Stock Down: Week 7

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Every Monday during the season we will take a look back at three players who are entering important stages of their contract that may have hurt their stock in upcoming negotiations with their play on Sunday. In addition we will also look at one player signed in the offseason to a new contract that did not live up to the expectations that his contract sets for the player.

Stock Down

CJ Spiller– At this point 2012 looks as if it was a fluke campaign as Spiller is back to essentially being a nobody in Buffalo. Spiller had opportunities to trigger escalators in his contract that essentially would have pushed him into free agency this year. Coming off last season where he was arguably the second most productive back in the NFL behind Adrian Peterson Spiller was poised to make big money and follow the steps of LeSean McCoy and Ray Rice. Now he has become Darren McFadden, a one season wonder with question marks about both durability and skills. Spiller’s 6 carry 11 yard day is not even his worst of the season (he went 10 for 9 against the Jets earlier this season) marking him as a player whose stock is plummeting to below replacement level just 7 weeks into the season.

Sam Bradford– You never want to place a player in this category for injury, but unfortunately the NFL is a cold business and Bradford is probably going to feel that this upcoming offseason. The Rams had been a disappointment all year, pretty much non-competitive in all but their first game when they matched up with a decent opponent. Bradford was expected to make a big leap this season and really had not with the same questions surrounding him as often surround other talented draft picks- what if he had an offensive line and better skill players. This will be Bradford’s second extended absence from the Rams due to injury and coupled with his college injury all teams will be taking the possibility of injury into account. He is set to earn $14 million next year from the Rams, a number the injury likely takes completely out of play. He will most likely be forced into taking an incentive laden contract to prove his worth in 2014, and considering his rocky career might not earn that money back.

Darrelle Revis– This has nothing to do with Revis the player but everything to do with the situation Revis has found himself in. With the Buccaneers sitting hopeless at 0-6 and likely looking at massive organizational changes in the offseason the contract of Revis may again come into question. Revis is earning $16 million a season but has no guaranteed money in his contract, meaning the cost of releasing Revis would be $0 on the teams salary cap. Revis is arguably the best corner in the NFL, but when defensive systems are run that minimize his ability to play man up on the best player on the other side of the field he is nearly worthless. This weekend’s game where the secondary was torched by Harry Douglas just illuminated how wasted the dollars are on Revis right now. Revis makes $6 million more a year than the next highest paid corner and there are few, if any, teams that would see a fit for him at that pricetag. Most  teams simply don’t have the personnel or confidence in their personnel to allow Revis to do what he did in New York under Rex Ryan. With the team in shambles the no guarantee gamble might see the contract simply vanish this offseason. If it does he will still make great money, but I tend to think it will be about 75% of what he makes now.

New Contract Disappointment Of The Week

Tom Brady– Much was made in the offseason about Brady’s willingness to accept less than market value for the Patriots in return for receiving what should be a fully guaranteed contract through the age of 40. But Brady has not played like the Tom Brady we all expected. He has failed to complete 50% of his passes in three starts this season and only twice has been above 60%. On Sunday the Jets held him to under 48% passing and picked him off for a touchdown, Brady’s third interception in as many games. Brady is now on pace for his most interceptions since 2009 and least touchdowns in a non-injury year since 2001. This has really been the first time in his career that the loss of the passing game weapons has affected him. I’ve grown to think he was immune to that. I know the standards for Brady are higher than most but I do think it’s fair to recognize that this has not been a good season for him whatsoever.

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  • stephenldidy@me.com

    With $40mm in cap space, Revis sure would look great back in green next year. However, the only way TB cuts him loose, is if there is a regime change. How could Dominik/Schiano justify, to ownership, giving up a 1st and 3rd round draft pick and $16mm, in salary, and then just let the guy walk away for nothing. Call me crazy, and I don’t know the cap ramifications, but seems to me NO (where Ryan would know how to use him), Cincy (who just lost Joseph), NE (who needs 2ndary help), Denver (who is weak in pass D), SF (who needs a CB) and NYJ (who he might just decide it wasn’t that bad there) are all teams that could use a player of his caliber.

    • The issue is the $16 million salary. There are few teams willing to do that. If the Jets were willing they would have kept him. Denver never showed interest even though I thought it made logical sense. SF would never pay a player what Revis gets nor agree to a contract structure that Revis would like. Patriots are notorious for allowing corners to walk. I think many teams will get interested in the $11-12 mil range. Not at 16.

      • stephenldidy@me.com

        Any team that trades for him this year is only on the hook for 9 games and he has no guarantees past this year. Yes, none of these teams showed interest in him in the off-season, but that might have as much to do with his injury as it does the money. At this point in the year however, if a team felt he were the ‘missing piece’, they might be willing to part with a draft pick. If you’re SF and you think you’ll be playing a GB and Denver in the playoffs, Revis would certainly be worth some combination of the 13 picks you have next year. Personally, I think TB keeps him, because how could Dominik/Schiano possibly explain to ownership, after an abysmal season, they are letting him walk for nothing after giving away 2 high picks, and $16mm. However, if a new GM were to come in, it certainly conceivable he gets cut (because no way he stays with the team for less, especially if he’s not used correctly).

        • Anthony

          The 3rd pick becomes a 4th if they cut him, so there is some incentive for him to not be under contract next year.

          • stephenldidy@me.com

            Interesting, I didn’t know that. I think there are signs pointing to him getting out of there. He doesn’t ‘go Santonio’, but he certainly is offering some passive aggressive comments. He recently got the trademark on the phrase ‘Revis Island’. Even if TB were very good, he wouldn’t get the publicity he did in NY, where he could sell that. There is no way Domenik/Schiano survive this season. I can not see a new GM coming in and liking that contract. Sad, they have some talent there. This situation really illustrates how coaching/people management is HUGE in the NFL. They should have offered Harbaugh more….