2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: NFC East
As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season. Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy (Eli Manning being the best example below). ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team.
I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up. I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision. As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release, so Cullen Jenkins has already been “released” for these purposes, even though he remains under contract with the Giants.
I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more. First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low. At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot. Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website. As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.
EDIT: A previous version of this post omitted Cary Williams and Mathias Kiwanuka. Both players have now been added.
|Odell Beckham Jr||99.9%||NO|
|Robert Griffin III||87.7%||NO|