I had a little rebound with last week’s picks, going 11-3 on my picks and 8-6 when picking against the spread. My yearly record is now 71-34 and 50-51-4. All this week’s games are now posted after the jump.
PATRIOTS (-8.5) over Dolphins– One of the first real exciting Thursday night matchups with Miami now firing on all cylinders since changing coaches. This is a measuring stick game for Miami who beat up on two of the worst teams in the NFL during their two game winning streak, but those were games they probably would have lost a few weeks ago. There will be no doubt about them being legit if they hang around in this game. Patriots had a tough game against the Jets where New England dominated the 4th quarter and overcame some mistakes that made the game much closer than it should have been. I doubt the Pats will be hung over and I dont think thats a concern with that team. I think this will be close through three quarters but like last week the Patriots execution down the stretch and coaching advatage will turn it into a pretty big win. Patriots 34 Dolphins 23
CHIEFS (-3.5) over Lions- Not a fan of either team right now but the Chiefs have played better overall and been hit more with the schedule than the Lion who are just bad. Chiefs 27 Lions 20
Chargers (+3.5) over RAVENS– Neither team has played well this year but between the Ravens defensive woes and the Chargers ability to move the ball in garbage time I’ll take the Chargers to find a way to gain the backdoor cover. Ravens 30 Chargers 27
Bengals (+1) over STEELERS- If the Steelers lose this game the divisional race is over just 8 weeks into the year. Ben is back which will help but I have my doubts he is 100% for this one. Bengals come out on top with a late field goal. Bengals 23 Steelers 21
Vikings (-1) over BEARS– The Bears won’t roll over and die but the Vikings defense is too much for this group. Not sure how much the Vikings open the offense up but if they do they can win going away. Vikings 23 Bears 16
TEXANS (-3.5) over Titans– Is anyone going to watch this game? Just a terrible matchup. Texans 24 Titans 20
FALCONS (-7) over Buccaneers– I have no idea what to make of Atlanta this season but if they cant put a hurting on this team that should get some warning flags up on them. Falcons 37 Buccaneers 16
BROWNS (+6) over Cardinals– On paper the Cardinals should win by double digits, but a 1PM start ater travel never works for this franchise. Thats the only reason Ill take the Browns to cover. Cardinals 24 Browns 20
Giants (+3) over SAINTS– These are two teams that just have weeks where they dont fire for whatever reason. Saints should have the big homefield but I expect the Giants to be up for the game and employ ther own physical style. Giants 23 Saints 20
RAMS (-8) over 49ers– If the Rams could get something out of Nick Foles they are a legit Super Bowl team, especially with the emergence of Todd Gurley and their defense. 49ers dont seem to do much anything right anymore. Rams 20 49ers 10
Jets (-3) over RAIDERS– Couple of things scare me for the Jets this week- the hangover impact of the Patriots game, a really hostile environment, the devloping talent on the Raiders offense that veteran teams might overlook. As long as the Jets secondary takes the Raiders passing game seriously I like the Jets chances, but if they don’t it could be a long day. Jets 26 Raiders 20
Seahawks (-4.5) over COWBOYS– This was the game last year that really changed the narrative on the Cowboys when they out muscled Seattle, but right now they just dont have the QB play to win. Seahawks 23 Cowboys 17
BRONCOS (+3) over Packers– Im basing this strictly on the strength of the Broncos defense to keep the game close. I think the Broncos are one of the few teams in the NFL that can match up with the Packers offensive personnel and keep them somewhat in check. Offensively Denver can’t do much but they can do just enought to keep it tight. Pakers 19 Broncos 17
PANTHERS (-6.5) over Colts– Colts are just a mess and the Panthers are probably playing their best football in the last two years right now. Panthers 26 Colts 16
Jason is the founder of OTC and has been studying NFL contracts and the salary cap for over 15 years. Jason has co-authored two books about the NFL, Crunching Numbers and the Drafting Stage, which are widely circulated in the industry and hosts the OTC Podcast. Jason’s work has been featured in various publications including the Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, NFL Network and more. OTC is widely considered the leading authority on contract matters in the NFL.