2016 Cap Analytics: Kansas City Chiefs

Expected Contract OutcomesExpected Contract Value 2.0 utilizes an algorithm based on a player’s contract characteristics, age, position and 2015 performance to forecast probabilities as to the outcomes of contract termination decisions.   The lower the Expected Outcome, the more likely the player’s contract will be terminated in 2016.  A pay cut is treated as a termination.  We have applied ECV 2.0 to all contracts scheduled to count $2 million or more against the 2016 salary cap with the exception of exercised 5th year rookie options.  Expected Savings is the calculated by multiplying the probability a player will be released by the cap savings realized by the team upon such release.

Player Position Expected Outcome Expected Savings
Marcus Peters DB 100.0% ($57)
Travis Kelce REC 99.8% ($18,922)
Jeremy Maclin REC 99.3% ($46,565)
Justin Houston F7 99.0% ($86,320)
Alex Smith QB 98.8% ($85,200)
Allen Bailey F7 97.6% ($18,743)
Dee Ford F7 96.8% ($33,922)
Ron Parker DB 95.7% ($17,200)
Eric Fisher OL 94.5% $0
Josh Mauga F7 88.2% $141,360
Paul Fanaika OL 74.7% $244,373
Dustin Colquitt KP 63.4% $1,043,955
Ben Grubbs OL 54.8% $496,870
Anthony Sherman RB 50.2% $498,500
Jamaal Charles RB 48.3% $2,746,563
Expected Change in Cap Room +$4,864,692


True Cap SpaceRealizable Cap Space depicts the total amount of salary cap space potentially at the team’s disposal in 2016, and True Cap Space makes further adjustments to take into consideration amounts that are accounted for in practical terms.  Most True Cap Space will be used on players currently under contract as a result of the team choosing to not release them.

True Cap Space (2016)
Adjusted Salary Cap $152,847,838
Prorated Signing Bonus Amounts ($26,752,,320)
Realizable Cap Space $126,095,518
Fully Guaranteed Salary ($40,179,757)
Minimum Salary Cap Holds ($20,250,000)
True Cap Space $65,665,761
League Rank 31st

Commitment Index – Commitment Index identifies the degree to which a team has “mortgaged its future” by measuring its net future salary cap commitments as a percentage of the average net future salary cap commitments of all teams.  A Commitment Index Score of 100% is average, and a negative Commitment Index Score indicates that the team has more current salary cap space than future salary cap commitments.  The Commitment Index Score of every team in the league changes to at least some degree with every transaction executed by any team in the league, so Commitment Index Score is measured as of a specific point in time (in this case, January 11, 2016). 

Commitment Index (2017+)
Prorated Signing Bonus Amounts $46,638,972
Fully Guaranteed Salary $3,048,220
Current Cap Space ($31,621,449)
Net Commitment $21,065,743
Commitment Index Score 122%
League Rank (1st = Most Committed) 14TH