Not that the first Monday after the draft has passed, it’s time take a look at where OTC’s projection for the 2022 compensatory picks stand. If you have any questions about how this list is generated, please take a look at the cancellation charts for all 32 teams here, and also refer to OTC’s compensatory formula page as a reference for where certain contracts are ranked.
Team | Rd | Compensated Departure |
---|---|---|
PIT | 3 | Bud Dupree |
DET | 3 | Kenny Golladay |
GB | 4 | Corey Linsley |
CIN | 4 | Carl Lawson |
BAL | 4 | Matt Judon |
BAL | 4 | Yannick Ngakoue |
NO | 4 | Trey Hendrickson |
TEN | 4 | Jonnu Smith |
LAR | 4 | John Johnson |
DAL | 4 | Andy Dalton |
ARI | 5 | Patrick Peterson |
DET | 5 | Marvin Jones |
PIT | 5 | Matt Feiler |
IND | 5 | Denico Autry |
MIA | 5 | Davon Godchaux |
LAR | 6 | Samson Ebukam |
LAR | 6 | Gerald Everett |
LAR | 6 | Troy Hill |
NO | 6 | Sheldon Rankins |
LAC | 6 | Tyrod Taylor |
LAC | 6 | Dan Feeney |
LV | 6 | Takkarist McKinley |
DET | 6 | Jamal Agnew |
GB | 6 | Jamaal Williams |
LAC | 6 | Sam Tevi |
SF | 7 | Solomon Thomas |
SF | 7 | Kerry Hyder |
IND | 7 | Anthony Walker Jr. |
LAC | 7 | Denzel Perryman |
ARI | 7 | Angelo Blackson |
ARI | 7 | Dan Arnold |
TB | 7 | Joe Haeg |
Over 32-pick limit; not awarded | ||
KC | 7 | Tanoh Kpassagnon |
SF | 7 | C.J. Beathard |
What stands out as of now is just how few 3rd round compensatory picks are on the board. This was an offseason, perhaps aggravated by the fall in the salary cap, that saw very few players leave for other teams on high valued contracts. As of now, only two 3rd rounders are projected to be awarded: to the Steelers for Bud Dupree going to the Titans, and to the Lions for Kenny Golladay going to the Giants.
However, for those who are hoping for teams with 4th rounders to see those picks upgraded to 3rd rounders, that hope is founded, with two possibilities on how it could be fulfilled. One is if the formula considers fewer leaguewide players than last year’s number of approximately 1,944, which is what the 2022 projection is currently using. That precise number will be unknowable until the conclusion of the regular season. The other is if the players in question beat their estimated snap count percentages, an estimation of which the projection uses a snap count average over the past four seasons. The six players in particular that we should keep an eye on in this regard are as follows, all of whose contracts are just below the 3rd/4th round cutoff:
Player | Former Team | 4 Year Snap % Average |
William Jackson III | Bengals | 79.1% |
Corey Linsley | Packers | 89.9% |
Carl Lawson | Bengals | 43.2% |
Matt Judon | Ravens | 67.8% |
Yannick Ngakoue | Ravens | 71.4% |
Trey Hendrickson | Saints | 32.8% |
An important fact that was confirmed in the last comp pick release is that teams are no longer allowed to cut compensatory free agents they signed and get relief from those CFAs counting against them in the formula. This means that there is only one way remaining for teams to try to work the compensatory formula in their favor, and that would be to limit the amount of snaps of certain CFAs to ensure that they don’t adversely affect their cancellation chart.
One such case I am looking at in this regard involves the Steelers signing Joe Haeg to a $2.3 million APY contract. As it stands right now, this signing cancels out a 6th round comp pick for the departure of Mike Hilton. However, this also assumes that Haeg will sustain his four year snap average of 36.7%. If Haeg ends up just being a backup that sees little to no action in Pittsburgh, that might be enough to nudge his contract out of qualifying as a CFA and reopen up that 6th rounder.
Another one that is more complicated involves the bottom of New Orleans’s cancellation chart. They saw special teamer Justin Hardee leave for the Jets for $2.25 million APY, while signing disappointing 2nd round edge rusher Tanoh Kpassagnon away from the Chiefs for the same APY. Both contracts are on the cusp of qualifying the players as compensatory free agents, and nothing would change for the Saints if both contracts don’t qualify. But if Hardee’s contract does not qualify while Kpassagnon’s does, the Saints would lose a 6th rounder for the departure of Sheldon Rankins. This is more likely to happen than the other way around, as Hardee, as a special teamer, is unlikely to get a snap count boost in the formula. However, given that the Saints exercised the fifth year option on Marcus Davenport’s contract, and also used their 2021 first round pick on Payton Turner, there’s a chance that Kpassagnon may not see enough action to allow his contract to qualify. If the Saints feel that Davenport and Turner are better edge rush options than Kpassagnon, it might behoove them to play Kpassagnon as little as possible in order to preserve that 6th round comp pick.
Meanwhile, a few teams may have to hope that teams play their former players as much as possible:
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