2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: NFC South

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes:  NFC South

NFC East

AFC East

NFC West

AFC West

As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season.  Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy.  ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team.  I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up.  I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision.  As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release.

I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more.  First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low.  At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot.  Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website.  As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.

Carolina Panthers:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Star Lotululei98.3%NO
Jonathan Stewart95.2%NO
Luke Kuechly90.2%NO
Graham Gano84.1%NO
Ryan Kalil65.7%NO
Charles Johnson62.1%NO
DeAngelo Williams54.8%NO
Greg Olson40.9%YES
Mike Tolbert39.9%YES
Thomas DeCoud29.3%YESYES
Thomas Davis26.3%YES

Atlanta Falcons:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Jake Matthews99.9%NO
Desmond Trufant96.7%NO
Matt Ryan96.2%NO
Tyson Jackson95.4%NO
Jon Asamoah94.9%NO
Sam Baker87.7%NO
Paul Soliai87.7%NO
Roddy White80.7%NO
William Moore74.0%NO
Joe Hawley57.7%NO
Justin Blalock46.3%YES
Devin Hester42.6%YES
Jonathan Babineaux33.2%YES
Harry Douglas24.7%YES
Steven Jackson23.5%YES

New Orleans Saints:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Kenny Vaccaro98.8%NO
Junior Galette98.5%NO
Jairus Byrd97.6%NO
Keenan Lewis89.5%NO
Zach Strief89.3%NO
Jimmy Graham85.6%NO
Thomas Morstead80.7%NO
Curtis Lofton62.8%NO
Pierre Thomas49.0%YES
Brodrick Bunkley46.5%YES
Ben Grubbs44.0%YES
David Hawthorne41.6%YES
Marques Colston34.9%YES
Jahri Evans31.8%YES
Drew Brees16.3%YES

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Mike Evans99.9%NO
Gerald McCoy96.7%NO
Michael Johnson93.4%NO
Anthony Collins90.8%NO
Alterraun Verner90.2%NO
Clinton McDonald79.0%NO
Evan Dietrich-Smith74.9%NO
Dashon Goldson74.7%NO
Doug Martin64.7%NO
Demar Dotson63.5%NO
Vincent Jackson31.5%YES
Logan Mankins28.9%YES
Michael Koenen25.7%YES
Josh McCown7.8%YESYES

Introduction Part 1:  Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2:  Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3:  Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4:  Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5:  Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @eaglessalarycap.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.