2023 NFL Team Spending Estimates

With free agency approaching I started getting some questions about spending requirements this year. For those unfamiliar with the new CBA, the NFL requires teams to spend 90% of the salary cap each year within specific three or four year periods. One of those periods covers spending from 2021 to 2023, so this a year where some teams may be required to spend up. Give or take a few dollars the requirement would be $554 million in cash over those three seasons.

I went back and estimated cash spending for each team over the 2021 and 2022 seasons and then added in the 2023 numbers. Here is the breakdown:

Team2021-20222023 CurrentTotal
Browns$514,209,359$230,545,599$744,754,958
Bills$474,838,660$202,445,532$677,284,192
Jaguars$467,363,052$203,708,050$671,071,102
Buccaneers$477,599,332$188,481,144$666,080,476
Dolphins$449,967,394$202,862,138$652,829,532
Jets$471,346,163$179,602,429$650,948,592
Broncos$443,654,678$199,142,630$642,797,308
Chargers$438,523,719$197,477,477$636,001,196
Rams$424,845,601$210,956,481$635,802,082
Packers$423,082,895$211,551,514$634,634,409
Colts$441,308,498$192,550,695$633,859,193
Titans$446,685,063$183,006,182$629,691,245
49ers$453,621,048$169,682,886$623,303,934
Cardinals$418,681,775$189,224,616$607,906,391
Commanders$426,151,055$173,054,719$599,205,774
Vikings$408,208,263$184,789,562$592,997,825
Saints$414,020,694$177,994,865$592,015,559
Ravens$423,611,134$165,293,484$588,904,618
Eagles$399,130,975$187,503,560$586,634,535
Seahawks$438,259,573$143,060,115$581,319,688
Patriots$443,182,479$135,640,116$578,822,595
Chiefs$404,481,508$173,146,145$577,627,653
Lions$423,137,529$151,322,916$574,460,445
Steelers$386,001,216$175,130,536$561,131,752
Panthers$396,911,402$161,860,793$558,772,195
Raiders$422,543,100$132,899,139$555,442,239
Bengals$388,133,485$151,980,933$540,114,418
Texans$394,201,938$139,670,693$533,872,631
Giants$399,418,796$128,847,848$528,266,644
Cowboys$285,733,630$167,244,925$452,978,555
Falcons$295,925,440$126,486,200$422,411,640
Bears$320,113,931$94,699,634$414,813,565

Most of the teams in the league are well above the minimum threshold. Really there are only three teams that need to spend up this year- the Bears, Falcons, and Cowboys. All three of these teams are this low because the spending valuations treat cash commitments made in February/early March as belonging to a prior league year so teams that do a lot of restructures for cap purposes could lose money to a prior valuation period, which is what I believe happened to these three teams. That rule also means that our spending period really doesn’t end in January of 2024 either. It means that teams have until the start of free agency in 2024 to make the numbers work. So that kind of takes Dallas out as a must spend in free agency team because they have a Prescott salary cap situation to work with and Micah Parsons possibly getting extended. So realistically we are looking at the Bears and Falcons having to spend a bit in free agency to hit their numbers. Both will also be helped by the draft (the 1st pick will earn around $26.7M).

Teams that will likely dip below the number will also include the Giants and Panthers and possibly the Lions simply due to cuts. None should be so far below that they cant easily comply with just their draft picks.

The fact that so many teams are so far over shows just how meaningless that 90% number is. I discussed that years ago prior to the new CBA that the spending requirements should be at least 100% if not more. A 1 to 1 cash to cap ratio would require $615.5 million in spending. That would at least come close to splitting the league in half with 13 teams already on track to compliance. This is something that needs to grow much more the next time around.

Another way we can look at spending is to look at historical trends for teams. While many teams will see their budget fluctuate year over year there is usually more consistency in three year windows. I looked back at team’s cash spending trends and determined what is the average three year spend relative to the salary cap. Since we have good estimates of what the team’s spent in 21 and 22 already we can get an idea of what teams may have budgeted for the year if they follow typical trends.

TeamAvg. 3Y SpendProj. BudgetCurrent PayrollAmount to Spend
Bears102.0%$298,154,374$94,699,634$203,454,740
Falcons101.1%$316,112,189$126,486,200$189,625,989
Texans109.7%$283,062,413$139,670,693$143,391,720
Bengals104.2%$267,631,695$151,980,933$115,650,762
49ers116.5%$277,401,016$169,682,886$107,718,130
Raiders107.1%$237,382,529$132,899,139$104,483,390
Giants100.3%$227,601,156$128,847,848$98,753,308
Vikings108.4%$267,345,774$184,789,562$82,556,212
Eagles113.8%$270,035,162$187,503,560$82,531,602
Cowboys111.0%$243,178,654$167,244,925$75,933,729
Seahawks102.7%$209,897,425$143,060,115$66,837,310
Lions102.4%$216,289,093$151,322,916$64,966,177
Saints114.6%$237,448,221$177,994,865$59,453,356
Titans108.9%$238,765,607$183,006,182$55,759,425
Cardinals105.8%$238,188,951$189,224,616$48,964,335
Patriots98.5%$181,964,347$135,640,116$46,324,231
Ravens103.2%$211,243,728$165,293,484$45,950,244
Panthers99.9%$207,785,362$161,860,793$45,924,569
Steelers99.6%$218,005,373$175,130,536$42,874,837
Commanders102.9%$212,344,592$173,054,719$39,289,873
Chiefs98.6%$208,030,485$173,146,145$34,884,340
Colts104.7%$219,628,071$192,550,695$27,077,376
Chargers103.8%$217,607,373$197,477,477$20,129,896
Buccaneers115.1%$207,709,431$188,481,144$19,228,287
Packers108.9%$220,758,719$211,551,514$9,207,205
Broncos101.7%$200,927,808$199,142,630$1,785,178
Rams108.8%$208,247,090$210,956,481($2,709,391)
Dolphins102.5%$197,652,361$202,862,138($5,209,777)
Jets102.2%$173,162,913$179,602,429($6,439,516)
Bills107.1%$179,011,559$202,445,532($23,433,973)
Jaguars102.3%$176,398,595$203,708,050($27,309,455)
Browns112.4%$199,235,908$230,545,599($31,309,691)

While some teams will be impacted by salary cap constraints this should give us a much better idea of teams that will spend a lot just to meet their historical norms. Not surprisingly the Bears, Falcons, and Texans are at the top of the list. All three have purged their rosters due to the salary cap and changes at the top of the organization and should have a large war chest of savings that could be spent this year.

The Bengals come in at number 4, but I would expect much of that money to be put aside for Joe Burrow. If he is not extended this year then it will simply be used in 2024 to sign him. The 49ers and Raiders are both in an interesting spot. Both need a QB and both probably have the budget to pull off a big move though the 49ers will potentially be more hampered by the cap.

One of the most intriguing teams is the Ravens. They normally would only have an added $46M to spend and that alone is the going to be the cost for Lamar Jackson on a tag and way under what it would cost for an extension. So they are likely going to blow past their normal budget this year but I would wonder how much more they will really add to the team unless they can just have a massive spending year.

The Chiefs, who traditionally are among the lowest spenders in the NFL, don’t look to be in a position to spend much this year though they will get some relief if they cut Frank Clark. My gut feeling is they will focus on the draft anyway. The Chargers are a team that needs to fill some voids and is already close to their usual spending patterns. They have a QB extension on the horizon as well and that could all play a factor in some cuts this year. The Packers are already around their limit depending on what they do with Rodgers though the cap is an issue there. There is little to read into the Broncos since it is a new ownership group.

After that we get into the category of teams that may need to shed payroll. The Rams are slightly over their normal level and don’t have much flexibility with cuts. Trading players even if the cap ends up being a loss might make some sense. Miami had their big year last season so they are probably going to be less active this year unless desperation kicks in.

The Jets are already over their normal spending pattern but are interested in spending nearly $60M on Aaron Rodgers. They can free up some money with cuts but this is going to be a year where they go over budget if they do bring in an expensive QB.

The Bills, Jaguars, and Browns all look like teams that spent a lot in 2021 and 2022 with the expectation to cut back in 2023. I do believe the Bills will fit that mold this year and you will see more of a purge of the roster with a focus on finding low cost talent rather than the shortsighted Von Miller type signings. Jacksonville and Cleveland are interesting. Both have owners that show a lot of variance in spending and both need to improve from last season. The Browns may have a built in expectation for improvement with Deshaun Watson potentially going back to being a good QB. Jacksonville is a team that probably needs more holes filled and, like the Jets, could exceed their norms this year and put more brakes on in 2024.