The mediocre run continues with a 10-5 record without the points and a 7-7-1 record with the points. Through four weeks I’m 42-21 SU and 34-27-2 ATS. All games are now posted following the Thursday dud of a prediction by me.
TEXANS(-5) over Colts– Indianapolis has looked awful with Andrew Luck and they may end up playing Josh Johnson at some point tonight, so its bad in Indy. Houston’s defense just seemed to quit last week once they fell behind but that shouldnt happen at home against an offense playing this poorly. If Houstons run game can get on track this week they should get their second win of the season. Texans 27 Colts 13
RAVENS (-6.5) over Browns– I don’t feel great about this pick because the Ravens defense has been so soft and the Browns will give it their best for 60 minutes, but Baltimore is the better team and is home. Their running game looks to be clicking again and I have to think they can run all over the Browns. Ravens 30 Browns 21
Rams (+9) over PACKERS- If the Rams can keep this from becoming a track meet they can keep this within 9 points and maybe even have a chance to win late. If the Packers explode out of the gate then the Rams probably lose by 30. Rams had a big win last week and they wilted the last time they did that, but Ill take the chance they dont repeat that mistake. Packers 23 Rams 17
Saints (+6) over EAGLES– Bradford hit a few big plays last week but Im still not convinced that the offense will click, even against a defense as bad as the Saints. I could see this going either way, though I consider this a must win for Philly. Eagles 23 Saints 20
Bills (-1) over TITANS– Could be a very fun game if Mariota isn’t lost against Rex Ryan’s defensive scheme. Bills have throttled two bad football teams and I think they will make it three here, but the Titans will mount a late rally to get it closer. Bills 37 Titans 30
BEARS (+9) over Chiefs– Normally Id take the Chiefs to overwhelm the Bears, but Andy Reid’s field goal hapy game plan doesnt make me confident in this kind of cover. Of course maybe that will be mitigated by John Fox’s strategy of punt at all costs, but Ill take my chances. Chiefs 27 Bears 20
BENGALS (-3) over Seahawks– Huge game for Cincy who seemed to fall apart last year as soon as they stepped up the competition leve at the same point in time. Seattle still isnt right, especially on offense, so its time for Cincy to step up. Bengals 26 Seahawks 17
Jaguars (+3) over BUCCANEERS– Probably close late, but will get my vote for least likely game to look like a contest between two NFL teams. Jaguars 19 Buccaneers 17
FALCONS (-7) over Redskins– Washington needs to get a great effort out of their running game just to keep this close. Between Julio Jones and their newfound running game I cant see Washington being able to call that many run plays. Falcons 34 Redskins 17
Cardinals (-3) Over LIONS– Detroit looks completely lost offensively and unless they find themselves they have no chance this week. Cardinals 30 Lions 13
Broncos (-4.5) over RAIDERS– Denver’s defense is impossible to deal and will prove a problem for the Raiders. Offensively the Broncos are struggling so I could see the game close for awhile but eventually the Broncos will pull away. Broncos 26 Raiders 17
Patriots (-9) over COWBOYS- Tough game for Dallas with the Patriots clicking and having an extra week to prepare for this game. Dallas should move the ball but their defense hasnt played well enough to make me think the Patriots cant score at will. Patriots 39 Cowboys 27
GIANTS (-6.5) over 49ers– Why is this on in prime time? After an opening week surprise, San Francisco has been everything everyone expected and worse. Im not sure what happened to Colin Kaepernick but he could be the worst starter in the NFL right now. Giants 23 49ers 10
Steelers (+3.5) over CHARGERS- If the Steelers were whole for this game I think they would win going away, but with the QB issues this becomes a much tougher game. I think Bell can get going early and help lead them to an outright win. Steelers 20 Chargers 17
Jason is the founder of OTC and has been studying NFL contracts and the salary cap for over 15 years. Jason has co-authored two books about the NFL, Crunching Numbers and the Drafting Stage, which are widely circulated in the industry and hosts the OTC Podcast. Jason’s work has been featured in various publications including the Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, NFL Network and more. OTC is widely considered the leading authority on contract matters in the NFL.