2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: AFC South

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes:  AFC South

NFC East   |   AFC East

NFC West   |   AFC West

NFC South 

As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season.  Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy.  ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team.  I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up.  I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision.  As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release.

I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more.  First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low.  At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot.  Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website.  As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.

Indianapolis Colts:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Bjoern Werner 96.2% NO
Vontae Davis 90.3% NO
D’Qwell Jackson 87.9% NO
Trent Richardson 83.5% NO
Arthur Jones 81.0% NO
Gosder Cherilus 80.0% NO
Andrew Luck 75.3% NO
Pat McAfee 74.6% NO
LaRon Landry 58.0% NO NO
Ricky Jean-Francois 52.3% NO
Robert Mathis 45.3% YES
Donald Thomas 43.8% YES
Erik Walden 37.2% YES
Greg Toler 27.2% YES
Shaun Phillips 12.3% YES YES
Adam Vinatieri 2.0% YES

Houston Texans:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Jadeveon Clowney 99.9% NO
Brian Cushing 98.2% NO
JJ Watt 98.1% NO
DeAndre Hopkins 97.7% NO
Duane Brown 73.5% NO
Whitney Mercilus 71.1% NO
Garrett Graham 61.5% NO
Arian Foster 57.4% NO
Johnathan Joseph 30.6% YES
Ryan Fitzpatrick 23.3% YES
Andre Johnson 17.7% YES
Chris Myers 15.3% YES
Shane Lechler 4.5% YES

Tennessee Titans:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Taylor Lewan 99.9% NO
Jurrell Casey 98.3% NO
Chance Warmack 96.2% NO
Kendall Wright 82.2% NO
Andy Levitre 80.0% NO
Wesley Woodyard 78.9% NO
Dexter McCluster 78.6% NO
Michael Oher 77.0% NO NO
Jason McCourty 74.0% NO
Kamerion Wimbley 61.9% NO
Ropati Pitoitua 54.2% NO
Michael Griffin 44.5% YES
Al Woods 42.9% YES
Sammie Lee Hill 42.1% YES
Delanie Walker 37.6% YES
Shonn Greene 32.0% YES
Craig Stevens 21.1% YES
Charlie Whitehurst 17.0% YES

Jacksonville Jaguars:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Blake Bortles 99.9% NO
Luke Joeckel 99.0% NO
Zane Beadles 92.3% NO
Roy Miller 85.0% NO
Ziggy Hood 80.3% NO
Justin Blackmon 74.4% NO
Toby Gerhart 72.0% NO
Red Bryant 66.3% NO
Sen’Derrick Marks 65.7% NO
Chris Clemons 50.9% NO
Paul Posluszny 39.8% YES
Chad Henne 31.8% YES
Mercedes Lewis 26.4% YES
Josh Scobee 18.1% YES

Introduction Part 1:  Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2:  Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3:  Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4:  Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5:  Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @eaglessalarycap.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.