Grading the Round 1 Trades

With all the trades going down in the first round I thought it might be fun to look at them from a financial perspective and use the draft charts I posted the other day as a scoring metric. The one difference is that I multiplied the scores by 100 to make it easier to read. Pro Bowl percentages were based on either blocks of 5, 10, or 20 players depending on what round a selection was made. I didn’t really go too crazy with that aspect so take it with a grain of salt.

Dolphins vs Raiders

 

Dolphins

Raiders

Salary

$20,572,310

$15,118,549

Salary Per Year

$20,572,310

$7,559,275

Guarantees

$20,572,310

$13,218,810

Score

1759.3

1936.9

Multi PB

48.6%

49.3%

 

There seems to be a feeling that the Raiders got fleeced in this trade but I just don’t see it. The odds of finding a multi time Pro Bowler between 10 and 15 is not much different than finding one in the top 5 and you throw in a second rounder with close to 14% probability and the trade is basically even. Oakland reduced their guarantees by almost $7 million making failure much easier to digest, especially since the 12th pick should have offsets for his guarantees. I’d call this a slight edge to the Raiders due to  the significant cost reduction.

Rams vs Bills

 

Rams

Bills

Salary

$15,669,002

$18,252,242

Salary Per Year

$7,834,501

$4,563,060.50

Guarantees

$13,399,002

$12,056,379.00

Score

1880.2

2280.2

Multi PB

38.0%

30.3%

 

Because this trade involved more picks the Bills did little to reduce their guaranteed salaries and overall actually added total salary to the team. From a financial standpoint this is nearly a wash and if anything favors the Rams. The players the Bills picked up are not expected to be big contributors and there are significant enough differences in the high level reward to where the Rams have a much better chance at finding a stud than the Bills and for only $1.4 million or so more in guarantees. I’d call this for the Rams and pretty decisively.

49’ers vs Cowboys

 

49ers

Cowboys

Salary

$8,480,758

$9,926,802

Salary Per Year

$8,480,758

$4,963,401

Guarantees

$7,700,026

$6,147,678

Score

1051.0

1328.3

Multi PB

22.9%

22.8%

 

This is probably the most even trade in the draft. The Cowboys, due to their salary cap woes, are in a position where they need cheap bodies and they get an extra pick by trading down, maintaining their player costs while improving overall returns. If Dallas holds their pick and replaces the 74h pick with an UDFA the total costs is the same but the expected performance would basically be the 1051 score for the original draft choice. Dallas maintains the same basic chance of finding a higher level player between the two selections. This is an even deal that fits both sides needs perfectly.

Falcons vs Rams

 

Falcons

Rams

Salary

$8,166,092

$11,984,946

Salary Per Year

$8,166,092

$3,994,982

Guarantees

$7,406,813

$6,286,305

Score

971.70

1358.39

Multi PB

20.8%

23.3%

 

Another very close value trade. The Rams likely increased their overall costs of a draft pick and two UDFA’s, but reduced their guaranteed responsibilities by making the trade. The Falcons should get the better player though the Rams should pick up two solid players. I would say the Rams come out slightly ahead due to the chance of finding a Pro Bowler and the slight reduction of costs, though again you could say that this suits both sides well.

Vikings vs Patriots

 

Vikings

Patriots

Salary

$7,221,060

$11,381,603

Salary Per Year

$7,221,060

$2,845,400

Guarantees

$5,831,370

$2,781,831

Score

862.5

1480.1

Multi PB

17.70%

13.30%

 

I said during the draft that the Patriots got great value for the pick but I think I read too much into the number of picks they received rather than the spot where the picks were coming from. New England clearly traded off the reward of the 1st round pick for financial flexibility. Though the total score is significantly higher that score includes two picks that would be considered below average, one of whom is not much better than a UDFA. Scoring this depends on what you think of the guarantees to get the higher pro bowl options as the cost is significant. I’d probably lean towards the Patriots getting the better deal but I don’t think its too much in their favor.

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