2025 Top 100 Possible Cut Candidates

After seeing reasonably good results from this exercise last season, let’s take a look once again at a list of players who could see their contracts terminated or negatively altered in the leadup to the start of the next league year. Looking at the list of pending unrestricted free agents coming from contracts that are expiring is regularly a useful starting point, but as we all know, more players will become available free agents to sign by being cut from their previous teams.

This list is an attempt to add some visibility on which players could be cut in the coming months. The metrics used are OTC’s estimation of contract fate, and the regular season OTC Valuation metric from 2024 when compared to the league median, to try to forecast a more accurate picture.

As always, it is stressed that most players on this list will likely not be cut. There are many mitigating factors as to why players show up on this list. One of course is injury, particularly to players who missed most of the season–although it can also be an aggravating factor if the team determines that injury has made the player unreliable on his contract. Quality of roster depth at the player’s position is another. Teams are also always willing and able to break the trends of contract fate and keep players they think will be helpful for next season’s roster. Common sense needs to be applied as to which players on this list are unlikely to be cut, even if it’s informative to see them on the list.

With that, this list is built from the players who:

NameTeamPositionAgeAPY2025 Cash Due2025 Guaranteed SalarySeasons Completed/
Contract Length
2024 OTC Valuation Above Starter MedianOdds Of Negative Fate
Tyrod TaylorJetsQB36$6,000,000$6,000,000$2,500,0001/2($29,739,000)54.2%
Gardner MinshewRaidersQB29$12,500,000$12,500,000$3,160,0001/2($22,315,000)54.2%
Samson EbukamColtsEDGE30$8,000,000$8,000,000$02/3($9,313,000)73.1%
Kalif RaymondLionsWR31$5,250,000$4,900,000$01/2($9,171,000)76.8%
Josh ReynoldsJaguarsWR30$4,500,000$4,500,000$01/2($9,113,000)76.8%
Christian KirkJaguarsWR29$18,000,000$16,500,000$03/4($8,086,000)78.7%
Denico AutryTexansEDGE35$10,000,000$9,000,000$01/2($8,020,000)59.6%
Tyquan LewisColtsEDGE30$6,000,000$4,790,000$01/2($7,811,000)59.6%
Yetur Gross-Matos49ersEDGE27$9,000,000$8,000,000$01/2($7,584,000)59.6%
Ogbonnia OkoronkwoBrownsEDGE30$6,333,333$6,000,000$02/3($7,475,000)73.1%
D.J. WonnumPanthersEDGE28$6,250,000$7,500,000$01/2($6,996,000)59.6%
Sam HubbardBengalsEDGE30$10,000,000$9,600,000$03/4($6,355,000)69.2%
Tyler HigbeeRamsTE32$8,500,000$7,500,000$2,000,0001/2($6,349,000)64.5%
Miles SandersPanthersRB28$6,350,000$6,700,000$02/4($6,165,000)62.5%
Joey BosaChargersEDGE30$20,180,000$25,360,000$01/2($5,970,000)59.6%
Adam ThielenPanthersWR35$8,333,333$6,750,000$02/3($5,949,000)68.8%
Gerald EverettBearsTE31$6,000,000$5,500,000$01/2($5,910,000)64.5%
Cameron JordanSaintsEDGE36$13,250,000$12,500,000$1,500,0001/2($5,874,000)59.6%
Raekwon DavisColtsIDL28$7,000,000$6,490,000$01/2($5,848,000)62.9%
Sheldon RankinsBengalsIDL31$12,250,000$10,500,000$01/2($5,763,000)62.9%
Taysom HillSaintsTE35$10,000,000$10,000,000$03/4($5,574,000)66.7%
A.J. EpenesaBillsEDGE27$6,000,000$6,200,000$01/2($5,063,000)59.6%
Allen LazardJetsWR30$11,000,000$11,000,000$02/4($4,877,000)61.7%
James BradberryEaglesCB32$12,666,667$18,000,000$02/3($4,756,000)67.5%
Shy TuttlePanthersIDL30$6,500,000$6,500,000$02/3($4,597,000)62.5%
Jonathan AllenCommandersIDL30$18,000,000$17,000,000$03/4($4,124,000)56.4%
Dane JacksonPanthersCB29$4,250,000$4,350,000$1,000,0001/2($4,070,000)65.0%
Larry OgunjobiSteelersIDL31$9,583,333$7,000,000$02/3($3,933,000)62.5%
Khalen SaundersSaintsIDL29$4,100,000$4,000,000$02/3($3,866,000)62.5%
Cole HolcombSteelersLB29$6,000,000$6,000,000$02/3($3,821,000)76.5%
Ja’Whaun BentleyPatriotsLB29$6,750,000$5,500,000$01/2($3,594,000)58.8%
Marcus WilliamsRavensS29$14,000,000$12,000,000$03/5($3,539,000)63.2%
Juan ThornhillBrownsS30$7,000,000$7,000,000$02/3($3,537,000)75.4%
Nathan ShepherdSaintsIDL32$5,000,000$5,320,000$02/3($3,334,000)62.5%
C.J. MosleyJetsLB33$8,625,000$8,250,000$4,250,0001/2($3,095,000)58.8%
Amik RobertsonLionsCB27$4,625,000$4,750,000$01/2($2,998,000)65.0%
Jordan WhiteheadBuccaneersS28$4,500,000$4,500,000$01/2($2,990,000)53.7%
Jaire AlexanderPackersCB28$21,000,000$17,500,000$02/4($2,828,000)57.5%
Dallas GoedertEaglesTE30$14,250,000$14,250,000$03/4($2,822,000)66.7%
D.J. ReaderLionsIDL31$11,000,000$11,375,000$01/2($2,783,000)62.9%
Alex SingletonBroncosLB32$6,000,000$6,000,000$02/3($2,697,000)76.5%
Kendall FullerDolphinsCB30$7,500,000$7,000,000$01/2($2,566,000)65.0%
Jadeveon ClowneyPanthersEDGE32$10,000,000$10,000,000$2,000,0001/2($2,219,000)59.6%
Leonard Floyd49ersEDGE33$10,000,000$8,450,000$01/2($2,195,000)59.6%
Evan EngramJaguarsTE31$13,750,000$15,750,000$02/3($2,138,000)72.0%
Alohi GilmanChargersS28$5,062,500$4,500,000$01/2($2,009,000)53.7%
Josh OliverVikingsTE28$7,000,000$8,000,000$02/3($1,671,000)72.0%
Noah FantSeahawksTE28$10,500,000$9,000,000$01/2($1,505,000)64.5%
DaQuan JonesBillsIDL34$8,000,000$7,750,000$2,250,0001/2($1,440,000)62.9%
Deebo Samuel49ersWR29$23,850,000$17,550,529$02/3($1,408,000)68.8%
Dre’Mont JonesSeahawksIDL28$17,176,667$16,510,000$02/3($1,349,000)62.5%
Shelby HarrisBrownsIDL34$4,500,000$4,500,000$01/2($1,338,000)62.9%
Tyler LockettSeahawksWR33$15,000,000$17,000,000$01/2($1,296,000)76.8%
David OnyemataFalconsIDL33$11,666,667$10,500,000$02/3($1,068,000)62.5%
Jalen ThompsonCardinalsS27$12,000,000$9,730,000$02/3($944,000)75.4%
Aaron RodgersJetsQB42$37,500,000$37,500,000$02/3($884,000)73.1%
David NjokuBrownsTE29$13,687,500$15,250,000$03/4($817,000)66.7%
Darius SlayEaglesCB34$13,000,000$16,000,000$02/3($730,000)67.5%
Alex AnzaloneLionsLB31$6,250,000$6,100,000$02/3($712,000)76.5%
Younghoe KooFalconsK31$4,850,000$4,250,000$03/5($643,000)100.0%
Donovan WilsonCowboysS30$7,000,000$7,000,000$02/3($447,000)75.4%
Garrett BradburyVikingsC30$5,250,000$5,250,000$02/3($353,000)63.0%
Josh MetellusVikingsS27$4,000,000$3,775,000$01/2($185,000)53.7%
Marshon LattimoreCommandersCB29$19,400,000$18,000,000$03/5($73,000)58.8%
Ethan PocicBrownsC30$6,000,000$6,000,000$02/3$063.0%
Foster MoreauSaintsTE28$4,078,000$4,184,000$02/3$32,00072.0%
P.J. LockeBroncosS28$3,500,000$4,000,000$01/2$89,00053.7%
Tyrann MathieuSaintsS33$6,875,000$7,250,000$1,000,0001/2$99,00053.7%
Kamren CurlRamsS26$4,500,000$4,750,000$2,000,0001/2$185,00053.7%
Jason SandersDolphinsK30$4,400,000$4,000,000$03/5$320,000100.0%
Za’Darius SmithLionsEDGE33$11,500,000$11,000,000$01/2$369,00059.6%
George FantSeahawksLT33$4,550,000$3,800,000$01/2$424,00059.5%
John Franklin-MyersBroncosEDGE29$7,500,000$8,000,000$1,000,0001/2$520,00059.6%
Kenneth MurrayTitansLB27$7,750,000$7,500,000$01/2$550,00058.8%
Arden KeyTitansEDGE29$7,000,000$7,000,000$02/3$1,025,00073.1%
Jamel DeanBuccaneersCB29$13,000,000$13,000,000$02/4$1,033,00057.5%
Kevin ByardBearsS32$7,500,000$7,000,000$01/2$1,605,00053.7%
Mark AndrewsRavensTE30$14,000,000$11,000,000$03/4$1,735,00066.7%
Kyle Juszczyk49ersFB34$4,550,000$4,600,000$01/2$1,745,00075.0%
Mitch MorseJaguarsC33$5,250,000$4,650,000$1,500,0001/2$1,769,00057.1%
Harold LandryTitansEDGE29$17,500,000$17,500,000$03/5$2,034,00051.2%
Trey PipkinsChargersRT29$7,250,000$6,750,000$02/3$2,064,00063.6%
Jauan Jennings49ersWR28$7,695,000$9,500,000$1,170,0001/2$2,107,00076.8%
Amani HookerTitansS27$10,000,000$8,390,000$02/3$2,218,00075.4%
DeMarcus WalkerBearsIDL31$7,000,000$5,250,000$02/3$2,296,00062.5%
Travis KelceChiefsTE36$17,125,000$17,250,000$01/2$2,424,00064.5%
Davante AdamsJetsWR33$28,000,000$36,250,000$03/5$2,450,00058.5%
T.J. EdwardsBearsLB29$6,500,000$5,500,000$02/3$2,494,00076.5%
Geno StoneBengalsS26$7,000,000$6,475,000$01/2$2,576,00053.7%
Grady JarrettFalconsIDL32$16,500,000$16,250,000$02/3$2,620,00062.5%
Maliek Collins49ersIDL30$11,500,000$10,000,000$01/2$2,794,00062.9%
Mike EvansBuccaneersWR32$20,500,000$21,000,000$6,000,0001/2$2,886,00076.8%
D.K. MetcalfSeahawksWR28$24,000,000$18,000,471$02/3$2,989,00068.8%
Alex CappaBengalsRG30$8,750,000$8,000,000$03/4$3,257,00082.4%
Bobby OkerekeGiantsLB29$10,000,000$9,000,000$02/4$3,589,00056.3%
Geno SmithSeahawksQB35$25,000,000$31,000,000$02/3$3,796,00073.1%
Germaine PrattBengalsLB29$6,750,000$5,600,000$02/3$3,852,00076.5%
Tremaine EdmundsBearsLB27$18,000,000$15,000,000$8,200,0002/4$4,072,00056.3%
Isaac SeumaloSteelersLG32$8,000,000$7,875,000$02/3$4,188,00062.5%
Maxx CrosbyRaidersEDGE28$23,500,000$23,118,000$02/4$4,341,00053.8%

Breakdown by team

Here are the number of players each team has on this list:

  • 6: 49ers, Panthers, Saints, Seahawks
  • 5: Bears, Bengals, Browns, Jets, Lions
  • 4: Jaguars, Titans
  • 3: Broncos, Bucs, Chargers, Colts, Eagles, Falcons, Steelers, Vikings
  • 2: Bills, Commanders, Dolphins, Raiders, Rams, Ravens
  • 1: Cardinals, Chiefs, Cowboys, Giants, Packers, Patriots, Texans

While it’s useful to see the quantity of contracts each team has to work with in this regard as a measure of how many players they may need to address contracts with, this is also incomplete without knowing how much they are budgeted to pay these players for 2025. What also may inform decisions is how much effective cap space teams have to operate with for next season.

Therefore, the graph below is a scatterplot of teams with the amount of non-guaranteed salary they have on the books toward these 100 players for 2025 versus their 2025 effective cap space. The green lines represent the median in both metrics.

The teams in the upper left quadrant have plenty of cash to burn in 2025 if they so choose, and also have low money tied up in players that did not meet starter median performance according to OTC’s valuation metric. Some of these teams might still make skill based cuts, but may also not have a burning need to do so.

The teams in the lower left quadrant do not have much cap wiggle room but also have very few contracts that are in serious question. Several of those teams (Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, Texans) are in Super Bowl contention, while teams like the Cowboys and Dolphins were undone by injury. Regardless of how their seasons end, most of these teams would be expected to go all in on their rosters for 2025.

Teams in the top right quadrant have plenty to spend, but could also stand to turn over a few high expenditure spots on their roster. Never rule out any of these teams making skill based cuts regardless of their current finances, but the pressure to make those cuts is lower.

The teams in the lower right quadrant are the ones to focus on. They have tighter cap situations, but could remedy that quickly with renegotiations of contracts–either negatively via cutting players or demanding pay cuts from them, or in a mildly positive manner by restructuring their salaries. It is this cluster where the lion’s share of action will likely take place.

The Jets and Seahawks break the X axis by each having over $90 million in such salary at play. For the Jets, who have fired their GM and head coach and are currently looking to find their replacements, assumptions are high that there will be major roster turnover on this team, with the former Packers trio of Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and Allen Lazard leading the way of most of the cash due on this list.

The Seahawks face a much different situation: currently about $30 million over the salary cap, but also coming off a 10-7 season in which they just missed the playoffs. Players low on this list, certainly Geno Smith and DK Metcalf, seem very unlikely to be cut, and could instead be restructure candidates to defer cap dollar charges. Metcalf already has several void years on his contract to use for this purpose–Smith would need to agree to add the same. On the other hand, players such as Dre’Mont Jones or Noah Fant might not get as much of a benefit of the doubt. A very difficult decision may also need to come for Tyler Lockett, who is highly respected as the longest tenured Seahawk.

The Falcons will be another good team to watch, especially if they decide to move on from Kirk Cousins and take on a $27.5 million dead cash hit. Their restructure potential is high, thus that alone should not aggravate needed cuts, but the fate of the contracts for David Onyemata, Younghoe Koo, and long time Falcon Grady Jarrett should be monitored.

The Eagles and Browns, as is their practice, have already done their work preemptively to defer as many cap dollars as they can on their contracts. Thus, any cuts or renegotiations they make will be minimized in that regard. Philadelphia does not need to make any immediate changes to their contracts due to being in cap compliance, but that is not the case for the Browns, who will likely get there by restructuring Deshaun Watson’s salary once again after getting him to agree to add more void years for maximal deferral.

Finally, although the Saints, as usual, have plenty of work to do, their contracts are structured in a manner in which cutting most players would be impractical. They are likely to, and indeed may have to, continue to restructure contracts and run it back with a similar roster, as if they were more comparable to teams in the lower left quadrant.