Zack’s MNF Pick

This is why you don’t bet heavy in the first few weeks of the season, none of us really have any idea how the season’s going to shake out, let alone early in the NFL season.

I don’t think anyone predicted…

…that the Saints would lose to the Browns who didn’t have Ben Tate, Jordan Cameron or the still suspended Josh Gordon to go to 0-2 on the season.

…that Kirk Cousins would come in for an injured RG3 and essentially “Wally Pipp” him with a commanding performance as the Redskins offense exploded for 41 points under his leadership.

…that the Falcons would be held to 10 points we week after they exploded for 37 points and 448 passing yards against, what should be, a good Saints defense. Not only did they get held to 10 points, but Matt Ryan had about 100 passing yards after three quarters in Cincinnati and finished the game with three interceptions. So while I expected the Bengals to win, I didn’t expect it to be low scoring.

…that the Bears would be able to go into the brand new Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco and beat the 49ers in come from behind fashion with the Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery banged up. Who predicted that Marshall would play, let alone have THREE touchdowns?

Did anyone think the Chargers were going to handily beat the defending Super Bowl Champion Seahawks?

I know Phillip Rivers has revitalized his career with a new coaching staff, but many of us were grumbling that Antonio Gates might start taking a back seat to Ladarius Green this year. Oh no, three TDs for Mr. Gates and a beat down of the Seahawks.

Anyway, I’m currently 8-10-1 on my picks here for the season, but whatever, it’s a long season. On to tonight’s game…

I really like both of these offenses, so I’ve gotta hammer the over tonight. I don’t care that it’s at 53.54 points, I love what we saw out of both of these offenses in the second half of their games last week and I think they’ll keep it rolling into this Monday Night match up in the dome in Indy.

I think that Philadelphia’s defense is better than the D in Indy, but with the home field advantage going to the Colts, so I’m not sure who’s going to win, but I do think that Luck and Foles get into a shoot out.

Who knows, I’ll probably be wrong again and the game will end 27-24 just to tease me and let me down, but the over is your best bet tonight in this early season match up.

Check out the Linesmakers from Sporting News for some interesting stats regarding tonight’s game. The most interesting one to me is that the over has hit in 7 of their last 8 games versus winning teams, which I think is due to their defense being subpar, thus being unable to keep up with the better teams.

Pick: OVER 53.5

Zack Moore

@ZackMooreNFL

Total Human Optimization: Onnit

  • mike jones

    nice pick on that over tonight.

    you are correct that not many picked the Browns to win outright, but getting +6.5 at home vs the saints was the easy pick there as the saints didn’t look 9.5 points better than any team on a neutral field in week1 (save the raiders) as they don’t play so great on grass outside.

    I thought the chargers were also another obvious pick as the hawks aren’t world beaters on the road and looked like the 85 bears the week before so the books were gonna have to float a number higher than they wanted to get anything approaching even action.

    greenbay was also another very public team that was easy to go against last week. these lines are just too high.

    • Really good analysis, thanks for the insight Mike!