2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: AFC North

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes:  AFC North

NFC East   |   AFC East

NFC West   |   AFC West

NFC South   |   AFC South

NFC North

As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season.  Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy.  ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team.  I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up.  I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision.  As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release.

I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more.  First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low.  At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot.  Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website.  As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.

Baltimore Ravens:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Eugene Monroe 98.4% NO
Terrell Suggs 98.2% NO
Joe Flacco 98.1% NO
Dennis Pitta 97.8% NO
Jeremy Zuttah 95.1% NO
Elvis Dumervil 76.1% NO
Lardarius Webb 72.5% NO
Jacoby Jones 71.9% NO
Daryl Smith 56.2% NO
Marshal Yanda 37.1% YES
Haloti Ngata 36.3% YES
Steve Smith 24.8% YES
Chris Canty 22.1% YES
Sam Koch 17.9% YES

Pittsburgh Steelers:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Ryan Shazier 99.9% NO
Jarvis Jones 98.3% NO
Maurkice Pouncey 98.2% NO
Marcus Gilbert 95.6% NO
Cortez Allen 95.2% NO
Antonio Brown 88.5% NO
Mike Mitchell 87.8% NO
Shaun Suisham 71.4% NO
David DeCastro 71.2% NO
Lawrence Timmons 61.9% NO
Heath Miller 61.2% NO
Troy Polamalu 46.6% YES
Cam Thomas 44.2% YES
Steve McLendon 39.5% YES
Ramon Foster 36.9% YES
Ben Roethlisberger 22.8% YES

Cincinnati Bengals:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Tyler Eifert 97.4% NO
Andy Dalton 97.0% NO
Carlos Dunlap 95.2% NO
Vontaze Burfict 94.9% NO
Geno Atkins 93.8% NO
Dre Kirkpatrick 81.0% NO
Domata Peko 74.0% NO
Kevin Zeitler 71.0% NO
Kevin Huber 55.1% NO
Andre Smith 46.0% YES
Leon Hall 36.2% YES
Vincent Rey 35.9% YES
Wallace Gillberry 33.1% YES
Reggie Nelson 27.4% YES
Adam Jones 20.8% YES
Robert Geathers 19.7% YES
Andrew Whitworth 19.7% YES

Cleveland Browns:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Justin Gilbert 99.9% NO
Joe Haden 99.4% NO
Alex Mack 95.6% NO
Barkevious Mingo 93.8% NO
Donte Whitner 83.0% NO
Karlos Dansby 79.7% NO
Joe Thomas 71.4% NO
Andrew Hawkins 67.0% NO
Paul Kruger 64.4% NO
Desmond Bryant 63.8% NO

Introduction Part 1:  Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2:  Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3:  Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4:  Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5:  Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @eaglessalarycap.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.