Last week was about as bad it could be for me picking the winners going 5-9 both SU and ATS. That drags my yearly record down to 95-51 and 72-69-5. All the games are up for the weekend.
Titans (+3) over JAGUARS– Thursday night football is rarely interesting and this will be about as bad as it gets for interest. Both teams are bad though the Jaguars can pass the ball downfield. Marcus Mariota has had his moments too for the Titans, but on short rest I cant see this being a crisp effort for either team. The Jaguars had a miracle win last week which I think will lead to a bit of a hangover and a Titans upset win. Titans 24 Jaguars 21
Rams (+3) over RAVENS– Rams made the QB change to try to spark their offense a bit, which should work against a pretty poor Ravens defense. Ravens invent new ways to lose games each week and Id expect something similar here. Rams 20 Ravens 19
DOLPHINS (+2) over Cowboys– It’s a must win game for the Cowboys whose season is barely on life support, but I think it is a lot to ask for Tony Romo to come back off injury and shake off all the rust. If he does they should win by a touchdown, but if not…Dolphins 23 Cowboys 20
Broncos (-1) over BEARS– The start of the Osweiler era begins against a Bears team which has really done well under the leadership of former Broncos coach John Fox. Don’t expect the Broncos to ask Osweiler to do much as they rely on the defense to win the game. Broncos 21 Bears 16
PANTHERS (-7) over Redskins– Redskins are one of those teams that looks good against bad teams and then folds as soon as the competition level increases, so this is a big test game for them if they want to make a claim to the NFC East crown. Panthers 28 Redskins 17
Raiders (+1) over LIONS– This line is too much of an overreaction to the games from last week. Can’t see any way the Lions stop the Raiders pass attack the way they did Green Bay. Wont be good for Oakland if they misfire again this week. Raiders 34 Lions 23
FALCONS (-4.5) over Colts– Hard game to venture a guess on because the Falcons on paper seem so much better but they have struggled badly after their hot start. Colts have played better and were efficient with Hasselbeck earlier this year, but if Atlanta can get off to a fast start the Colts should not be able to outgun them. Falcons 26 Colts 20
EAGLES (-6) over Buccaneers– If the Eagles don’t win this one going away there may be a mutiny in Philadelphia. Eagles 27 Buccaneers 17
Jets (-3) over TEXANS– Texans are playing better while the Jets have struggled the last few weeks. If te Jets avoid the special teams and offensive mistakes that sometimes plague them, Ryan Fitzpatrick should match his career high in wins for a season. Texans could make a late rally against a Jets team that doesn’t seem ready for 60 minutes. Jets 23 Texans 17
Chiefs (-3) over CHARGERS– Watch out for the Chiefs over these last 7 games. They came out of a ridiculously hard schedule to start the year and should take advantage of the lesser opponents now. Chiefs 34 Chargers 23
49ers (+13.5) over SEAHAWKS– This just seems like too big of a line for the Seahawks to cover these days. It wouldn’t stun me if they did but they are not a given at home like in the past. Seahawks 23 49ers 13
Packers (+1) over VIKINGS– I have no idea what is wrong with Green Bay unless they miss that balance that they had with Eddie Lacy being an effective player in the past. Big game for the Vikings who can take a lead in the division race. Hopefully the pressure wont get to them and cause a sloppy start. Packers 21 Vikings 19
Bengals (+5) over CARDINALS– Bengals have to comeback after last weeks poor effort in prime time. Everyone has been waiting for them to stumble and they can not let one loss have them fold. This is a tough game and I could go either way, but Ill hedge the pick and take the points but the Cards to win. Cardinals 24 Bengals 21
PATRIOTS (-7) over Bills– Following the win against the Jets, the Bills are back in talking mode which makes this come across as a much more interesting game than it probably will be on the field. Patriots 34 Bills 20
Jason is the founder of OTC and has been studying NFL contracts and the salary cap for over 15 years. Jason has co-authored two books about the NFL, Crunching Numbers and the Drafting Stage, which are widely circulated in the industry and hosts the OTC Podcast. Jason’s work has been featured in various publications including the Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, NFL Network and more. OTC is widely considered the leading authority on contract matters in the NFL.