2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: NFC South

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes:  NFC South

NFC East

AFC East

NFC West

AFC West

As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season.  Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy.  ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team.  I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up.  I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision.  As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release.

I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more.  First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low.  At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot.  Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website.  As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.

Carolina Panthers:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Star Lotululei 98.3% NO
Jonathan Stewart 95.2% NO
Luke Kuechly 90.2% NO
Graham Gano 84.1% NO
Ryan Kalil 65.7% NO
Charles Johnson 62.1% NO
DeAngelo Williams 54.8% NO
Greg Olson 40.9% YES
Mike Tolbert 39.9% YES
Thomas DeCoud 29.3% YES YES
Thomas Davis 26.3% YES

Atlanta Falcons:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Jake Matthews 99.9% NO
Desmond Trufant 96.7% NO
Matt Ryan 96.2% NO
Tyson Jackson 95.4% NO
Jon Asamoah 94.9% NO
Sam Baker 87.7% NO
Paul Soliai 87.7% NO
Roddy White 80.7% NO
William Moore 74.0% NO
Joe Hawley 57.7% NO
Justin Blalock 46.3% YES
Devin Hester 42.6% YES
Jonathan Babineaux 33.2% YES
Harry Douglas 24.7% YES
Steven Jackson 23.5% YES

New Orleans Saints:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Kenny Vaccaro 98.8% NO
Junior Galette 98.5% NO
Jairus Byrd 97.6% NO
Keenan Lewis 89.5% NO
Zach Strief 89.3% NO
Jimmy Graham 85.6% NO
Thomas Morstead 80.7% NO
Curtis Lofton 62.8% NO
Pierre Thomas 49.0% YES
Brodrick Bunkley 46.5% YES
Ben Grubbs 44.0% YES
David Hawthorne 41.6% YES
Marques Colston 34.9% YES
Jahri Evans 31.8% YES
Drew Brees 16.3% YES

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Mike Evans 99.9% NO
Gerald McCoy 96.7% NO
Michael Johnson 93.4% NO
Anthony Collins 90.8% NO
Alterraun Verner 90.2% NO
Clinton McDonald 79.0% NO
Evan Dietrich-Smith 74.9% NO
Dashon Goldson 74.7% NO
Doug Martin 64.7% NO
Demar Dotson 63.5% NO
Vincent Jackson 31.5% YES
Logan Mankins 28.9% YES
Michael Koenen 25.7% YES
Josh McCown 7.8% YES YES

Introduction Part 1:  Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2:  Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3:  Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4:  Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5:  Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @eaglessalarycap.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.