Jason Fitzgerald

Jason is the founder of overthecap.com. Jason is considered an expert in NFL salary cap and contracts analysis and has consulted on many projects in the field of NFL contracts. He is a contributor to the Sporting News and has been interviewed by many news outlets to discuss contract related issues for specific teams and players.

Recent Posts by Jason

OTC Podcast: Previewing the 2019 Free Agent Pass Rushers

In this weeks OTC podcast I look at the available free agent pass rushers, which is probably the best grouping available this year. I discuss the likely franchise tag candidates, values for those who may make it to free agency, and which players may be released. I also answer all your questions from Twitter about this free agency period.

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2019 Potential Cuts: Offensive Tackle

Garry Gilliam, 49ers
Cap Saved: $5.05M; Cash Saved: $5.05M; Dead Money: $0

Gilliam the last two years has made $2.2 and $2.7 million from San Francisco, a perfectly acceptable amount for someone expected to be a backup player. However his salary this year balloons up to $5 million which is low level starter money.  They could bring his salary down but it would seem unlikely that he plays at this number.

Donald Penn, Raiders
Cap Saved: $5.48M; Cash Saved: $6.6M; Dead Money: $1.75

Signing Penn proved to be a great move for the Raiders but extending him in 2017 was not.  Penn didn’t play well in 2017 which led to a pay cut last season. Penn was hurt most of the year and given that they weren’t happy with his $8.35 million salary last year then they should be equally unhappy this year. Last year he accepted a pay cut and he does have a $1.75 million guarantee so maybe the Raiders offer something but I’d lean more to an outright release.

DJ Humphries, Cardinals
Cap Saved: $9.63M; Cash Saved: $9.63M; Dead Money: $0

This is an example of a questionable use of the rookie option coming back to hurt the team Humphries is simply never healthy and its at the point where you can not count on him. He has shown some upside but he is worth about half this number until he can prove that he can stay healthy and be productive.

Jeremy Parnell, Jaguars
Cap Saved: $6M; Cash Saved: $6M; Dead Money: $0

The Jaguars are going to have to slash some payroll this year and Parnell, entering the final year of his contract, would seem like a good candidate to go. Parnell will be 33 and has missed 6 games in the last two seasons and coming off a season where he started to show a decline in play.

Demar Dotson, Buccaneers
Cap Saved: $4.7M; Cash Saved: $4.73M; Dead Money: $50K

This is basically the same situation as above though he hasn’t missed as many games. The Bucs aren’t in as dire cap shape as the Jaguars but this is a player they could consider releasing.

Jason Peters, Eagles
Cap Saved: $10.5M; Cash Saved: $8M; Dead Money: $2.67M

The only reason I bring up Peters is because his cap number is so high that the Eagles will likely have to address his contract. Peters has accepted new deals in the past though at 37 I’m not sure how far the team would want to go.  Id put this as a pretty low probability cut but not a surprising contract modification.

2019 Potential Cuts: Tight End

Dwayne Allen, Patriots
Cap Saved: $7.4M; Cash Saved: $7.4M; Dead Money: $0

Allen has earned around $8.5 million from the Patriots in the last two seasons. For that the Patriots have gotten a total of 13 receptions for 113 yards and one touchdown while playing around 35% of the teams snaps. Even if Allen was the best blocking tight end in the NFL he would have zero percent chance of playing next year for $7.4 million. This contract he signed with the Colts should go into the players Hall of Fame for great contracts.

Dion Sims, Bears
Cap Saved: $6M; Cash Saved: $6M; Dead Money: $333K

Chicago gave this one a second shot last season and it proved to be a bad idea. Sims was injured and missed half the season, though it is not as if he was doing much before that. In those 8 games Sims put up 2 receptions for 9 yards while playing under 20% of the team’s offensive snaps. Cutting Sims will help the Bears open up some space to re-sign some players.

Charles Clay, Bills
Cap Saved: $4.5M; Cash Saved: $4.5M; Dead Money: $4.5M

Clay was signed pretty much the height of the insanity that was the Bills front office a few years ago. It was a bizarre contract that paid Clay nearly $25 million in the first two years because they were fearful that the Dolphins were going to match an offer. The structure was such that Clay was pretty much protected through four years. Clay was at least an average player in his time with the Bills but the bottom dropped out this year and they should be moving on now.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Jaguars
Cap Saved: $4.5M; Cash Saved: $5.25M; Dead Money: $1.6M

The Jaguars already informed Seferian-Jenkins that he will have his option declined and not be brought back in 2019. ASJ is a talented player that could really help a team if he could stay healthy.

Vernon Davis, Redskins
Cap Saved: $5M; Cash Saved: $5M; Dead Money: $1.33M

Davis is always capable of stringing a few good games together and even at 35 should be able to be part of an offense if he wants to keep playing, but the Redskins are in a strange spot because of their QB situation and can probably use the cap space. With Jordan Reed at such a high cap figure there is no real way to justify carrying both at their current numbers.

Jermaine Gresham, Cardinals
Cap Saved: $2.5M; Cash Saved: $4.25M; Dead Money: $5.75M

Essentially a lesser version of the Allen contract, Gresham’s deal makes him one of the higher paid tight ends on the NFL despite little in the way of production. Last season Gresham failed to reach 100 receiving yards despite playing in 13 games. Maybe they simply bring his salary down but there is no real reason to have him on an $8.25 million cap charge this season.

Kyle Rudolph, Vikings
Cap Saved: $7.63M; Cash Saved: $7.63M; Dead Money: $0

If the Vikings cut Rudolph it is likely a salary cap inspired move more than anything else. Rudolph is still a productive part of the offense so the more likely outcome here is a three eyar extension that brings his cap figure down while keeping his salary the same.

Jimmy Graham, Packers
Cap Saved: $5.33M; Cash Saved: $9M; Dead Money: $7.33M

If Graham was not on the Packers I’d have him much higher on this list, but since he is on Green Bay I consider a release pretty unlikely. Graham is still paid as if he is an elite receiving tight end when he simply is no longer that kind of player. He has finished with less than 650 yards in three of his last four seasons and last year just had two touchdowns.

2019 Potential Cuts: Wide Receiver

DeVante Parker, Dolphins
Cap Saved: $9.39M; Cash Saved: $9.39M; Dead Money: $0

Parker completely fell out of favor with the team last season which lead to a pretty public spat between the team and his agent. Parker finished the season with a career low 309 yards, 134 of which came in one game. Now it is possible that this rift was all related to former coach Adam Gase, but given the Dolphins cap situation and likely decision to rebuild it would make little sense to pay Parker $9.4 million for a season. His salary becomes guaranteed on the first day of free agency.

Demaryius Thomas, Texans
Cap Saved: $14M; Cash Saved: $14M; Dead Money: $0

The former Broncos franchise players has really trailed off the last two seasons. He was more or less an emergency addition for the Texans and they should not have any need for him at this price next year with everyone healthy. Thomas at this stage of his career is probably a decent veteran third target that will be good for 500 or so yards and a few red zone shots.

Travis Benjamin, Chargers
Cap Saved: $5.25M; Cash Saved: $5.25M; Dead Money: $1.25

Though it is likely that the Chargers will lose Tyrell Williams in free agency I can’t envision them thinking that Benjamin is going to somehow pick up the slack. Benjamin is coming off a sub 200 yard season and I can’t picture a team spending over $5 million for a few deep shots down the field for a player turning 30.

Torrey Smith, Panthers
Cap Saved: $5M; Cash Saved: $5M; Dead Money: $0

The Panthers may be desperate for wide receivers but Smith should not be retained at this price.  Smith finished 2018 with just 190 yards in 11 games for the Panthers and hasn’t produced a 500 yard season since 2015.

DeSean Jackson, Buccaneers
Cap Saved: $10M; Cash Saved: $10M; Dead Money: $0

The Bucs have indicated that they want Jackson back but Jackson seems to want out and maybe the talk of wanting him back is to try to open a trade market. Jackson didn’t really fit that well with the Bucs offense and never meshed that well with Jameis Winston. He should have been a good fit and should be a good fit in the new offense but sometimes its just best to move on in relationships like this one.

Seth Roberts, Raiders
Cap Saved: $4.65M; Cash Saved: $4.65M; Dead Money: $0

The price on Roberts is a bit high for his production and given the Raiders lack of depth at the position I could see them keeping him, but most likely he will be released as Gruden makes over the roster with his guys.

Terrance Williams, Cowboys
Cap Saved: $2.25M; Cash Saved: $3.5M; Dead Money: $2.5M

It was just an awful season for Williams. Off the field issues led to a suspension. He dealt with injuries. All in all he saw action in 3 games and produced 18 yards in those 3 games. I thought Williams was a steal at the price the Cowboys signed him for but ever since signing the deal he’s regressed and should be on the way out.

Allen Hurns, Cowboys
Cap Saved: $5M; Cash Saved: $5M; Dead Money: $1.25M

Hurns suffered a terrible injury in this years playoffs and will have a good chance to earn at least a portion of his salary because of that, but with so many big extensions on the horizon I would anticipate Dallas making a change here. Hurns simply never recaptured the magic of his one season with the Jaguars where he broke out for over 1,000 yards and last year finished under 300 yards for the first time in his career.

Pierre Garcon, 49ers
Cap Saved: $1.08M; Cash Saved: $6M; Dead Money: $7.2M

The 49ers haven’t struck with too many of their recent signings and the Garcon signing was pretty typical of the type of player they signed. Garcon has been neither healthy nor productive in his two years with the 49ers. They don’t really save any cap room by cutting Garcon but I can’t come up with a logical reason to pay him $6 million either.

Michael Crabtree, Ravens
Cap Saved: $4.67M; Cash Saved: $7M; Dead Money: $4.67M

Crabtree struggled with his hands most of the season and finished the season with the lowest per game totals of his career. Crabtree had looked like his career had taken a downward turn in his final year in Oakland and nothing changed this year to make anyone think otherwise. Crabtree is not finished but he also is no longer a $7 million receiver.

Danny Amendola, Dolphins
Cap Saved: $6M; Cash Saved: $6M; Dead Money: $0

Amendola more or less gave the Dolphins everything that could have been expected and if they were happy with the $6 million price tag then he won’t be cut. I only mention him here because that $6 million number was bloated to start with. Given that they have re-shuffled their front office they may value him lower than this and would look to move on.

Nelson Agholor, Eagles
Cap Saved: $9.4M; Cash Saved: $9.4M; Dead Money: $0

Agholor has been pretty steady the last two years with around 700 yards a season and while he is likely never going to live up to the lofty first round expectations he is worth a long term deal somewhere in this price range. The question is will it be with the Eagles?  The Eagles are tight with the salary cap and they did look to add to the receiving corps with the trade for Golden Tate mid season which may say something about what they think about Agholor’s value. I would not be surprised if he is extended but would be mildly surprised if he plays the year out at this figure.

2019 Potential Cuts: Running Back

Carlos Hyde, Jaguars
Cap Saved: $4.7M; Cash Saved: $4.7M; Dead Money: $0M

The Jaguars brought Hyde in on a mid-season trade while dealing with injuries to the running backs. Hyde was completely ineffective and there should be zero reason for him to stay in 2019. He has $3 million that becomes guaranteed three days into free agency so this should be an early decision.

Jonathan Stewart, Giants
Cap Saved: $2.5M; Cash Saved: $3.45M; Dead Money: $0M

It’s hard to say that a contract this small was one of the worst of the year, but this one was. Stewart has done a tremendous job with his contracts given his production and injuries throughout his career. My guess is this is the last one for anything meaningful. Technically this will be a declined option rather than a release.

LeSean McCoy, Bills
Cap Saved: $6.43M; Cash Saved: $6.43M; Dead Money: $2.63M

McCoy fell off a cliff this season with career lows in almost every category possible. He basically had one game all season where he looked like the McCoy of old. Given that the Bills should be turning over their roster it’s probably best for both sides to move on. McCoy will likely get a look from a playoff type team for a few million in free agency.

Isaiah Crowell, Jets
Cap Saved: $3M; Cash Saved: $4M; Dead Money: $2M

Crowell looks like another in a long line of mediocre free agent signings by the Jets. Crowell’s overall numbers looked fine for the year but that was because of a monstrous 219 yard game on just 15 carries against Denver and a 100 yard effort in week 1 against the Lions. He was invisible from week 6 onward before landing on IR late in the year. Jets may have their eyes on bigger players.

Chris Ivory, Bills
Cap Saved: $2.25M; Cash Saved: $2.25M; Dead Money: $750K

Ivory isn’t expensive and maybe the Bills see a short yardage role for him but they should be able to find a cheaper option that can do at least the same as Ivory. Ivory hasn’t made any impact in his last three seasons since he left the Jets for a big contract with the Jaguars.

2019 Potential Cuts: Quarterback

Joe Flacco, Ravens
Cap Saved: $10.5M; Cash Saved: $18.5M; Dead Money: $16M

One of the worst structured contracts in modern NFL memory, the Ravens should have no choice but to move on now that the team has made the turn to Lamar Jackson at quarterback. The Ravens would be better off finding someone that has a similar skillset to Jackson to play as a backup and one who will be cheaper than Flacco. Flacco could have some trade value but it’s probably easier to just release him.

Blake Bortles, Jaguars
Cap Saved: $4.312M; Cash Saved: $9.5M; Dead Money: $16.5M

Jacksonville would like a do over on this contract decision. Last year the Jaguars did a moderate extension for Bortles that gave him an added $7 million in guaranteed salary and pushed a bunch of cap charges to the future. Not surprisingly Bortles ended up benched midway through the season and is now a salary cap eyesore. Jacksonville could try to reduce his salary and bring him back to compete for a job but the stigma is so bad they may just want to get rid of him outright even though they need to still pay him $6.5 million whether or not he is on the team.

Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
Cap Saved: $13.1M; Cash Saved: $18.75M; Dead Money: $13.4M

Similar to the Jaguars situation with Bortles they could look to reduce his salary since they don’t have any other options but it may just be time to move on. Tannehill has virtually zero upside and can’t stay healthy. This contract was the fault of an over-aggressive front office putting too much stock into draft status and wanting to show belief in the QB. They doubled down by restructuring his deal last season which made absolutely no sense at all and just increased that dead money number even further.

AJ McCarron, Raiders
Cap Saved: $5M; Cash Saved: $5M; Dead Money: $0

Raiders took McCarron on as a backup last year after the Bills basically paid his salary for the season. They should be able to find a cheaper option for next season to backup Carr.

Eli Manning, Giants
Cap Saved: $17M; Cash Saved: $17M; Dead Money: $6.2M

At this point I’d lean more towards Manning remaining a Giant than playing elsewhere though I do expect that the Giants will look for a pay cut this season out of Eli. Manning is on his last legs but the Giants have no other options at this time and I’m not sure they can get a deal done in free agency before his $5 million roster bonus is due on the 5th day of free agency. They misplayed this one badly and desperately need to draft a QB this year.

Case Keenum, Broncos
Cap Saved: $11M; Cash Saved: $11M; Dead Money: $10M

The post-Manning era Broncos have been a disaster when it comes to the QB position with Keenum being the latest attempt to find a starter.  Keenum still has $7 million in guarantees and it’s a bit hard to see John Elway and the Broncos just paying him that to leave. Since this should pose Keenum’s best opportunity to stay as a starter, expect the Broncos to offer him a heavily incentivized deal to stay in Denver for just that $7 million guaranteed salary.