Thoughts on the Richard Sherman Extension and the Seahawks

Today Richard Sherman himself reported that he signed a new contract with the Seattle Seahawks that would keep him in Seattle through 2018. It’s a huge contract, worth $14 million a season, with up to $40 million in guaranteed salary. Thanks to former agent and terrific cap columnist Joel Corry we have the breakdown of the cash flows of the contract which gives us the ability to look at how good a deal this is.

For Sherman this is a great contract. Sherman had little leverage this year to gain an extension and was scheduled to earn just $1.431 million. To make matters worse the cornerback market completely shrunk over the last two seasons with the $16 million Darrelle Revis contract quickly evaporating after just one season and no new players being signed for $10 million a season. Many teams would play hardball in that situation with a non-QB, even if a great player, but Seattle did everything they could to keep their corner happy.

The most recent real contracts at the position that we can compare Sherman’s contract are the Darrelle Revis 2010 contract with the New York Jets and Nnamdi Asomugha 2011 contract with the Philadelphia Eagles. Asomugha signed as a pure free agent while Revis had his rookie contract in essence torn up to make the numbers work such that he would accept the contract. Just for kicks I’ll throw in the crazy three year deal that was signed by Asomugha with the Oakland Raiders in 2009. Here are the cash flows of the contracts:

Sherman cash flows 1

As you can see this is quite the accomplishment for Sherman. Over a three year period he will be able to nearly match, in terms of new money, the over the top figure the Raiders threw at Asomugha back in 2009. It was a complete head scratcher of a contract and for Sherman to reach to that level is quite impressive, especially if $40 million is truly guaranteed.

For Seattle we can take a slightly different approach to the contract. They knew they were going to do everything they could to keep Sherman in the fold next season. They could have franchised him to limit cash flows but sometimes that can be counter-productive to negotiations. While the $14 million a year new money figure is big to everyone, for Seattle they can view this as a five year contract that they can work in any manner they wish.  For this we can also look at Brandon Carr, the highest long term contract currently on the books.

Sherman Cash Flows 2

When looked at from the team perspective it’s a bit different. Sherman’s real cash flows trail Revis through three years and he essentially equals Revis’ four year take home salary. Sherman never surpasses Asomugha in this manner and actually trails Carr through two years and is only $2 million above after three. Essentially they can account for Sherman as an $11.5 million a year player by signing him to an extension now rather than playing the market next year when things could change if Patrick Peterson receives a huge extension from the Cardinals.

By making this move now Seattle is also doing some behind the scenes maneuvering which I think is very smart for how they run their organization. Many times the relationship between player representative and team can be very contentious. This was certainly the case in 2010 with Revis when Revis was prepared to sit out a season and was not in the best of shape when he returned. Not surprisingly Revis was dealt away in 2013. You always need to worry about those situations with players especially when the off the field contract talks work their way into on the field performance.

By locking up Sherman and, recently, Safety Earl Thomas to market setting extensions they are diffusing any situations that may arise with good players in the future such as Russell Wilson. Sherman is the first real big extension of the 2011 draft class. Peterson did not get a new deal from the Cardinals. Von Miller can’t get one with Denver. Colin Kaepernick hasn’t signed yet with the 49ers. Thomas is only the second of his draft class to get a big extension. Demaryius Thomas hasn’t received one yet. Jason Pierre-Paul doesn’t seem close to one. Seattle had no problems getting the deals done.

That goes a long way towards a player believing that as long as he maintains a high level of play he will be rewarded at any time with a new contract. It helps keep rookies motivated for their entire four year contract rather than picking and choosing when to make their marks. The team has been very generous with their own talent (in addition to those two they have signed C Max Unger and S Kam Chancellor to nice deals) and has made marks with outside players as well. Both Marshawn Lynch and Michael Bennett received solid deals from the team in recent years after showing good results on what might be termed bargain contracts prior to their new deals. They also paid quite a ransom for Percy Harvin.These moves can make Seattle a choice organization for many free agents.  It is not always about top dollar today with Seattle but the potential top dollar that may await tomorrow.

It is no surprise they are sending agents pamphlets about the benefits of undrafted free agents signing with the Seahawks. Seattle needs those players to now balance out these big contracts they are signing, but those players can benefit from playing in Seattle. The Cincinnati Bengals could have extended star LB Vontaze Burfict this year. Maybe they still will but as of now they have not. Burfict was a great UDFA find and the team controls his rights for almost no money in 2014, the high RFA tender in 2015, and a potential franchise tag in 2016. Who knows if that is the route they go, but based on what we have seen in Seattle they would throw their leverage out the window in order to get a deal done that makes both sides happy.  UDFA’s will take notice of the way Seattle does business and it may be better to sign there for $1,000 guaranteed than elsewhere for $10,000 guaranteed.

Is this model sustainable for Seattle.  Provided they draft well and attract the best UDFA’s it will be. If they whiff badly on a draft class they will begin to feel pressure from their cap. Currently our estimates have Seattle with about $109 million in cap charges committed to 2015 as we enter the draft. They will lose about $5 million to draft picks next year leaving them with $114 million in cap charges for the full roster. That should be enough room to get things done with QB Russell Wilson, who stands to make a fortune from the Seahawks if they continue to be a playoff team, and LT Russell Okung provided that the cap jumps to the $140 million range.

However that is not going to leave the team with a great deal of wiggle room to bring in more expensive outside talent, so they have to draft extremely well and fill the voids with the low cost talent until they recycle out the new veterans in 4 or 5 years and replace them with the players drafted or signed in 2014 through 2017. They should be able to continue to attract reasonably priced free agents as well to try to fit in for a year or two, with those players knowing that they could make a contractual splash in Seattle or elsewhere once their time is up in Seattle. But the draft is critical for the team.

It is definitely an interesting team to watch and to see if the model can lead to sustained success or leads to a crowded salary cap that gets old 3 or 4 years down the line with no reinforcements to keep any window open. But for now Seattle should be doing more than enough to keep most of their talent motivated to repeat and hopefully avoid the Super Bowl hangover that hits many teams.


 

  • Pete Johnson

    ***Provided they draft well*** Huge caveat, they aren’t going to keep hitting grand slams in the late rounds believe that.

    • monkey

      Why not?
      Actually I don’t believe that, not at all.
      In fact, the Seahwks have hit more home runs with their late round picks, and undrafted free agents than with their top two round picks; and they’ve done that because of terrific player scouting. I see absolutely no reason at all why that shouldn’t continue.

      • eYeDEF

        Not just scouting but Pete’s remarkable ability to coach them up and get the most out of them. That seems to be overlooked when it comes to the draft, but late round picks require good player dev because some aspect of their play or character is lacking for them to have dropped that far. I think that’s where Pete and the team environment he fosters really shines in being able to inspire and get the most out of the overlooked players they end up selecting.

      • factbased

        I only know the results, not inside information on their scouting. They’ve gotten some great, undervalued players in the draft lately. But the sample size on the results is way too small to be confident that their scouting is better than other teams’, rather than just being on a lucky streak and having good coaching.

  • George McGeorge

    14MM for a Corner Back is too much.

    Seattle can afford to overpay if they continue to draft as well as they have.

  • mikeak

    Two thoughts that should have been included. 1) Seattle may be able to roll over $11 million from this year which basically wipes our Sherman’s cap hit next year. 2) Russell Wilson gets an extension next year – not a new contract. So the only cap hit is a portion of the signing bonus. In other words 2015 cap looks great prior to accounting for expected increase….

    • http://www.nyjetscap.com/ Jason Fitzgerald

      The Seahawks rollover, unless they make a major cut, won’t be that high. Rookies will eat up a little over a million, the expansion of rosters to 53 around another million, practice squad around 750K, and then replacing some injured players during the year all adds up. It will still be a decent number but in the range of $7 million.

      The Seahawks can structure the extension any way they want. What they have done with Thomas and Sherman is what you are saying but they dont have to do it that way. They could have paid Sherman the $11 il signing bonus and increased his salary to $6 million on top of that if they wanted. Most teams do tinker with the salary but Seattle has not done that yet. If it was me I would have used more cap room (they still can redo the deals if they want later this year) now but as long as teams are careful with the carryover that timing does not make much of a difference.

  • NW86

    I know that they just won a SB, due to hitting the lottery on some draft picks, but they have never done well with veteran contract negotiations. They gave a ridiculous contract (and a 2nd round pick) for Percy Harvin, and to Sidney Rice before that. Now, after seeing that Seattle will pay top of the market (plus some) for good players, Russell Wilson should expect $24M/year with $60M guaranteed in his extension. If they do that, I just don’t think their model is sustainable. There’s no way they will be able to put a team around Wilson, Sherman, and Thomas (I would include Harvin but he will probably be released or renegotiated by then) in a couple years.

    • eYeDEF

      I disagree with your contention that “they have never done well with veteran contract negotiations”. When this regime first got to Seattle they had to overpay to attract free agents, like Zach Miller and Sidney Rice. That doesn’t mean they’re set to continue that trend. They certainly didn’t overpay when trying to attract free agents this year, when they were turned down from the likes of Jared Allen and Henry Melton, or last year when they got Avril and Bennett at relative bargains. Nor did they overpay this year for Bennett when they re-signed him at a relative steal considering he had a higher offer on the table by Chicago. The Percy Harvin contract hasn’t worked out well because he’s been injured, but he did contribute last year, and if he stays on the field there’s no reason to think he won’t play like the top 5 receiver that he is and prove his worth. It’s too early to judge his contract.

      Why wouldn’t it be sustainable if they continue to find starters in the draft? They don’t have to find superstars every year, but so long as they find two solid starters a year regardless of round that should be able to sustain the players that leave and go elsewhere when they become too expensive.

      • NW86

        Point taken about my first sentence, I shouldn’t have said “never”, I meant that they have had a tendency to overpay sometimes for the guys they really want. You are right that they have also had some good contracts of late.
        Regarding the sustainability – If you tie up half of your salary cap in your top 5-6 players, you can’t build a solid team around them, even if you do find 2 starters, as you mentioned, every year in the draft. That would account for about 8 players at any given time who are starting while playing under their rookie contracts, plus the 5-6 expensive guys. Then there is not much room left for retaining good veteran talent. Even if you are able to sign some decent 2nd or 3rd tier starters to complete your starting lineup, you won’t have much depth behind them, and we all know that in the NFL, the injury bug will bite eventually. I’m not saying that it will fall apart next year – just that if they keep signing their favorite players to top-of-the-market contracts, they’re going to start running into cap issues and having to make some tough decisions eventually, like most successful teams do.