Looking at the Potential NFL Playoff and Draft Seedings…

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With the season ending in a few days I thought I’d have a little fun with some of the scenarios and come up with my own odds for playoff seeds and draft pick status. These predictions are solely based on point spreads and end of season historical results within +/-1 on the spread over the last 20 years. The data sets were based on Pro Football References historical point spreads. We are not considering ties in any scenario since they are pretty rare.

So as an example looking at the Steelers/Bengals matchup, historically a team favored similarly to the Steelers by Vegas has won about 62% of the time and 61% of the time at home.  I’ll average the two numbers and use that when I generate various scenarios. The table headers should be sortable by clicking on them.

AFC Playoffs

Team123456
Patriots100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Broncos0.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Bengals0.0%3.3%35.1%0.0%61.5%0.0%
Steelers0.0%0.0%61.5%0.0%38.5%0.0%
Colts0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
Chargers0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%35.4%
Chiefs0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.9%
Ravens0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%53.5%
Texans0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%9.2%

In general this seems like a pretty uneventful race. I cant say for certain if the lines I used in the Chiefs/Chargers game was adjusted for the insertion of Chase Daniel as starting QB. The big negative for the Chargers in the game is that the home team in close to pick em games has a very high win percentage at the end of the year, which leaves the Ravens with a very strong chance at making it.

 NFC Playoffs

123456
Seahawks82.9%0.0%13.6%0.0%3.5%0.0%
Cowboys0.0%13.6%86.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Packers14.5%70.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%15.0%
Lions2.0%12.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%85.0%
Cardinals0.5%3.0%0.0%0.0%96.5%0.0%
Panthers0.0%0.0%0.0%38.5%0.0%0.0%
Falcons0.0%0.0%0.0%61.5%0.0%0.0%

These is almost no drama at all in the NFC playoff race. The Seahawks are a dominant favorite for the 1 seed, the Packers for the 2, and the Cowboys the 3. Overall the entire week 17 playoff race is kind of a dud in both conferences and I cant recall the last time week 17 seemed to have almost no drama.

NFL Draft

Team123456
Buccaneers69.4%30.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Titans30.6%69.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Jaguars0.0%0.0%83.2%1.7%7.0%8.1%
Jets0.0%0.0%13.0%64.6%8.0%14.3%
Raiders0.0%0.0%3.5%29.3%61.2%6.0%
Redskins0.0%0.0%0.2%4.3%23.9%71.6%

As Ive been saying for some time- the Bucs are in a dominant position to take the number 1 overall pick. It would take a win in week 17 and  loss by Tennessee to lose their position. The Jaguars should be the 3 seed and that seems to be the safest bet of the lot. If the Jets by some chance win expect them to end up at number 6.  Washington’s best chance to move up comes with a Jets win.

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  • McGeorge

    The Jets really hurt their draft position by beating the Titans. They should have started Matt Simms.

    • Tyler Ferree

      So long as they come away with cooper i’m happy (with essentially no foundation i’m not going to even look at drafting a QB high) since this draft is going to be deep in the trenches (again) getting a future left tackle to take over for brick after 2015 and play on the right side this year can be done in the second or third round.