NFL Power Rankings, Week 16

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I’m a bit short on time this week so no real commentary on the rankings. If you have any questions feel free to ask in the comments and Ill try to get back to you on it.

NFL Power Rankings, Through Week 15

RankChangeTeamScoring EfficiencyDefensive EfficiencyTotal EfficiencyProjected Wins
1Patriots47.9%12.8%60.7%13.7
2Broncos44.6%2.6%47.3%12.4
3Packers38.3%-1.6%36.7%11.4
4Colts34.2%1.3%35.5%11.3
5Seahawks8.1%24.6%32.8%11.1
6Ravens13.0%16.5%29.5%10.8
7Eagles33.2%-10.8%22.4%10.1
8+2Bills-1.9%21.8%19.9%9.9
9Chiefs3.4%15.8%19.3%9.8
10+1Cardinals-8.1%23.9%15.8%9.5
11-3Dolphins7.6%8.1%15.7%9.5
12Lions-14.9%26.5%11.5%9.1
13+3Cowboys16.4%-6.9%9.5%8.9
14+1Steelers19.8%-11.6%8.2%8.7
15-1Texans-4.6%12.3%7.7%8.7
16+2Bengals-5.3%12.4%7.1%8.7
17-4Chargers-0.1%6.1%5.9%8.6
18-1Rams-4.3%2.1%-2.2%7.8
19+1Saints13.6%-19.2%-5.6%7.4
20+1Vikings-16.0%8.3%-7.7%7.3
21+149ers-21.9%12.4%-9.5%7.1
22+2Giants-1.0%-8.8%-9.9%7.0
23Falcons8.6%-18.8%-10.2%7.0
24-5Browns-17.6%6.0%-11.6%6.9
25Panthers-13.3%-7.1%-20.3%6.1
26Bears-7.6%-26.4%-34.0%4.8
27Jets-26.9%-12.4%-39.3%4.3
28Redskins-20.2%-21.8%-42.0%4.0
29Buccaneers-24.6%-18.6%-43.2%3.9
30+2Jaguars-35.7%-11.6%-47.3%3.5
31-1Raiders-26.7%-22.8%-49.5%3.3
32-1Titans-28.7%-21.8%-50.5%3.2

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  • olsonjeffery

    Is there a blog post or some other page that discusses the methodology behind the various efficiency percentages in this ranking?

    • I think I explain it in http://overthecap.com/2014-nfl-power-rankings-week-6/ but the gist of it is comparing how much a team scores/gives up compared to their individual schedule average (adjusted to remove games against the team).

      So for the Pats you would read it that they are scoring 47.9% more than the average team did against their opponent and hoding teams 12.8% below their usual scoring output. The predicted wins was a model I developed from something like 8-10 years of data.