2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: NFC West

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes:  NFC West

NFC East

AFC East

As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season.  Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy.  ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team.  I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up.  I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision.  As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release.

I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more.  First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low.  At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot.  Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website.  As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.

Seattle Seahawks:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Earl Thomas 99.3% NO
Cliff Avril 97.6% NO
KJ Wright 96.1% NO
Richard Sherman 93.9% NO
Kam Chancellor 84.6% NO
Doug Baldwin 82.5% NO
Michael Bennett 80.3% NO
Russell Okung 61.2% NO
Bruce Irvin 60.6% NO
Steven Hauschka 58.3% NO
Max Unger 57.4% NO
Marshawn Lynch 39.1% YES
Zach Miller 38.6% YES
Tony McDaniel 30.9% YES
Brandon Mebane 28.0% YES

San Francisco 49ers:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Anthony Davis 98.8% NO
Eric Reid 98.7% NO
Colin Kaepernick 95.0% NO
NaVorro Bowman 93.7% NO
Joe Staley 92.2% NO
Tramaine Brock 87.9% NO
Glenn Dorsey 76.2% NO
Antoine Bethea 73.5% NO
Steve Johnson 67.0% NO
Andy Lee 55.5% NO
Ahmad Brooks 49.7% YES
Patrick Willis 37.0% YES
Vernon Davis 34.6% YES
Alex Boone 33.5% YES
Anquan Boldin 24.1% YES
Justin Smith 13.1% YES
Phil Dawson 3.5% YES

Arizona Cardinals:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Patrick Peterson 97.2% NO
Jonathan Cooper 94.9% NO
Daryl Washington 93.0% NO
Jared Veldheer 93.0% NO
Michael Floyd 87.7% NO
Carson Palmer 69.4% NO
Calais Campbell 62.1% NO
Larry Fitzgerald 56.0% NO
Ted Ginn 52.1% NO
Matt Shaughnessy 46.3% YES
Jerraud Powers 38.4% YES
Lyle Sendlein 28.1% YES
Rashad Johnson 27.1% YES
Drew Stanton 23.4% YES
Lorenzo Alexander 22.2% YES
Darnell Dockett 18.3% YES

St. Louis Rams:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Greg Robinson 99.9% NO
Aaron Donald 99.9% NO
Tavon Austin 98.7% NO
Robert Quinn 98.6% NO
Johnny Hekker 98.5% NO
Jared Cook 91.3% NO
Michael Brockers 90.2% NO
Mark Barron 88.4% NO
Roger Saffold 83.5% NO
James Laurinaitis 76.0% NO
Sam Bradford 50.8% NO
Chris Long 48.8% YES
Jake Long 38.8% YES
Kendall Langford 35.2% YES
William Hayes 35.2% YES
Eugene Sims 17.0% YES
Scott Wells 14.1% YES

ECV Introduction Part 1:  Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

ECV Introduction Part 2:  Inputs & Outputs

ECV Introduction Part 3:  Contract Comparison

ECV Introduction Part 4:  Salary Cap Budgeting

ECV Introduction Part 5:  Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @eaglessalarycap.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.