2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: NFC South
As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season. Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy. ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team. I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up. I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision. As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release.
I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more. First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low. At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot. Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website. As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.
Carolina Panthers:
| Player | Expected Outcome | Cut? | Correct? |
| Star Lotululei | 98.3% | NO | |
| Jonathan Stewart | 95.2% | NO | |
| Luke Kuechly | 90.2% | NO | |
| Graham Gano | 84.1% | NO | |
| Ryan Kalil | 65.7% | NO | |
| Charles Johnson | 62.1% | NO | |
| DeAngelo Williams | 54.8% | NO | |
| Greg Olson | 40.9% | YES | |
| Mike Tolbert | 39.9% | YES | |
| Thomas DeCoud | 29.3% | YES | YES |
| Thomas Davis | 26.3% | YES |
Atlanta Falcons:
| Player | Expected Outcome | Cut? | Correct? |
| Jake Matthews | 99.9% | NO | |
| Desmond Trufant | 96.7% | NO | |
| Matt Ryan | 96.2% | NO | |
| Tyson Jackson | 95.4% | NO | |
| Jon Asamoah | 94.9% | NO | |
| Sam Baker | 87.7% | NO | |
| Paul Soliai | 87.7% | NO | |
| Roddy White | 80.7% | NO | |
| William Moore | 74.0% | NO | |
| Joe Hawley | 57.7% | NO | |
| Justin Blalock | 46.3% | YES | |
| Devin Hester | 42.6% | YES | |
| Jonathan Babineaux | 33.2% | YES | |
| Harry Douglas | 24.7% | YES | |
| Steven Jackson | 23.5% | YES |
New Orleans Saints:
| Player | Expected Outcome | Cut? | Correct? |
| Kenny Vaccaro | 98.8% | NO | |
| Junior Galette | 98.5% | NO | |
| Jairus Byrd | 97.6% | NO | |
| Keenan Lewis | 89.5% | NO | |
| Zach Strief | 89.3% | NO | |
| Jimmy Graham | 85.6% | NO | |
| Thomas Morstead | 80.7% | NO | |
| Curtis Lofton | 62.8% | NO | |
| Pierre Thomas | 49.0% | YES | |
| Brodrick Bunkley | 46.5% | YES | |
| Ben Grubbs | 44.0% | YES | |
| David Hawthorne | 41.6% | YES | |
| Marques Colston | 34.9% | YES | |
| Jahri Evans | 31.8% | YES | |
| Drew Brees | 16.3% | YES |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
| Player | Expected Outcome | Cut? | Correct? |
| Mike Evans | 99.9% | NO | |
| Gerald McCoy | 96.7% | NO | |
| Michael Johnson | 93.4% | NO | |
| Anthony Collins | 90.8% | NO | |
| Alterraun Verner | 90.2% | NO | |
| Clinton McDonald | 79.0% | NO | |
| Evan Dietrich-Smith | 74.9% | NO | |
| Dashon Goldson | 74.7% | NO | |
| Doug Martin | 64.7% | NO | |
| Demar Dotson | 63.5% | NO | |
| Vincent Jackson | 31.5% | YES | |
| Logan Mankins | 28.9% | YES | |
| Michael Koenen | 25.7% | YES | |
| Josh McCown | 7.8% | YES | YES |
Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”
Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs
Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison
Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting
Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions
Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.
Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @eaglessalarycap.
Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.