Week 8 OTC FanDuel Fantasy Football Contest


After another fun week of FanDuel with the readers of the site we have another game set up for this week. The entry fee is again $2 and I’ve expanded the field to 10 teams, which hopefully we can fill.  We have it set up so it wont cancel if we fall short but it seems like there is enough interest to get to 10 teams. Top 3 teams will win prizes for the week. You can sign up up until the 1PM games kickoff.

Follow this Link for the OTC Week 8 FanDuel League 

If you have not yet signed up for FanDuel I definitely reccomend it if you are a fan of Fantasy sports and have a few extra dollars to spend. There are all kinds of weekly leagues and there is no commitment beyond the game you sign up for. I can’t say I’m very good at it, but its a great deal of fun and just getting to put together the salary capped team is very addictive.

Last week was pretty much a no contest with Shawk running out to a quick lead after the 1PM games and never looking back. Shawk’s team scored an impressive 150.9 points with a big lift coming from Golden Tate, Sammy Watkins, and Kyle Orton, three excelent value picks last week. I snuck in second again, but way behind this time at just 115.9 pts. I had a few disappointing players but none a total dud (though Delanie Walker was pretty terrible). Unfortunately only Tate broke out and you need some breakout players to win.  Etobiason came in third place kind of in the same boat I was in with no real breakout showings on the team.

Congratulations to the winners and lets see if we can keep this going for the rest of the year.

NFL Fantasy Football Week 1


I just wanted to remind everyone that with the start of the NFL season today it’s the perfect time to give FanDuel a chance and try a weekly NFL fantasy game using a salary cap format. They have free games to try out as well as games with prizes with entry fees starting as low as $1 and best of all no commitments so if you dont have the time in a week there is no need to enter.

I know there was some interest in doing an OTC fantasy league this year and unfortunately with the heavy volume of NFL transactions that kind of fell through on my end, but if enough people would like to try out FanDuel in the future we’ll see up a low cost weekly contest on their site. I’d imagine it would be open to the public, but we can keep our own standings on the site for everyone who lets me know their username for the games.

Since I didn’t get to finalize all the positions (you can read my overview of QB’s and RB’s here and here) I wanted to go over one of my week 1 rosters to give an idea of my thought process on building a team.

QB- Joe Flacco, $6,600. Flacco is the model of NFL week 1 consistency averaging just over 20 ppg over the last three years. He doesn’t have the upside of a Drew Brees or Peyton Manning but hes a fraction of the cost and I don’t want to spend a great deal on this position. If I did want to spend a fortune I would have gone with Brees, Manning or Matt Ryan.

RB1- Adrian Peterson, $9,300. Not a position you can cheap out on at all.  There are players who are more consistent than Peterson but I like the matchup this week, I like the fact that he knows hes likely playing for a contract this year, and I like the way he usually starts the season.

RB2- Reggie Bush, $7,800. Over the last three years Bush has been a top 5 performer in opening weeks and I cant imagine playing against the Giants changing that this week. I really wanted to take a Patriots running back as RB2, but Im just a little too worried about guessing wrong as to who gets the most looks. That’s a team that can change up their plans in a game too.

WR1- Demaryius Thomas, $8,700. Thomas is playing for free agency, is the best option on the team, which no longer has Eric Decker and Wes Welker, and should have a shootout environment against the Colts. Vontae Davis played well against him last year, but I expect a huge game. My other choice here was Brandon Marshall

WR2- Anquan Boldin, $6,000– Boldin is a rock star to start the NFL season and against the Cowboys defense should be a solid reasonable cost option. Always plays with a chip on his shoulder and has a good connection with his QB

WR3- Reggie Wayne, $6,200. While coming off major injury is a concern I simply can not overlook three years in a row right around 20 points per opener at this cost. I think its worth the potential risk since it lets me go higher on the RB and WR1 position.

TE- Jared Cook $5,700. This is another spot where I don’t want to waste much money for a one week game. Essentially the position boils down to matchups and in many cases surprising scores. The big guys have never been so dominant in week 1 to consider the cost so I went with Cook who may be the best option on his team matching up against a mediocre defense. My second option was Scott Chandler, who I would have used if I wanted a few more dollars to spend.

K- Sebastian Janikowski, $4,300– I don’t expect the Raiders to score many points against the Jets, but the points that they do score should come via field goal and maybe some longer ones.

Def- Jets, $5,000. Not a lot of difference in price here so I want a team with a matchup that has the upside to hold a team to low point outputs, create some turnovers, and get to a QB that has never played in an NFL.

So if you want to sign up for FanDuel simply follow the link below or click on some of the banners on the site. And circle back during the week if you want to let us know how you did in the comments either this week or next and maybe we’ll start putting some scores online. Ill let everyone know how bad my team turned out next week. Good luck playing this week.  Its certainly great to have football back.

Sign Up for FanDuel Weekly Fantasy Football.

Fantasy Football Outlook: Quarterbacks

Today will be our first look at fantasy football and my main focus is on the week 1 players available in FanDuel’s salary cap based weekly game formats. In case you missed it we are running a 100% deposit bonus, up to $200, promotion with FanDuel under the promo code OTC 100. We begin with the Quarterback Position and sometime in the next few days we’ll hit the running backs. From there will be receivers and tight ends, and we will close out with kickers and defenses before the regular season kicks off.

Week One

For week one in the NFL I like to focus on consistency for players in the first game of the season. Many players and teams are on fire in week one, seemingly year after year, while other players struggle and don’t catch their stride until week 2 and 3. For a season long playoff format we can deal with players not performing for the first week or two of the year since we need them peaking late in the season, but when we look at a weekly, fantasy format we want the best possible plays that week, not the best for the season.

The average week one expectation for the position is around 16.8 points, and in general our big stars produce the biggest points, but there are times for surprises as well. The biggest week one shocker of the last three years was Chad Henne’s 416 yard passing day back in 2011 where he also ran for 59 yards and a touchdown.

The safest play of the week, as long as there is no long term issue with his injury, is Drew Brees. Brees averages just under 25 points over the last three years in opening games and has never dropped below 21 points. He is a model of consistency. He opens the year against Atlanta who is a model of consistency in the opposite direction, allowing over 20 points to opposing quarterbacks in week 1. Brees isn’t cheap (his cap value is $9,700), but if he produces around 25 points you are paying him about $392 per point which is very reasonable for the high tier QB.

Moving into the next tier of QB I like both Colin Kaepernick ($8,500) and RGIII ($8,400). Kaepernick exploded last year against the Packers in his first game and QB’s who can run always have an advantage in week 1. His first game is in Dallas, who has been terrible defensively in opening games and in general just look to be terrible defensively on the season. RGIII has quietly averaged just under 24 points in his two week one games and they are playing a transitioning Houston team.  I think both have better value than Brees but both come with more risk.

If you want to go very low cost on the position I’d watch the Jets situation closely. If Geno Smith goes down or plays poorly enough to get replaced, Mike Vick is a steal at $7,600. You can pencil Vick in for 20+ points in week 1 if he starts. Surprisingly Jets quarterbacks have done well in week 1 the last few years with Mark Sanchez being a 20 point player in 2011 and 2012 and Smith just a shade under 18 last season.

If Vick doesn’t play I would lean on Joe Flacco at $6,600 to be my starter. Flacco is another model of consistency at just under 20 points per game in week 1, he’s home, and playing a Bengals team that gives up right around 20 points to the QB every opener. Flacco may be the best value play of the week.


3 players I would stay away from are Andy Dalton (11 ppg in last three openers), Alex Smith (16.1 ppg and up against a surprisingly good week 1 Titans defense) and Johnny Manziel (opening against Steelers).

Here are the average scores for week 1 QB’s who have played at least two games over the last three years (fumbles not counted in the scoring).

PlayerAvg. Score
Drew Brees24.70
Michael Vick24.19
Aaron Rodgers24.01
Tom Brady23.88
Matt Ryan21.66
Tony Romo21.16
Joe Flacco20.43
Eli Manning20.08
Matthew Stafford19.79
Cam Newton19.67
Jay Cutler19.23
Philip Rivers18.91
Matt Schaub16.69
Alex Smith16.11
Ben Roethlisberger13.65
Josh Freeman12.73
Sam Bradford12.40
Andy Dalton11.22
Peyton Manning32.35
Robert Griffin23.28
Mark Sanchez21.17
Ryan Fitzpatrick21.11
Andrew Luck19.59
Chad Henne18.49
Carson Palmer17.98
Russell Wilson14.31
Matt Cassel14.04
Kevin Kolb13.40
Blaine Gabbert11.72
Christian Ponder11.27
Matt Hasselbeck10.07
Ryan Tannehill9.77
Jake Locker9.28
Brandon Weeden7.89

Seasonal Outlook

While there are only a handful of true free agents coming up in 2015 there are a few potentially interesting contract situations that could have some impact on play or teams decision making

I’m not high on Alex Smith, who will be a free agent after the season, at all and I would be not think that I was getting a potential draft day steal by doubling own on two mediocre QB’s and believing that Smith has upside to surprise. If anything I would be a bit worried about him pushing things in hopes of justifying a Tony Romo/Jay Cutler style contract and putting up too many negative games.

Carson Palmer, on the other hand, I think is a much more intriguing option that could be a quality starter. The team improved their offensive line and that alone should help him cut down on interceptions. If he wants to keep playing there is no reason why he won’t be ultra prepared to get the last contract of his career and 8 digit payday of his career. He should be able to sneak into viable starter territory.

QB Cam Newton can not be happy with the lack of a contract extension in light of Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick receiving new deals. If that fact drives Newton to improvise more he should have a big fantasy year. He’ll be looking to get his rushing numbers up and spreading the ball around to help his passing stats and force Carolina into extending him at big dollar figures either during or after the season.

Rams QB Sam Bradford is essentially in a contract year, though I feel I’ve been saying that for at least two years now. I don’t think the Rams can afford to wait patiently for him, but he also has to know that all he has to show is a glimmer of hope and he could be staring at a $16 million a year plus extension based on his draft status.

Nick Foles is extension eligible after this season and would be looking at a similar deal as Dalton if he has another strong season, but I don’t know what to think about him.  The team opted to play Vick over him initially last year and if he regresses I’m not sure they would stick with him.  Last year was kind of a perfect storm for Philadelphia and their offense. I think Foles is better than his detractors think, but the Eagles are not exactly married to him yet either. The Eagles are always looking two steps ahead.

The class of 2004 are all very close to getting the final big contract of their careers. I see that being good for all three of the players. Last year Philip Rivers rebounded greatly when he knew his contract could be terminated and I’d expect similar play as he aims to earn $20 million a season. Ben Roethlisbeger is at a great comfort level in his offense and should produce as a strong lower level number 1. Eli Manning can’t be as bad as he was last season and his situation reminds me greatly of Rivers last year. The Giants have already set the market once with Eli and if he has a big season don’t be stunned if they do it again. He’s a gamble but I think he has some upside as a 2nd QB to push into 1st QB territory.

Remember you can sign up this season to play Fantasy Football at Fanduel, our partner for the 2014 season. You can find me in week 1 playing in the $5 dollar entry, 50K SUN NFL Rush league.


Announcing Partnership with FanDuel for 2014 Season


Since launching Over The Cap in February of 2013, our website has been able to attract a great (and growing) base of football fans who really are some of the most knowledgeable and diehard fans that the NFL has to offer.  OTC isn’t really a small little hidden gem in the internet anymore and I often get asked about sponsored advertising which I never felt was the best fit for the website. After all you guys come here to read about the NFL or use the various resources we have, not be hit over the head with me trying to sell you something that doesn’t really fit our audience.

But after speaking with some of the people at FanDuel and researching their product I think we now have something that not only fits with OTC but will provide you all with something that makes Sunday’s much more fun.

For those of you unfamiliar with FanDuel, it’s a really innovative fantasy football platform where you have an opportunity to compete for real money in a number of different one-week NFL fantasy football leagues. The selection process is pretty unique as teams are not built through the draft but via a salary cap style format. For all of us wannabe GM’s and salary cap managers at OTC it’s an opportunity to put our skills to the test and see just how difficult it is to build a strong team within a budget.

What’s great about FanDuel’s format is that the games are new each and every week, so you never lose hope in the fantasy season. Nothing is worse than having your big star get injured or selecting players who played well in 2013 only to see them be a dud in 2014 and then losing interest in the game by week 6.  If you make a mistake one week with FanDuel you just move on and get started on the following week’s roster.

I think this format works incredibly well for our readers. There is a lot of strategy involved with weekly matchups and valuation of players. It’ really no different than what we do on the website when we identify real bargains and busts in the NFL based on their contracts versus their performance. You get to do the same thing with FanDuel’s salary cap numbers as you try to uncover the true value plays each week that will hopefully get you some of that prize money. FanDuel will pay out over $10 million a week in prize money this year, so there are many prizes to win.

You’ll find all kinds of games at FanDuel that fit your appetite for NFL fantasy football. Do you want to challenge someone head to head in a winner take all matchup?  It’s there. Do you want to enter a league that ranges from 3 to 20 people?  No problem. FanDuel has big tournaments, 50/50 leagues, and the ability to create your own contests and challenge friends. You can play for as little as $1 per game or as much as $500 a game.  You can enter as many competitions as you like each week and you can decide what weeks you do or do not want to compete. And if you want to play for free there are free games too!

As part of this partnership, FanDuel is offering the readers of OTC a special 100% deposit bonus up to $200. To claim that offer simply click here to sign up and click the “Play Now” button which will automatically enter our OTC100 promo code to collect the bonus.

You’ll be able to find me during the season playing under the name “overthecap” (yes I know very difficult to remember). While it’s a little early in the preseason for weekly fantasy games, I have already signed up for the 50K Sun NFL Rush which costs just $5 to enter. So if you want to jump in and get the chance to finish better than me it’s a good place to start.

As part of the countdown to the regular season we’ll post on two positions each week where we look at some contract situations that could have either a positive or a negative effect on some fantasy (and real NFL) situations. As part of the partnership I’ll be trying to do a weekly fantasy post in the regular season sometime during the latter half of the week where I give some thoughts on some of the better (and worse) values for the week.

If enough people have interest in an OTC league just let me know and I’ll see about putting that together each week for at a few level that encourages participation. If not, I’ll post each week a game that I will be playing in and I’ll also link to a free weekly game for everyone who just wants to try FanDuel out.

Click Here to Sign Up for FanDuel