2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: AFC East

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes:  AFC East

NFC East

As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season.  Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy.  ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team.  I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up.  I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision.  As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release.

I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more.  First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low.  At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot.  Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website.  As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.

New England Patriots:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Rob Gronkowski 99.4% NO
Marcus Cannon 91.6% NO
Julian Edelman 82.2% NO
Chandler Jones 80.9% NO
Patrick Chung 76.9% NO
Jerod Mayo 76.1% NO
Brandon LaFell 72.6% NO
Donta Hightower 71.2% NO
Danny Amendola 71.2% NO
Kyle Arrington 65.8% NO
Rob Ninkovich 58.3% NO
Brandon Browner 49.0% YES
Sebastian Vollmer 43.2% YES
Tom Brady 41.5% YES
Ryan Wendell 32.3% YES
Darrelle Revis 27.2% YES
Vince Wilfork 22.2% YES

New York Jets:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Sheldon Richardson 98.7% NO
Eric Decker 97.0% NO
Dee Milliner 97.0% NO
Jeremy Kerley 96.5% NO
Percy Harvin 89.8% NO
Breno Giacomini 88.9% NO
Quinten Coples 87.2% NO
Nick Folk 73.0% NO
D’Brickashaw Ferguson 61.6% NO
Nick Mangold 52.3% NO
Chris Ivory 51.6% NO
Chris Johnson 36.6% YES YES
Calvin Pace 14.5% YES

Miami Dolphins:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Brandon Albert 96.0% NO
Dion Jordan 92.5% NO
Brent Grimes 87.6% NO
Mike Wallace 80.8% NO
Philip Wheeler 76.5% NO
Koa Misi 75.1% NO
Brian Hartline 72.7% NO
Reshad Jones 72.7% NO
Ryan Tannehill 68.9% NO
Dannell Ellerbe 58.6% NO
Brandon Gibson 44.7% YES
Shelley Smith 42.4% YES
Brandon Fields 32.6% YES
Randy Starks 26.4% YES
Cortland Finnegan 26.3% YES
Cameron Wake 20.3% YES  

Buffalo Bills:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Sammy Watkins 99.9% NO
Aaron Williams 99.6% NO
EJ Manuel 98.3% NO
Stephon Gilmore 87.7% NO
Eric Wood 82.2% NO
Dan Carpenter 79.5% NO
Chris Williams 77.3% NO
Corey Graham 73.8% NO
Mario Williams 61.7% NO
Kraig Urbik 54.3% NO
Leodis McKelvin 53.8% NO
Manny Lawson 45.8% YES
Kyle Williams 45.6% YES
Keith Rivers 42.0% YES
Scott Chandler 33.3% YES
Fred Jackson 13.0% YES