2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: AFC West

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes:  AFC West

NFC East

AFC East

NFC West

As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season.  Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy.  ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team.  I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up.  I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision.  As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release.

I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more.  First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low.  At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot.  Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website.  As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.

Denver Broncos:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Chris Harris 99.8% NO
Sylvester Williams 95.1% NO
Aqib Talib 85.4% NO
T.J. Ward 74.7% NO
Emmanuel Sanders 64.1% NO
DeMarcus Ware 62.0% NO
Louis Vasquez 61.1% NO
Britton Colquitt 57.2% NO
Ryan Clady 54.1% NO
Manny Ramirez 19.8% YES
Peyton Manning 5.4% YES

Kansas City Chiefs:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Allen Bailey 99.2% NO
Eric Fisher 95.8% NO
Alex Smith 88.0% NO
Dontari Poe 87.7% NO
Jamaal Charles 82.3% NO
Vance Walker 71.8% NO
Eric Berry 66.8% NO
Dwayne Bowe 63.8% NO
Anthony Fasano 47.5% YES
Dustin Colquitt 46.8% YES
Sean Smith 45.5% YES
Chase Daniel 41.5% YES
Joe Mays 32.8% YES
Tamba Hali 31.6% YES
Mike DeVito 28.4% YES
Donnie Avery 21.7% YES YES
Derrick Johnson 20.7% YES

San Diego Chargers:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Donald Butler 99.9% NO
DJ Fluker 98.7% NO
Danny Woodhead 82.0% NO
Melvin Ingram 76.8% NO
Donald Brown 71.2% NO
John Phillips 50.0% NO
Eric Weddle 34.2% YES
Chad Rinehart 27.1% YES
Mike Scifres 19.7% YES
Philip Rivers 16.6% YES
Malcom Floyd 15.8% YES
Antonio Gates 14.9% YES
Jarret Johnson 12.5% YES

Oakland Raiders:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Khalil Mack 99.9% NO
DJ Hayden 95.3% NO
Austin Howard 89.4% NO
Tyvon Branch 83.6% NO
Marcel Reece 60.5% NO
Maurice Jones Drew 57.4% NO
James Jones 50.3% NO
Nick Roach 48.4% YES
Lamarr Woodley 28.7% YES
Sebastian Janikowski 21.5% YES
Justin Tuck 19.9% YES
Donald Penn 19.4% YES
Antonio Smith 17.6% YES
Matt Schaub 15.0% YES

Introduction Part 1:  Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2:  Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3:  Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4:  Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5:  Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @eaglessalarycap.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.