2014 Final NFL Power Rankings

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With the season now complete we have our final power rankings for the season. Overall the predictions were pretty good this year with an average error of 0.8 for each team. The biggest overachievers on the season looked to the Cardinals and Lions who won 2.4 and 2.1 more games than expected this year. The biggest underachievers were Tampa Bay and the Giants, who would have been expected to win 2.1 and 1.4 more games than they actually did.

The Patriots ended up claiming the top spot for the year. The best teams in the NFL, by far, were the Patriots, Broncos, Seahawks and Packers. Of those teams Seattle is the team best suited to deal with a dud showing by their dominant unit as they are a bit more balanced than the other three teams. If the Packers or Broncos have a no show on offense it is unlikely that they would win those spots.

The best scoring teams of the year were the Broncos, Packers, Patriots, and Eagles. In Philadelphia’s case I think a larger amount than normal is due to special teams play. The worst offenses were the Jaguars, Titans, and Buccaneers, not surprisingly the teams who will have the top three picks in the NFL draft. Actually 6 of the 7 worst ranking offenses will be in the top 6. Only the Browns avoided a top draft showing despite the complete lack of offense.

From a defensive standpoint the best teams were the Seahawks, Lions, and Bills with Seattle being by far the most dominant team. The worst teams were the Raiders, Bears, and Redskins.

The teams that faced the most high powered offenses were the Bengals (23.44 PPG), Jaguars(23.43), and Jets(23.23). The Steelers, Broncos and Falcons faced the least imposing offenses. Toughest defensive schedules belonged to all AFC West teams in Oakland, Denver, and San Diego all of whom faced schedules between that allowed between 20.75 and 21.5 PPG. The Texans, Bucs, and Cowboys faced the worst defenses with averages coming in between 23.5 and 23.9 PPG.

NFL Power Rankings, Final

Rank Team Scoring Efficiency Defensive Efficiency Total Efficiency Projected Wins Difference
1 Patriots 34.5% 13.5% 47.9% 12.5 -0.5
2 Broncos 44.1% -2.3% 41.9% 11.9 0.1
3 Seahawks 10.7% 30.8% 41.5% 12.0 0.0
4 Packers 37.5% 2.1% 39.5% 11.7 0.3
5 Ravens 10.3% 15.6% 25.9% 10.5 -0.5
6 Cowboys 24.0% 1.2% 25.2% 10.4 1.6
7 Colts 25.7% -1.3% 24.4% 10.3 0.7
8 Eagles 31.6% -11.4% 20.3% 9.9 0.1
9 Chiefs -1.7% 21.8% 20.2% 9.9 -0.9
10 Bills -3.4% 21.8% 18.5% 9.8 -0.8
11 Steelers 21.9% -7.3% 14.7% 9.4 1.6
12 Texans -2.9% 13.8% 10.9% 9.0 0.0
13 Lions -14.7% 23.8% 9.1% 8.9 2.1
14 Bengals 0.1% 8.3% 8.4% 8.8 1.7
15 Dolphins 12.3% -4.4% 7.9% 8.7 -0.7
16 Cardinals -12.4% 18.6% 6.2% 8.6 2.4
17 Chargers 1.1% 1.5% 2.7% 8.2 0.8
18 Giants 4.2% -10.0% -5.9% 7.4 -1.4
19 Rams -7.3% 0.3% -7.0% 7.3 -1.3
20 49ers -15.0% 7.2% -7.8% 7.3 0.7
21 Vikings -13.1% 5.0% -8.2% 7.2 -0.2
22 Panthers -8.9% -0.7% -9.6% 7.1 0.4
23 Saints 10.2% -19.9% -9.7% 7.0 0.0
24 Browns -20.2% 6.6% -13.6% 6.7 0.3
25 Falcons 3.9% -18.8% -14.8% 6.6 -0.6
26 Jets -20.3% -7.9% -28.2% 5.3 -1.3
27 Bears -10.1% -21.1% -31.2% 5.0 0.0
28 Redskins -18.3% -20.0% -38.4% 4.4 -0.4
29 Buccaneers -27.2% -13.5% -40.8% 4.1 -2.1
30 Jaguars -33.8% -9.9% -43.7% 3.9 -0.9
31 Raiders -23.8% -25.5% -49.3% 3.3 -0.3
32 Titans -31.3% -19.7% -51.0% 3.2 -1.2

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