrookTitansWR1
Chad SladeGiantsRG1
Jordan ThomasCardinalsTE1
Kevin Toliver IIBroncosCB1
Danny IsidoraChiefsRG1
Hardy NickersonVikingsLB1
Ryan LewisGiantsCB1
Jordan DeveyBillsRG1
De’Jon HarrisPackersLB1
Anthony RushSeahawksDT1
Dexter WilliamsPackersRB1
Jaleel ScottJetsWR1
Caleb BenenochPatriotsRG1
Joey IvieBrownsDT1
T.Y. McGillEaglesDT1
Daren BatesTitansLB1
Brian Allen49ersCB1
Brandin BryantBillsDT1
Jeff BadetFootball TeamWR1
Troymaine PopeChargersRB1
Eric SaubertJaguarsTE1
Ross CockrellBuccaneersCB1
Jahleel AddaeChargersS1
Aldrick RosasJaguarsK1
Luther KirkVikingsS1
Ken CrawleySaintsCB1
Evan BaylisCardinalsTE1
Jordan MillsCowboysRT1
Joe GazianoChargersDE1
Michael JacquetEaglesCB1
Marcus GilchristRavensS1
Deion CalhounBengalsRG1
Devaroe LawrenceFootball TeamDT1
Elliott FryFalconsK1
Jamar Taylor49ersCB1
Nigel BradhamBroncosLB1
Alex BachmanGiantsWR1
Doug MiddletonJaguarsS1
Curtis RileyCardinalsS1
Will ClappSaintsC1
Jabaal SheardJaguarsEDGE1
Adam RedmondCowboysC1
Hercules Mata’afaVikingsDT1
David IrvingRaidersDT1
Ray-Ray ArmstrongSeahawksLB1
Saivion SmithCowboysCB1
Jamon BrownEaglesRG1
Bryce HagerJetsLB1
Jason MooreChargersWR1
Dwayne HarrisBearsWR1
Quinton SpainBengalsLG1

NFL Week 7 Player Valuations

The valuations for week 7 are now updated for each player who played this week. This week’s values are available for free on the valuations page and the full season numbers as well as results from week 1 through 6 are available for premium subscribers.

Top player of the week went to Drew Brees on offense and TJ Watt on defense. Our team of the week was the Chargers while the Patriots took a very unfamiliar spot as the worst in the league in week 7. Here were this week’s top valued players at each position.

PositionPlayerPositional ValueTotal Value
QBDrew Brees$38,621,000$38,621,000
RBChase Edmonds$16,486,000$17,059,000
WRTyler Lockett$22,585,000$22,674,000
WRKeenan Allen$22,049,000$22,049,000
TEDrew Sample$10,846,000$11,782,000
LTDion Dawkins$18,756,000$19,378,000
RTBobby Hart$15,687,000$15,820,000
CRyan Jensen$12,015,000$12,015,000
GChris Lindstrom$14,045,000$14,134,000
GMichael Jordan$13,011,000$13,541,000
EdgeT.J. Watt$24,838,000$25,330,000
EdgeLeonard Floyd$24,873,000$24,873,000
IDLAaron Donald$22,328,000$22,417,000
IDLDexter Lawrence$16,664,000$17,237,000
LBKenneth Murray$14,868,000$14,912,000
LBRoquan Smith$14,485,000$14,574,000
CBBashaud Breeland$19,046,000$19,046,000
CBPatrick Peterson$16,984,000$17,514,000
CBCarlton Davis$16,828,000$17,358,000
SQuandre Diggs$14,114,000$14,787,000
SJulian Love$13,660,000$14,660,000
PTy Long$3,066,000$3,066,000
KZane Gonzalez$3,775,000$3,775,000
LSAaron Brewer$1,422,000$1,422,000

View Week 7 Player Valuations

Add OTC to Your Google News Feed to stay up to date with our updates