Welcome to our first edition of our 2014 NFL Power Rankings. These rankings are not based on my opinions of the teams but instead on how efficient the teams are at scoring and preventing points being scored when compared to their specific schedule. The way we calculate a teams ranking is as follows:
Scoring Efficiency= (teams points scored per game – schedule’s points allowed per game)/(schedules points allowed per game)
Defensive Efficiency = (schedules points scored per game – teams points allowed per game)/(schedules points scored per game)
In all cases a team’s schedule is adjusted to remove games played by that team such that the averages only reflect how their opponents fared against the other 31 NFL teams. Total efficiency sums up the two columns. The predicted wins is based on a regression formula from multiple years of data, though its accuracy is better at the end of the year than now.
Perhaps not surprisingly Denver and Seattle rank as the top two teams in the NFL. Both have faced difficult schedules (Denver has played the number 2, 5, 6 and 12 ranked teams while Seattle has played the number 1, 3, 10, and 27 ranked teams) which has made their starts very impressive. San Diego hits the top 3 with three difficult opponents but also two pushovers. The Ravens and Colts round out the top 5. The bottom five consists of the Jaguars, Raiders, Buccaneers, Rams, and Jets.
Thus far Denver and Seattle have been the most efficient offenses in the NFL. The Colts, who lead the NFL is scoring, rank 3rd because their schedule has been weaker. The Eagles, who are tied with the Colts, only rank 7th, having also faced a very easy schedule this year. The Giants and Falcons rank 4 and 5. The worst team in the NFL when it comes to scoring points is Oakland who is scoring 47.9% less than their schedule allows this year. Jacksonville is not far behind.
Defensively there are definitely some surprises with the Ravens, Chargers, Lions, Bills, and Texans making up the top 5 teams. Tampa, Jacksonville, Chicago, Oakland, and Atlanta are the worst at preventing points from being scored.
Thus far the worst division by a landslide is the NFC South with an aggregate score of -105.6 and not one team ranking positive.
Ill add cap figures to the charts next week but here are the rankings through week 5. Clicking on a header should sort the table.
NFL Power Rankings, Through Week 5
|Rank||Team||Scoring Efficiency||Defensive Efficiency||Total Efficiency||Projected Wins|
Jason is the founder of OTC and has been studying NFL contracts and the salary cap for over 15 years. Jason has co-authored two books about the NFL, Crunching Numbers and the Drafting Stage, which are widely circulated in the industry and hosts the OTC Podcast. Jason’s work has been featured in various publications including the Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, NFL Network and more. OTC is widely considered the leading authority on contract matters in the NFL.