Well, here we are, I’m finally at .500 with a 10-10-1 record after seeing the Atlanta Falcons hit the over on their own Thursday night. Now, looking ahead to tomorrow’s slate of games, let’s get to it…
I’ve gotta go with Dallas at -2.5 out in St. Louis. It’s not a vote of confidence in the Cowboys, even though they looked good against the Titans last week, but I just don’t think the Rams are any good. They beat a bad Bucs team on a late field goal last week and while I thought the Rams had a shot to compete this year, but without Sam Bradford, I don’t think they don’t have much of a chance. Austin Davis and Zac Stacy both performed very well last week, but I think Tony Romo, Demarco Murray, and Dez Bryant will be far too much for a defense that won’t be as good as they were last year.
Other than that, I think this is the worst game of the week, so let’s carry on.
PICK: Dallas -2.5
Next, we’ve got Philadelphia giving six points to a Washington Redskins team that looked rejuvenated last week with Kirk Cousins under center. While Cousins looked terrific, he was playing the Jacksonville Jaguars who can’t seem to get it together, but I do see a bright future in Jacksonville as they have some nice young pieces and they have seemed to buy into Gus Bradley and his coaching staff.
Philadelphia hasn’t missed a beat after losing Desean Jackson this offseason as they’ve gotten Maclin back and they’ve used Ertz and Sproles very well through two weeks. The Redskins have a better defense than the Jaguars and Colts, but I think Philly keeps it rolling at home to improve to 3-0. The Eagles were a dark horse Super Bowl pick for me this offseason as I like the fact that they have a low cost QB, two fantastic running backs, two good WRs and a great TE in Ertz, and I believe that their defense is good enough for them to make a run. I don’t think they’re going to win the Super Bowl, but they’ve got a great shot at home field advantage if they take care of business in a weak NFC East, so I think this is where they get started in a 31-14 type win over the Redskins.
PICK: Philadelphia -6
We’ve got my hometown Giants at home against the Houston Texans. I’m very biased as I’m a big Brian Cushing fan and I’m happy to see him back, but you see how important he is while he’s been gone the last two years. The defense just isn’t the same without him, but now we’re seeing that swarming Texans D that has been a staple of the Watt/Cushing Era, I can’t wait to see what this defense looks like with Jadeveon Clowney back in action.
On offense, they’ve got Arian Foster back to form with Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins forming the best tandem during the time Johnson’s been there. Fitzpatrick is a serviceable game manager and has done well doing his job the first two weeks.
In terms of the Giants, there’s no denying how for lack of a better word, “doo-doo,” they’ve looked through two weeks. It’s shocking how bad the Giants have gotten over the last few years as it was just three years ago that I had the pleasure of laughing in the face of Patriots fans in Rhode Island as my New York Football Giants broke their hearts for the second time in five years, but they’ve looked hopeless. I know losing first-round pick David Wilson for good during training camp hurts, but they’ve had issues everywhere. Their offensive line has looked bad after losing Snee and Diehl to retirement; Evan Silva from Rotoworld thinks that Victor Cruz has been the worst player in the entire NFL and he might be right. I do think the Giants will be okay and finish the season around 8-8, maybe 9-7 if they get the four wins they should get out of their Cowboys and Redskins match ups, and if they run the offense the way they said they were going to heading into this season. We all thought Cruz was going to be taking on the Randall Cobb role in this offense, just like we all have been listening to Joe Flacco talk about how much Torrey Smith is going to get the ball, rather than actually throwing him the football, so for the time being, you have to bet against the Giants until they show us that they’re actually going to play football this season.
Considering that this game is a pick em and the Texans are underrated after an atrocious season last year, I think this line is an easy bet. Take the Texans.
BREAKING: Arian Foster will not play, I’m not going to take this pick down, so you can see my logic behind it, but I wouldn’t touch this game. The Giants are bad, but this could be a low scoring game that they eek out.
PICK: Texans Pick Em
I RARELY even look at the favorite in a double digit spread, but I don’t think the Vikings can hang with the Saints who are now 0-2 and fired up at home in front of a Seahawks-esque home environment.
While Mark Ingram has looked great, I don’t think his loss will have too much of an impact on today’s game as Khiry Robinson will step into that role and do it well. After the beat down the Patriots gave the Peterson-less Vikings last week in Minnesota, I expect something similar in New Orleans.
I don’t think there’s much more to talk about in this game, the Vikings are in a tough spot without their bell cow, but one guy to keep an eye on as the year progresses is Jerick McKinnon, he has an insane SPARQ rating meaning: he’s a freak.
PICK: New Orleans -10.5
Cincinnati just might be the best team in the NFL. Like I’ve detailed here before, their salary cap situation is fantastic and they’ll be good for awhile. I love their running back situation with two young, low-cost stud RBs in Gio Bernard and Jeremy Hill and AJ Green has been upgraded to probable for this afternoon’s game at home against the Titans.
After we saw the Titans get run over by Demarco Murray and the Cowboys, we should expect the same this week with the tandem of Gio and J. Hill as Hue Jackson does a great job of game planning to his opponents weaknesses. I expect this one to be out of hand with the Bengals blowing them out.
PICK: Bengals -7
Next, we’ve got the Green Bay Packers at the Detroit Lions and it’s not even Thanksgiving yet! I’m not sure who’s going to win this week as I’m not sure what we have in either team yet. They’ve each had games where they’ve looked hopeless as the Packers got smoked by the Seahawks in Week 1 and the Lions got smoked last week in Carolina, but I do see this being a high scoring affairs between two of the five best QBs in the league in Rodgers and Stafford.
The Packers have always played well in Detroit with Rodgers under center, so I feel that this game blows past the 52.5 over that’s currently on the books and it ends up in the 30s, something like 38-35, but you decide who’s going to win.
PICK: OVER 52.5
Ah…the Colts spread just got upped to -7.5 in Jacksonville, but I think they take this by at least 10. The Colts have just too much firepower on offense to not smash a team that gave up 41 points to the lowly Redskins. Bet on the Colts and, you might want to think about the over.
PICK: Colts -7.5
I was going to throw down on the Patriots at -14, but I’m unwilling to touch them at -15, but if you’re comfortable with that, go for it. They’re going to blow the Raiders out, I’m just nervous about the Raiders covering late.
Stay tuned, haven’t decided on my 4 o’clock picks, but I’m surely going to have an opinion on those. Follow me @ZackMooreNFL for all your football needs on this B-E-A-U-tiful NFL Sunday!
Total Human Optimization: Onnit