OTC Power Rankings: Week 10

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I’ve gotten a few comments in recent weeks about the predicted records column. Just to clarify the predicted records are based on a formula I developed with 10 years or so of data. They are not predictions based on upcoming schedules (though I will look at those in the coming weeks) just projections based on efficient levels of play against standard scheduling. To calculate a maximum win prediction you basically add 3 to the number. Last year 21 teams were within 1 game of the final prediction.

This is one of the more interesting seasons I can recall. There is a giant logjam at the top with five teams within a few percentage points of each other. Then you have the Chiefs pretty high at 6 before a major drop off to a number of contenders.

The Panthers have been the fastest rising team and have officially overtaken the Chiefs as the top defenders in the NFL. These rankings have had Carolina high all year so we’ll see if they can keep it up.  There have been teams that have fallen badly but usually not this late in the year. The last one I recall was the 2008 New York Jets.  Big fallers this week were the Colts (4 spots), Titans (4 spots), and Dolphins (4 spots) while the gainers were the Rams (5 spots) and idle Patriots (4 spots). There is also a major discrepancy between the AFC and NFC. The NFC pretty much boasts the best power teams in the NFL and has 10 of the top 15 teams in the rankings.

Power Rankings, Week 10

RankTeamScoring
Efficiency
Defensive
Efficiency
Total
Efficiency
Predicted
Wins
Dollars per
Win
1Broncos72.8%-24.5%48.3%12.5$10,709,237
2Panthers1.3%43.8%45.0%12.3$9,340,559
3Seahawks17.9%25.6%43.5%12.1$11,111,644
4Saints22.7%19.7%42.4%12.0$10,334,811
549ers15.3%26.6%41.9%12.0$10,321,546
6Chiefs-8.1%41.8%33.6%11.2$11,981,609
7Patriots11.6%8.1%19.7%9.9$12,733,220
8Bengals-1.2%20.3%19.1%9.8$12,860,453
9Packers15.0%3.6%18.7%9.8$12,435,976
10Colts4.7%8.8%13.5%9.3$13,340,539
11Cowboys14.1%-0.9%13.3%9.2$12,827,241
12Lions4.3%4.6%8.9%8.8$13,591,250
13Bears20.3%-13.4%6.9%8.6$14,805,925
14Cardinals-1.4%6.3%4.8%8.5$14,343,977
15Eagles3.5%-2.4%1.2%8.1$15,963,941
16Ravens-13.0%11.0%-2.0%7.8$15,533,628
17Titans0.0%-2.0%-2.0%7.8$16,429,940
18Chargers-12.0%6.9%-5.1%7.5$16,048,440
19Rams-0.2%-5.3%-5.5%7.5$16,414,878
20Dolphins-2.6%-5.0%-7.6%7.3$15,245,706
21Browns-15.7%6.0%-9.7%7.1$15,909,801
22Bills1.0%-16.3%-15.3%6.5$17,598,352
23Redskins-0.6%-21.8%-22.5%5.8$18,497,502
24Buccaneers-25.0%2.1%-22.8%5.9$21,759,217
25Giants-23.9%0.8%-23.1%5.8$21,244,263
26Falcons1.4%-25.4%-24.0%5.7$21,100,361
27Texans-4.5%-20.5%-25.0%5.6$22,128,028
28Steelers-19.0%-9.2%-28.1%5.3$23,111,708
29Jets-16.5%-15.4%-31.9%5.0$25,113,704
30Vikings0.9%-33.6%-32.7%4.9$26,736,371
31Raiders-32.1%-9.4%-41.4%4.1$30,398,051
32Jaguars-41.0%-32.9%-73.8%1.0$100,000,000