After seeing reasonably good results from this exercise last season, let’s take a look once again at a list of players who could see their contracts terminated or negatively altered in the leadup to the start of the next league year. Looking at the list of pending unrestricted free agents coming from contracts that are expiring is regularly a useful starting point, but as we all know, more players will become available free agents to sign by being cut from their previous teams.
This list is an attempt to add some visibility on which players could be cut in the coming months. The metrics used are OTC’s estimation of contract fate, and the regular season OTC Valuation metric from 2024 when compared to the league median, to try to forecast a more accurate picture.
As always, it is stressed that most players on this list will likely not be cut. There are many mitigating factors as to why players show up on this list. One of course is injury, particularly to players who missed most of the season–although it can also be an aggravating factor if the team determines that injury has made the player unreliable on his contract. Quality of roster depth at the player’s position is another. Teams are also always willing and able to break the trends of contract fate and keep players they think will be helpful for next season’s roster. Common sense needs to be applied as to which players on this list are unlikely to be cut, even if it’s informative to see them on the list.
With that, this list is built from the players who:
- Are due a minimum of $3.75 million in cash for 2024.
- Have a negative contract fate greater than 50%.
- Are within the top 100 in players with the worst OTC valuation above median starter, which is defined in OTC’s explainer of the valuation diamond.
| # | Name | Team | Position | Age | APY | 2025 Cash Due | 2025 Guaranteed Salary | Seasons Completed/ Contract Length | 2024 OTC Valuation Above Starter Median | Odds Of Negative Fate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyrod Taylor | Jets | QB | 36 | $6,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $2,500,000 | 1/2 | ($29,739,000) | 54.2% |
| 2 | Gardner Minshew | Raiders | QB | 29 | $12,500,000 | $12,500,000 | $3,160,000 | 1/2 | ($22,315,000) | 54.2% |
| 3 | Samson Ebukam | Colts | EDGE | 30 | $8,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($9,313,000) | 73.1% |
| 4 | Kalif Raymond | Lions | WR | 31 | $5,250,000 | $4,900,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($9,171,000) | 76.8% |
| 5 | Josh Reynolds | Jaguars | WR | 30 | $4,500,000 | $4,500,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($9,113,000) | 76.8% |
| 6 | Christian Kirk | Jaguars | WR | 29 | $18,000,000 | $16,500,000 | $0 | 3/4 | ($8,086,000) | 78.7% |
| 7 | Denico Autry | Texans | EDGE | 35 | $10,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($8,020,000) | 59.6% |
| 8 | Tyquan Lewis | Colts | EDGE | 30 | $6,000,000 | $4,790,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($7,811,000) | 59.6% |
| 9 | Yetur Gross-Matos | 49ers | EDGE | 27 | $9,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($7,584,000) | 59.6% |
| 10 | Ogbonnia Okoronkwo | Browns | EDGE | 30 | $6,333,333 | $6,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($7,475,000) | 73.1% |
| 11 | D.J. Wonnum | Panthers | EDGE | 28 | $6,250,000 | $7,500,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($6,996,000) | 59.6% |
| 12 | Sam Hubbard | Bengals | EDGE | 30 | $10,000,000 | $9,600,000 | $0 | 3/4 | ($6,355,000) | 69.2% |
| 13 | Tyler Higbee | Rams | TE | 32 | $8,500,000 | $7,500,000 | $2,000,000 | 1/2 | ($6,349,000) | 64.5% |
| 14 | Miles Sanders | Panthers | RB | 28 | $6,350,000 | $6,700,000 | $0 | 2/4 | ($6,165,000) | 62.5% |
| 15 | Joey Bosa | Chargers | EDGE | 30 | $20,180,000 | $25,360,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($5,970,000) | 59.6% |
| 16 | Adam Thielen | Panthers | WR | 35 | $8,333,333 | $6,750,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($5,949,000) | 68.8% |
| 17 | Gerald Everett | Bears | TE | 31 | $6,000,000 | $5,500,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($5,910,000) | 64.5% |
| 18 | Cameron Jordan | Saints | EDGE | 36 | $13,250,000 | $12,500,000 | $1,500,000 | 1/2 | ($5,874,000) | 59.6% |
| 19 | Raekwon Davis | Colts | IDL | 28 | $7,000,000 | $6,490,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($5,848,000) | 62.9% |
| 20 | Sheldon Rankins | Bengals | IDL | 31 | $12,250,000 | $10,500,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($5,763,000) | 62.9% |
| 21 | Taysom Hill | Saints | TE | 35 | $10,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $0 | 3/4 | ($5,574,000) | 66.7% |
| 22 | A.J. Epenesa | Bills | EDGE | 27 | $6,000,000 | $6,200,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($5,063,000) | 59.6% |
| 23 | Allen Lazard | Jets | WR | 30 | $11,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $0 | 2/4 | ($4,877,000) | 61.7% |
| 24 | James Bradberry | Eagles | CB | 32 | $12,666,667 | $18,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($4,756,000) | 67.5% |
| 25 | Shy Tuttle | Panthers | IDL | 30 | $6,500,000 | $6,500,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($4,597,000) | 62.5% |
| 26 | Jonathan Allen | Commanders | IDL | 30 | $18,000,000 | $17,000,000 | $0 | 3/4 | ($4,124,000) | 56.4% |
| 27 | Dane Jackson | Panthers | CB | 29 | $4,250,000 | $4,350,000 | $1,000,000 | 1/2 | ($4,070,000) | 65.0% |
| 28 | Larry Ogunjobi | Steelers | IDL | 31 | $9,583,333 | $7,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($3,933,000) | 62.5% |
| 29 | Khalen Saunders | Saints | IDL | 29 | $4,100,000 | $4,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($3,866,000) | 62.5% |
| 30 | Cole Holcomb | Steelers | LB | 29 | $6,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($3,821,000) | 76.5% |
| 31 | Ja’Whaun Bentley | Patriots | LB | 29 | $6,750,000 | $5,500,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($3,594,000) | 58.8% |
| 32 | Marcus Williams | Ravens | S | 29 | $14,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $0 | 3/5 | ($3,539,000) | 63.2% |
| 33 | Juan Thornhill | Browns | S | 30 | $7,000,000 | $7,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($3,537,000) | 75.4% |
| 34 | Nathan Shepherd | Saints | IDL | 32 | $5,000,000 | $5,320,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($3,334,000) | 62.5% |
| 35 | C.J. Mosley | Jets | LB | 33 | $8,625,000 | $8,250,000 | $4,250,000 | 1/2 | ($3,095,000) | 58.8% |
| 36 | Amik Robertson | Lions | CB | 27 | $4,625,000 | $4,750,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($2,998,000) | 65.0% |
| 37 | Jordan Whitehead | Buccaneers | S | 28 | $4,500,000 | $4,500,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($2,990,000) | 53.7% |
| 38 | Jaire Alexander | Packers | CB | 28 | $21,000,000 | $17,500,000 | $0 | 2/4 | ($2,828,000) | 57.5% |
| 39 | Dallas Goedert | Eagles | TE | 30 | $14,250,000 | $14,250,000 | $0 | 3/4 | ($2,822,000) | 66.7% |
| 40 | D.J. Reader | Lions | IDL | 31 | $11,000,000 | $11,375,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($2,783,000) | 62.9% |
| 41 | Alex Singleton | Broncos | LB | 32 | $6,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($2,697,000) | 76.5% |
| 42 | Kendall Fuller | Dolphins | CB | 30 | $7,500,000 | $7,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($2,566,000) | 65.0% |
| 43 | Jadeveon Clowney | Panthers | EDGE | 32 | $10,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $2,000,000 | 1/2 | ($2,219,000) | 59.6% |
| 44 | Leonard Floyd | 49ers | EDGE | 33 | $10,000,000 | $8,450,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($2,195,000) | 59.6% |
| 45 | Evan Engram | Jaguars | TE | 31 | $13,750,000 | $15,750,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($2,138,000) | 72.0% |
| 46 | Alohi Gilman | Chargers | S | 28 | $5,062,500 | $4,500,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($2,009,000) | 53.7% |
| 47 | Josh Oliver | Vikings | TE | 28 | $7,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($1,671,000) | 72.0% |
| 48 | Noah Fant | Seahawks | TE | 28 | $10,500,000 | $9,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($1,505,000) | 64.5% |
| 49 | DaQuan Jones | Bills | IDL | 34 | $8,000,000 | $7,750,000 | $2,250,000 | 1/2 | ($1,440,000) | 62.9% |
| 50 | Deebo Samuel | 49ers | WR | 29 | $23,850,000 | $17,550,529 | $0 | 2/3 | ($1,408,000) | 68.8% |
| 51 | Dre’Mont Jones | Seahawks | IDL | 28 | $17,176,667 | $16,510,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($1,349,000) | 62.5% |
| 52 | Shelby Harris | Browns | IDL | 34 | $4,500,000 | $4,500,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($1,338,000) | 62.9% |
| 53 | Tyler Lockett | Seahawks | WR | 33 | $15,000,000 | $17,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($1,296,000) | 76.8% |
| 54 | David Onyemata | Falcons | IDL | 33 | $11,666,667 | $10,500,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($1,068,000) | 62.5% |
| 55 | Jalen Thompson | Cardinals | S | 27 | $12,000,000 | $9,730,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($944,000) | 75.4% |
| 56 | Aaron Rodgers | Jets | QB | 42 | $37,500,000 | $37,500,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($884,000) | 73.1% |
| 57 | David Njoku | Browns | TE | 29 | $13,687,500 | $15,250,000 | $0 | 3/4 | ($817,000) | 66.7% |
| 58 | Darius Slay | Eagles | CB | 34 | $13,000,000 | $16,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($730,000) | 67.5% |
| 59 | Alex Anzalone | Lions | LB | 31 | $6,250,000 | $6,100,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($712,000) | 76.5% |
| 60 | Younghoe Koo | Falcons | K | 31 | $4,850,000 | $4,250,000 | $0 | 3/5 | ($643,000) | 100.0% |
| 61 | Donovan Wilson | Cowboys | S | 30 | $7,000,000 | $7,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($447,000) | 75.4% |
| 62 | Garrett Bradbury | Vikings | C | 30 | $5,250,000 | $5,250,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($353,000) | 63.0% |
| 63 | Josh Metellus | Vikings | S | 27 | $4,000,000 | $3,775,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($185,000) | 53.7% |
| 64 | Marshon Lattimore | Commanders | CB | 29 | $19,400,000 | $18,000,000 | $0 | 3/5 | ($73,000) | 58.8% |
| 65 | Ethan Pocic | Browns | C | 30 | $6,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $0 | 63.0% |
| 66 | Foster Moreau | Saints | TE | 28 | $4,078,000 | $4,184,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $32,000 | 72.0% |
| 67 | P.J. Locke | Broncos | S | 28 | $3,500,000 | $4,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $89,000 | 53.7% |
| 68 | Tyrann Mathieu | Saints | S | 33 | $6,875,000 | $7,250,000 | $1,000,000 | 1/2 | $99,000 | 53.7% |
| 69 | Kamren Curl | Rams | S | 26 | $4,500,000 | $4,750,000 | $2,000,000 | 1/2 | $185,000 | 53.7% |
| 70 | Jason Sanders | Dolphins | K | 30 | $4,400,000 | $4,000,000 | $0 | 3/5 | $320,000 | 100.0% |
| 71 | Za’Darius Smith | Lions | EDGE | 33 | $11,500,000 | $11,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $369,000 | 59.6% |
| 72 | George Fant | Seahawks | LT | 33 | $4,550,000 | $3,800,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $424,000 | 59.5% |
| 73 | John Franklin-Myers | Broncos | EDGE | 29 | $7,500,000 | $8,000,000 | $1,000,000 | 1/2 | $520,000 | 59.6% |
| 74 | Kenneth Murray | Titans | LB | 27 | $7,750,000 | $7,500,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $550,000 | 58.8% |
| 75 | Arden Key | Titans | EDGE | 29 | $7,000,000 | $7,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $1,025,000 | 73.1% |
| 76 | Jamel Dean | Buccaneers | CB | 29 | $13,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $0 | 2/4 | $1,033,000 | 57.5% |
| 77 | Kevin Byard | Bears | S | 32 | $7,500,000 | $7,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $1,605,000 | 53.7% |
| 78 | Mark Andrews | Ravens | TE | 30 | $14,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $0 | 3/4 | $1,735,000 | 66.7% |
| 79 | Kyle Juszczyk | 49ers | FB | 34 | $4,550,000 | $4,600,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $1,745,000 | 75.0% |
| 80 | Mitch Morse | Jaguars | C | 33 | $5,250,000 | $4,650,000 | $1,500,000 | 1/2 | $1,769,000 | 57.1% |
| 81 | Harold Landry | Titans | EDGE | 29 | $17,500,000 | $17,500,000 | $0 | 3/5 | $2,034,000 | 51.2% |
| 82 | Trey Pipkins | Chargers | RT | 29 | $7,250,000 | $6,750,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $2,064,000 | 63.6% |
| 83 | Jauan Jennings | 49ers | WR | 28 | $7,695,000 | $9,500,000 | $1,170,000 | 1/2 | $2,107,000 | 76.8% |
| 84 | Amani Hooker | Titans | S | 27 | $10,000,000 | $8,390,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $2,218,000 | 75.4% |
| 85 | DeMarcus Walker | Bears | IDL | 31 | $7,000,000 | $5,250,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $2,296,000 | 62.5% |
| 86 | Travis Kelce | Chiefs | TE | 36 | $17,125,000 | $17,250,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $2,424,000 | 64.5% |
| 87 | Davante Adams | Jets | WR | 33 | $28,000,000 | $36,250,000 | $0 | 3/5 | $2,450,000 | 58.5% |
| 88 | T.J. Edwards | Bears | LB | 29 | $6,500,000 | $5,500,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $2,494,000 | 76.5% |
| 89 | Geno Stone | Bengals | S | 26 | $7,000,000 | $6,475,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $2,576,000 | 53.7% |
| 90 | Grady Jarrett | Falcons | IDL | 32 | $16,500,000 | $16,250,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $2,620,000 | 62.5% |
| 91 | Maliek Collins | 49ers | IDL | 30 | $11,500,000 | $10,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $2,794,000 | 62.9% |
| 92 | Mike Evans | Buccaneers | WR | 32 | $20,500,000 | $21,000,000 | $6,000,000 | 1/2 | $2,886,000 | 76.8% |
| 93 | D.K. Metcalf | Seahawks | WR | 28 | $24,000,000 | $18,000,471 | $0 | 2/3 | $2,989,000 | 68.8% |
| 94 | Alex Cappa | Bengals | RG | 30 | $8,750,000 | $8,000,000 | $0 | 3/4 | $3,257,000 | 82.4% |
| 95 | Bobby Okereke | Giants | LB | 29 | $10,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $0 | 2/4 | $3,589,000 | 56.3% |
| 96 | Geno Smith | Seahawks | QB | 35 | $25,000,000 | $31,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $3,796,000 | 73.1% |
| 97 | Germaine Pratt | Bengals | LB | 29 | $6,750,000 | $5,600,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $3,852,000 | 76.5% |
| 98 | Tremaine Edmunds | Bears | LB | 27 | $18,000,000 | $15,000,000 | $8,200,000 | 2/4 | $4,072,000 | 56.3% |
| 99 | Isaac Seumalo | Steelers | LG | 32 | $8,000,000 | $7,875,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $4,188,000 | 62.5% |
| 100 | Maxx Crosby | Raiders | EDGE | 28 | $23,500,000 | $23,118,000 | $0 | 2/4 | $4,341,000 | 53.8% |
Breakdown by team
Here are the number of players each team has on this list:
- 6: 49ers, Panthers, Saints, Seahawks
- 5: Bears, Bengals, Browns, Jets, Lions
- 4: Jaguars, Titans
- 3: Broncos, Bucs, Chargers, Colts, Eagles, Falcons, Steelers, Vikings
- 2: Bills, Commanders, Dolphins, Raiders, Rams, Ravens
- 1: Cardinals, Chiefs, Cowboys, Giants, Packers, Patriots, Texans
While it’s useful to see the quantity of contracts each team has to work with in this regard as a measure of how many players they may need to address contracts with, this is also incomplete without knowing how much they are budgeted to pay these players for 2025. What also may inform decisions is how much effective cap space teams have to operate with for next season.
Therefore, the graph below is a scatterplot of teams with the amount of non-guaranteed salary they have on the books toward these 100 players for 2025 versus their 2025 effective cap space. The green lines represent the median in both metrics.
The teams in the upper left quadrant have plenty of cash to burn in 2025 if they so choose, and also have low money tied up in players that did not meet starter median performance according to OTC’s valuation metric. Some of these teams might still make skill based cuts, but may also not have a burning need to do so.
The teams in the lower left quadrant do not have much cap wiggle room but also have very few contracts that are in serious question. Several of those teams (Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, Texans) are in Super Bowl contention, while teams like the Cowboys and Dolphins were undone by injury. Regardless of how their seasons end, most of these teams would be expected to go all in on their rosters for 2025.
Teams in the top right quadrant have plenty to spend, but could also stand to turn over a few high expenditure spots on their roster. Never rule out any of these teams making skill based cuts regardless of their current finances, but the pressure to make those cuts is lower.
The teams in the lower right quadrant are the ones to focus on. They have tighter cap situations, but could remedy that quickly with renegotiations of contracts–either negatively via cutting players or demanding pay cuts from them, or in a mildly positive manner by restructuring their salaries. It is this cluster where the lion’s share of action will likely take place.
The Jets and Seahawks break the X axis by each having over $90 million in such salary at play. For the Jets, who have fired their GM and head coach and are currently looking to find their replacements, assumptions are high that there will be major roster turnover on this team, with the former Packers trio of Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and Allen Lazard leading the way of most of the cash due on this list.
The Seahawks face a much different situation: currently about $30 million over the salary cap, but also coming off a 10-7 season in which they just missed the playoffs. Players low on this list, certainly Geno Smith and DK Metcalf, seem very unlikely to be cut, and could instead be restructure candidates to defer cap dollar charges. Metcalf already has several void years on his contract to use for this purpose–Smith would need to agree to add the same. On the other hand, players such as Dre’Mont Jones or Noah Fant might not get as much of a benefit of the doubt. A very difficult decision may also need to come for Tyler Lockett, who is highly respected as the longest tenured Seahawk.
The Falcons will be another good team to watch, especially if they decide to move on from Kirk Cousins and take on a $27.5 million dead cash hit. Their restructure potential is high, thus that alone should not aggravate needed cuts, but the fate of the contracts for David Onyemata, Younghoe Koo, and long time Falcon Grady Jarrett should be monitored.
The Eagles and Browns, as is their practice, have already done their work preemptively to defer as many cap dollars as they can on their contracts. Thus, any cuts or renegotiations they make will be minimized in that regard. Philadelphia does not need to make any immediate changes to their contracts due to being in cap compliance, but that is not the case for the Browns, who will likely get there by restructuring Deshaun Watson’s salary once again after getting him to agree to add more void years for maximal deferral.
Finally, although the Saints, as usual, have plenty of work to do, their contracts are structured in a manner in which cutting most players would be impractical. They are likely to, and indeed may have to, continue to restructure contracts and run it back with a similar roster, as if they were more comparable to teams in the lower left quadrant.