2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: NFC East

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes:  NFC East

As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season.  Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy (Eli Manning being the best example below).  ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team.

I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up.  I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision.  As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release, so Cullen Jenkins has already been “released” for these purposes, even though he remains under contract with the Giants.

I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more.  First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low.  At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot.  Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website.  As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.

EDIT: A previous version of this post omitted Cary Williams and Mathias Kiwanuka. Both players have now been added.

Philadelphia Eagles:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Jason Kelce 99.2% NO
Riley Cooper 96.4% NO
Lane Johnson 92.4% NO
Fletcher Cox 90.2% NO
Jason Peters 87.1% NO
Malcolm Jenkins 78.5% NO
LeSean McCoy 76.3% NO
Connor Barwin 69.0% NO
Darren Sproles 67.2% NO
Todd Herremans 48.1% YES
Trent Cole 47.9% YES
Brent Celek 43.2% YES
Nolan Carroll 38.7% YES
Cary Williams 29.2% YES
DeMeco Ryans 26.3% YES
James Casey 24.3% YES
Evan Mathis 21.4% YES
Donnie Jones 17.8% YES

Dallas Cowboys:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Tyron Smith 99.7% NO
Sean Lee 97.2% NO
Orlando Scandrick 97.2% NO
Dan Bailey 96.8% NO
Zach Martin 95.4% NO
Morris Claiborne 87.7% NO
Tony Romo 85.0% NO
Brandon Carr 67.9% NO
Henry Melton 58.6% NO
Jason Whitten 55.2% NO
Barry Church 52.6% NO
Mackenzy Bernadea 42.1% YES

New York Giants:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Odell Beckham Jr 99.9% NO
Justin Pugh 97.9% NO
DRC 93.5% NO
Victor Cruz 88.0% NO
Geoff Schwartz 82.2% NO
William Beatty 78.8% NO
David Wilson 75.3% NO
Rashad Jennings 71.0% NO
Jon Beason 54.3% NO
J.D. Walton 43.7% YES
Steve Weatherford 36.3% YES
Mathias Kiwanuka 27.0% YES
Jameel McClain 23.7% YES
Cullen Jenkins 16.6% YES YES
Eli Manning 13.0% YES

Washington Redskins

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
DeSean Jackson 95.4% NO
Andre Roberts 88.6% NO
Shawn Lauvao 87.8% NO
Robert Griffin III 87.7% NO
Jason Hatcher 77.5% NO
Perry Riley 77.2% NO
Chris Baker 76.3% NO
DeAngelo Hall 61.7% NO
Kory Lichtensteiger 52.9% NO
Pierre Garcon 51.5% NO
Trent Williams 43.9% YES
Barry Cofield 42.7% YES
Tracy Porter 40.4% YES
Logan Paulsen 36.7% YES
Chris Chester 21.7% YES
Stephen Bowen 21.2% YES