OTC NFL Power Rankings: Week 9

We have the updated standings now online for the NFL Power Rankings. Again these are rankings that simply measure a teams actual scoring performance versus their expected scoring performance based on strength of schedule. So if a teams scoring efficiency is at 11.5% it means they score 11.5% more points, on average, than expected.  This week saw a bit of a shuffle in the top 5 with the Jets no-show in Oakland dropping them out while the Packers loss to Denver did the same.The Patriots have been a runaway train so far in 2015 and that continued with their beatdown on Thursday of the Dolphins. They are over 30% higher than their next closest competitiors which are the extremely well balanced Bengals and the more offensive minded Cardinals. The Patriots currently project to win 15.5 games and the other two are around 12. enver’s impressive performance really boosted their numbers and pushed them to second in defensive efficiency(behind the Rams), which I think most would say seems pretty logical given the talent on that side of the ball.


The 49ers benched their starting QB and the numbers make that an easy case to make. The scoring efficiency is 34.9% below expected points. To put that in perspective the 31st ranked team is as -24.3%. So it’s not as if their offense is just somewhat ineffective, its multiple levels below expected production.

There were more coaching shakeups this week. The Colts fired their offensive coordinator which makes some sense since they are at a -9.4% scoring efficiency, which is 23rd in the NFL. That team traditionally feasted on bad teams, specifically in their division, but that hasnt been the case this year and they have fallen badly.

The Titans fired their head coach after another dismal start. Every year they do poorly in these rankings and this year is no different, though they have held teams down to give their offense a chance. The problem is the offense has been terrible with a -23.9% output. Given the coach is an offensive guy you can understand the displeasure in Tennessee even if it was a hasty move.

Finally Detroit debuted their new offense and the result was the team crashing to the bottom of these rankings. Their offense is at a -12.8% and the defense at a -35.8%. You could make an argument that they are the worst run team in the NFL and they need to get their contracts in order and find a much better coaching staff this time around.

OTC NFL Power Rankings, Thru Week 8

TeamScoring EfficiencyDefensive EfficiencyTotal EfficiencyPred Wins
Patriots64.1%15.6%79.6%15.5
Bengals25.7%21.8%47.4%12.5
Cardinals37.0%6.5%43.5%12.1
Broncos-0.9%32.4%31.5%11.0
Panthers11.7%15.8%27.4%10.6
Jets5.9%19.8%25.7%10.4
Packers14.4%10.5%24.9%10.4
Falcons14.7%8.6%23.3%10.2
Steelers-5.9%28.3%22.4%10.2
Eagles-3.1%23.7%20.6%10.0
Chiefs13.0%-2.1%10.9%9.0
Bills9.0%1.3%10.3%9.0
Rams-24.3%32.9%8.5%8.9
Seahawks-9.9%18.0%8.2%8.8
Saints23.6%-15.5%8.1%8.7
Raiders7.5%-5.6%1.9%8.2
Colts-9.3%5.4%-3.9%7.6
Vikings-22.5%16.3%-6.1%7.5
Cowboys-18.3%9.5%-8.8%7.2
Ravens6.9%-15.5%-8.5%7.2
Giants13.1%-22.3%-9.2%7.1
Dolphins-6.9%-3.0%-9.9%7.1
Redskins-6.1%-4.1%-10.2%7.0
Titans-23.9%10.8%-13.1%6.8
Browns-3.2%-15.1%-18.2%6.2
Texans-10.6%-12.4%-23.0%5.8
Chargers4.5%-29.0%-24.5%5.6
Bears-8.5%-23.9%-32.4%4.9
Jaguars-13.8%-22.1%-35.9%4.6
Buccaneers-9.2%-29.1%-38.3%4.3
49ers-34.9%-11.6%-46.5%3.6
Lions-12.8%-35.8%-48.6%3.4
  • McGeorge

    The Jets played so poorly on defense against the Raiders I almost want to cry. They need to earn their power ranking spot back. And please god let Fitzpatrick come back. It makes me sick and sad to watch Geno, even if he has an ok game, because of the constant threat of mental errors like needless sacks (throw it away) and taking hits from safeties (rather than stepping out of bounds).