OTC Power Rankings: Week 14

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Just a quick note for new readers that this power rankings are based on the actual points scored and points allowed by a team compared to the expected points and points allowed by their schedule. So for the Broncos you would read this as the team scored 76.5% more than their schedule has allowed in all games not involving the Broncos and that the Broncos allowed teams to score 16.5% more than their typical average. If you add those together you get an overall score. The predicted wins is based on a formula that took 10 years or so of data into account. The deviation is slightly above 1 so most teams would be expected to be within 3 games of the predicted win total.

Not many changes this week with the top 6 remaining the same. The Bengals and Cardinals both jumped the Patriots. The big movers were the Eagles and Chargers who jumped 4 and 6 spots respectively, which are jumps that are almost unheard of this late in the year.  This is the first time this season  that the Eagles are actually grading as a better team than the Cowboys who have had three lackluster games in a row.

I think it is also worth pointing out how much better the Jaguars are playing. Their results early in the season were historically bad and they have really turned things around. In real life they won’t have the number 1 pick and there is actually a chance that they might not rank as the worst in these rankings, a feat that would have seemed impossible a month ago.

Power Rankings, Week 14

RankTeamScoring
Efficiency
Defensive
Efficiency
Total
Efficiency
Predicted
Wins
1Broncos76.5%-16.3%60.3%13.6
2Seahawks23.4%30.9%54.3%13.2
3Panthers2.3%38.5%40.8%11.9
449ers9.0%31.5%40.5%11.9
5Saints17.9%20.8%38.6%11.7
6Chiefs1.4%30.5%31.9%11.0
7Bengals7.3%19.4%26.7%10.5
8Cardinals5.2%14.5%19.7%9.9
9Patriots16.3%2.7%18.9%9.8
10Eagles3.7%3.7%7.4%8.7
11Chargers-1.6%6.0%4.4%8.4
12Lions6.5%-2.4%4.1%8.4
13Dolphins-2.3%6.1%3.8%8.4
14Colts6.5%-2.7%3.7%8.3
15Cowboys10.5%-9.6%0.9%8.1
16Ravens-15.8%15.8%0.0%8.0
17Bears15.5%-16.9%-1.4%7.8
18Rams-0.2%-1.3%-1.5%7.9
19Titans-3.8%-4.1%-7.9%7.2
20Packers-3.0%-5.8%-8.8%7.2
21Buccaneers-14.7%5.3%-9.4%7.1
22Steelers-7.5%-5.6%-13.1%6.8
23Giants-23.3%3.5%-19.8%6.1
24Bills-4.2%-17.1%-21.3%6.0
25Browns-14.3%-7.4%-21.7%5.9
26Falcons2.4%-26.4%-24.0%5.7
27Vikings1.0%-28.6%-27.6%5.3
28Redskins-12.4%-20.2%-32.5%4.9
29Texans-14.7%-21.2%-36.0%4.6
30Raiders-23.6%-15.1%-38.7%4.3
31Jets-26.3%-15.2%-41.4%4.1
32Jaguars-33.8%-21.1%-54.9%2.8

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