I know we have a great deal of Raiders fans that come to the site and I wanted to post this link to Joel Corry’s piece on the Raiders cap history and overview of the mess that they have been in. It is a fascinating read detailing the start of the Raiders issues with the loss of Jon Gruden and eventual replacement of all the football folks that had been in charge and finishing up with the final roster purge of this season.

I’ve long maintained that the Raiders are a team that every single person who really wants to learn about the salary cap should study in detail because they are a poster child of  how not to manage an organization, not just in the NFL but any business or even personal life. This piece really presents an overview that everyone should read.

I tend to think Oakland’s problems are more prominent than those of the Cowboys and Panthers, two other teams that should be studied, in part because they went from being extremely successful under Gruden to completely irrelevant in almost the blink of an eye. The Raiders were arguably the best team in the NFL in 2001 and did make the Super Bowl under Bill Callahan in 2002. Since that time they have not been to the playoffs nor have they had a winning season. Its incredible to see a team stumble so badly.

The only team with a longer non-playoff streak is the Buffalo Bills (last appearance was 1999, incredible by today’s standards to go so long). The Cleveland Browns (an expansion team returning to the NFL in 2000) has the same drought as the Raiders. The Browns did post a 10 win season and not make the playoffs in 2007. The Bills have always been considered a cheap team, but the Raiders spent like there was no tomorrow.

The Raiders have also played in one of the weaker divisions in the NFL, the only division in the NFL to produce no Super Bowl representatives since the Raiders appearance in Super Bowl XXXVII. The next closest divisions in terms of representation were the  NFC North, NFC South, and AFC South, each of which have twice sent teams to the Super Bowl. The last Super Bowl win by the AFC West came in 1998 when the Broncos defeated the Falcons.

So it is hard to imagine a team going so long, with that kind of payroll, in that division and in a league now designed to give everyone a chance, without  the playoffs especially coming off such a good three year period of football. I’m not sure if it is a feat that can be duplicated again though there are a few teams dangerously following a cap model that could lead to similar results down the line.

On the bright side this will be an opportunity to study a complete rebuild of a franchise in the cap era. The Raiders dont have high draft picks. There is no great QB on the horizon this year like an Andrew Luck. There are no left over really good pieces like Reggie Wayne to help someone. Its not even an expansion team being given the opportunity to take decent players off cap strapped teams. This is a pure ground floor building process. As Joel points out Reggie McKenzie, the Raiders GM, does not come from a system that spends wildly on players hoping for a quick fix so it is doubtful they go the full blown free agency route to build a squad which makes this a team that is going to be built by smart drafting and the wise selection of reasonably priced, but solid, free agents. It could be something unique to watch unfold.

View Joel Corry’s Piece on the Raiders

The post Thoughts on Joel Corry’s Great Take on the Oakland Raiders appeared first on Over the Cap.

Since I started writing posts here on OverTheCap.com, I have rarely, if ever, written about my beloved New York Jets. Jason does an incredible job covering every move the team makes, so there is never anything to add. However, with the Jets set to entertain a quarterback controversy (…again), I want to take a minute and write about a scenario the Jets may be facing, the question of what to do with Mark Sanchez if he isn’t the starting quarterback next year.

As we all know, the Jets quarterback situation isn’t exactly stellar and so the team is set to host a competition for the starting job come training camp. With the abrupt retirement of David Gerrard, we are left with two realistic options to win the job, incumbent Mark Sanchez and touted rookie Geno Smith (no, I don’t count Greg McElroy). In terms of skill, the competition could go either way. Nobody quite knows what the Jets have in Smith just yet, and there’s an argument to be made new Jets coordinator Marty Mornhinweg’s offense is as best a fit for Sanchez as any scheme he’s been in since entering the league in 2009. It wouldn’t shock me if either one outperformed the other come camp. For purposes of this post, let’s assume Geno Smith wins the job and is under center against Revis and company on September 8th. At this point, you’d have voices screaming from every direction as to how handle Sanchez.

There are really two ways the team could go here. The first option is to keep Sanchez on the roster as Smith’s backup. Many would say he’s a better backup then the free agent scrap heaps that remain, and that’s certainly a fair statement. But, if Sanchez remained on the roster all year and wasn’t the starting quarterback, it could create a headache that no one needs. If Smith succeeds, we’re sure to get many camera shots of Sanchez looking glum on the sidelines during games. If Smith struggles, we’ll certainly read a ton of stories about Sanchez looking over Smith’s back, ready to pounce on the job before Smith could truly grab it. I’m sure we’ll even hear how Sanchez looks like a new man in practice, much like we heard during camp last season. This is not the route I would take, but you can certainly understand where people are coming from who would argue Sanchez is the best option as a backup QB. The other option would be to release (or potentially trade) Sanchez prior to the season’s commencement and either sign a new backup or roll with McElroy or someone else competing during camp. I feel confident in saying thiis the choice many Jets fans would prefer. However, whenever you hear talk of Sanchez’ release, you always hear the cap “experts” on TV say it’s, “not a possibility based on the Jets cap situation.”

If you were to listen only to the folks on ESPN, it would quite honestly be a reasonable assumption that the Jets were doomed to go 1-15 next year (hell, let’s say 0-16 for the next decade, just for fun) solely due to cap issues. However, if you’re a reader of this website, you know that the Jets cap issues were vastly overstated.  If you want to argue the Jets aren’t a good team based on talent issues, that’s fine. But to say the team is in “cap hell” shows a lack of homework on the part of the speaker. The team made the no-brainer moves of releasing unproductive players that yielded high cap savings, guys such as Bart Scott, Calvin Pace, Eric Smith and Jason Smith. Of course these savings were not contemplated by the people reporting these issues. These releases saved the team nearly $30 million in cap room (Jason Smith saved $12 million alone!).

Back to Sanchez. Again, we are assuming Geno Smith is the team’s starting quarterback at this point and the team wants to release or trade Sanchez. What are the cap implications? Well, let’s say he’s released out of the blue today. The Jets would suffer a dead money hit on their 2013 salary cap of $17,653,125.  This consists of his guaranteed base salary, workout bonuses, and accelerated signing bonus prorations. However, it’s currently May 20th, Smith hasn’t done anything except look decent in rookie minicamp and Sanchez remains on the roster. It is very doubtful right now that Sanchez is getting released prior to June 1st, so lets look at the implications if he’s released after June 1st. As Jason has thoroughly explained on the site before, a June 1st cut spreads out the dead money hit Sanchez would cost the team. If Sanchez were cut after June 1st, the Jets would suffer a 2013 cap hit of $12,853,125 from his guaranteed base salary, 2013 signing bonus proration and $500k workout bonus. The Jets would then suffer a $4.8 million dead money hit in 2014 due to the acceleration of his bonus proration in 2015 and 2016 (on top his 2014 proration). Either way, the Jets are suffering the same cap hit, it’s just a matter of when.

Now, let’s just go back to the Jets salary cap for a second. The team has an estimated $11,743,505 in cap space for 2013 (which includes Sanchez’ 2013 hit of $12,853,125). Additionally, this includes those draft pickss that are signed, but does not include the estimates for those who remain unsigned (The Jets 2013 cap number for all draft picks is an estimated $6,916,58). If the Jets cut Sanchez today, another chunk of $4.8 million eats into that space (that $4.8 million is from his accelerated bonus proration). So, could the Jets release Sanchez today and absorb the full hit? Yes, they could. It wouldn’t leave them with much room at all though, and they still need to account for signing a new backup (if they don’t stick with McElroy or someone else on the roster) and any injury replacements. It would be tough to swallow, but it’s theoretically possible. As mentioned above though, if the Jets do release Sanchez, it would likely be as a June 1st cut where his cap hit would be spread over this year and next. If this happens, the estimated cap space listed above wouldn’t change; Sanchez’ 2013 hit would be the same as if he were here (the Jets would then just suffer the $4.8 million hit in 2014).No matter which way you look at it, the cap situation isn’t 100% stopping the Jets from making the move.

Many people would scream, “Why would the Jets suffer a 2013 cap hit to release Sanchez that’s at the very least, equal to the amount the Jets would suffer if Sanchez were on the roster?” Very reasonable question. It’s definitely not the most financially prudent move in the world. But, the benefits from other places may outweigh the negatives suffered from the financial imprudence. Despite all the numbers and cap figures thrown around, this is still, you know, a football team (I know, hard to believe sometimes). There are other considerations besides those numbers and cap figures. It’s not going to be financially sound regardless of what the Jets decide to do. Aside from the options I listed above regarding his release, Sanchez will either be an extremely high-paid backup that will be a constant distraction (through no fault of his own – Sanchez likely would play the good soldier), or, if traded, the Jets suffer a hit on their cap anyway due to covering part of his salary AND for the bonus proration that would accelerate into 2013 (similar to Revis’ prorated bonus amounts accelerating in 2013 due to the trade). There is simply no escaping a significant salary cap commitment to Mark Sanchez right now, but there IS escaping the media and locker room headache that comes with it. The Jets are clearly not sold on Sanchez progressing to where they need him to be, they wouldn’t have spent a second round pick on a quarterback if they were. There are available ways out of the Sanchez situation, we’ll see if the team decides to take any.

Twitter: AndrewOTC

Check out Mark Sanchez’ contract page here.

The post My take on what the Jets should do with Mark Sanchez (if he’s not the starting QB) appeared first on Over the Cap.

I think my voice was a bit better this week though Im still getting killed by allergies. This week we touch on your questions about the Jets, Redskins, Lions and the best and worst free agent signings of the year. Our link for itunes is at the top of the page and if you have any issues listening just leave a note in the comments.

Download Podcast

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With training camp just a short time away we will be turning our attention more towards potential extensions of pending free agents. One of the most prominent, and currently in the early stages of negotiating a deal, is QB Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons.

Ryan is almost the perfect prospect. He was highly regarded coming out of Boston College, selected 3^rd overall in the 2008 NFL Draft. He has been to the playoffs in 4 of his 5 seasons in  the NFL and the only year his team missed the playoffs was his second year when he was injured and missed two games, both of which the Falcons lost. His record as a starter is an impressive 56-22 and only once has he not finished with double digit wins. From a statistical standpoint he is an incredible QB and his numbers have shown a steady progression in his time in the NFL.

I don’t think that it’s even arguable that he is the best QB drafted since 2006 and in terms of being effective since day 1 you might be able to state the case that he is the best QB drafted since Tom Brady in 2001 and the best 1^st round player since Peyton Manning  in 1998. Obviously that discussion includes Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Ben Roethlisberger, but in terms of playing at a high level from the start he is going to be better than Manning and Roethlisberger and was as high end statistically accomplished as Rodgers in the same time frame.

Of course the one thing missing from Ryan’s resume that all of those players have is a championship. It is going to be a major factor in pricing Ryan. I think the NFL has changed a lot since the early 2000’s when Peyton was always higher regarded and paid than Brady as the debate ranged between how one guy “just wins” and the other puts up great numbers. Since then, however, winning the big one has catapulted QBs into a game of leapfrog where each players new deal becomes the largest contract in the history of the NFL. Roethlisberger set a market after winning a Super Bowl. Eli jumped him and was then in turn jumped by Brady and Manning who were jumped by Drew Brees. Joe Flacco set a new bar fresh off his Super Bowl win while Aaron Rodgers then set the new threshold soon thereafter.

The problem for Ryan is that none of these players have gotten paid before winning a Super Bowl. So where does that leave Ryan who would like to get an extension now but also does not want to sell himself short?  He absolutely has the potential to be as good statistically, especially in that stadium, as Rodgers. But Rodgers has a ring and Ryan does not. Statistically you can not even compare Ryan and Flacco, but Flacco has great playoff success while Ryan is 1-4.  So it becomes a scenario as to how much do we value playoff success versus non-playoff success.

The top QB contracts in recent times given to non-winners were Mike Vick in 2011, Matt Schaub in 2012, and Tony Romo in 2013.  While those are the most fresh contracts in everyone’s mind I don’t think any would be valid here. All were past the age of 30 at the time of signing and had no upside remaining in their games. The best QB comparison out there is Philip Rivers of the San Diego Chargers. Rivers was the other big name of the 2004 draft class, the one who never won a championship.

Unlike Ryan he sat for two years, but once he finally got his chance he ran with it. Rivers first three years playing saw him surpass both Manning and Roethlisberger in a number of standard statistical categories. From 2006 thru 2008 here were the stat comparisons of the 3 star QB’s:

Rivers was throwing for more yards, far more touchdowns, and much fewer interceptions. In 2008, the year before his extension, Rivers actually led the entire NFL in YPA and TD’s. Over the timespan Rivers won 33 games compared to 30 for Manning and 29 for Roethlisberger. Rivers’ Chargers won their division three years in a row. But he didn’t have that Super Bowl, compiling a record of 3-3 and losing as a favorite in the playoffs.

Rivers looked like he should be the biggest star of the group and his production was far greater than Eli’s. But that SB ring means a lot. Manning ended up setting the market at $16.25 million a year while Rivers would sign soon for $15.3 million a year, about 6% less. Rivers was given a higher guarantee but had lower 3 and 4 year contractual values than both the Super Bowl winners making the meat of the contract worth less than that of his two contemporaries.

Rivers would go on to a number of exceptional seasons before the wheels seemed to come off starting in 2011, but he has yet to be able to win the big game. Manning won another Super Bowl and Roethlisberger appeared in yet another one.  The comparison of the 3 seems silly now because two are proven winners while Rivers has struggled and never got over the hump. Manning and Roethlisberger will likely both get mega contracts next season from their respective teams while there are questions as to whether or not Rivers will even remain in San Diego.

I think this brings up an interesting decision for Ryan. Manning’s and Roethlisberger’s original Super Bowl wins allowed them to become market setters at the position. Rodgers’ $22 million dollar extension he recently signed is now the top of the market and it had to be a disappointing figure for Ryan. Rodgers was so superior the last two years that he should have earned closer to $24 million a year considering Flacco’s $20.1 million dollar a year contract.  At that point I think it becomes easy. You sell Rodgers as the top line young winner and Flacco as the lower level setter and you fit in at the Rivers level, which would be around $22.4 million. Now if you put Rodgers as Eli and Ryan as Rivers the contract point becomes $20.57 million a year, assuming no concessions are made for Rodgers per game incentives which only lowers the number further. That has to be much lower than Ryan thought would happen.

Now to maximize his value I think Ryan is in a position where he has to sell Rodgers as a number to try to surpass. While many think of Rodgers as young he will be 30 at the end of the season and this will be his 9^th year in the NFL. Its something of a limbo stage for comparison as he’s not really young but he’s also not early 30s like Brees, Manning, and Brady were when they jumped Eli in contract value.  But to get the number that Ryan probably felt he was going to get just a month or two ago he has to push using Rodgers as a baseline not a high point.

Of course to do that Ryan is going to have to play out the year and then try to force the Falcons hand in a negotiation. Ryan has a lot to gain by winning a Super Bowl before his extension. While I fully believe (and deeper stats do back this up) that Rodgers is a more productive QB than Ryan, it could be hard to separate the two if Ryan keeps up his current pace especially factoring in that Ryan is the younger player. Atlanta’s whole team is built around Ryan and his arm and, unlike the Lions and Matt Stafford, another player up for a deal, has been highly successful year in and out.

Playing the year out certainly brings along risks. The biggest is injury and as Jerry Maguire warned Rod Tidwell in the movies all those years ago “If you get injured you get nothing”. But at the QB position is that as much of a concern is it for a RB or a WR?  Probably not. QB’s are protected more than any other player and they are also not playing in the same manner that is as likely to lead to random injuries. And even if the injury was to occur would it damage the players earning potential?  I don’t think so. Carson Palmer blew out his knee in 2005 but the Bengals never walked away from his monster contract. Tom Brady had the knee injury in 2008 and ended up as one of the highest paid players in the game. Peyton Manning was signed to a mega deal while injured, missed the year, was cut and signed for an even bigger deal with another team. Even Rivers had a torn ACL in 2007 that he played through and he came back in 2008 to have the big deal that got him the big contract. The injuries had very little effect on the treatment of the players, outside of an injury protection for Manning that could have been avoided had he signed with the Titans. It’s a built in premium that teams are willing to pay.

The secondary risk lies in the application of the Franchise Tag. For the most part the tag never really happens as teams do want to keep the QB happy , but this still has to be a consideration. Atlanta’s cap situation in 2014 looks to be healthy with around $103 million committed to the 2014 salary cap and a whole roster that is filled other than at QB. The ballpark figure for a QB on the tag is going to be about $15 million with the exclusive tender coming in at $19.978 million and likely headed downward by the time next season is actually here.  So for one season they can tag Ryan and work within the cap without too much issue. If Ryan goes that route he is going to play this year for $10 million and next for less than $20, which is only an average of $15 million. In contrast Aaron Rodgers will earn $50.9 million over the next two years and Flacco $51 million. Even Romo’s $40 million payout will be far superior to Ryan’s. You can definitely damage your long term earnings taking this strategy as the extra million or two a year may not going to make up for lost wages over the next two.

Ryan’s cap hit this year is low so the Falcons don’t really have a need to get a deal done. This isn’t like the Ravens who basically could not afford to carry Flacco on a franchise tag type number.  That being said the Falcons are tight against the salary cap now and getting Ryan extended in 2013 probably helps their cap allocations over the next few years, but they can hold off if the two sides are far apart on compensation. So Atlanta might be willing to play it out as well.

Ryan has little to lose by playing and I think much to gain if he can get his team to the Super Bowl. I just don’t see the risks impacting his value greatly and his track record is so solid that at worst his value will remain the same.  There is also the chance that Manning or Roethlisberger can jump Rodgers next year as their teams may be forced to extend due to cap concerns, making the market even more lucrative than it is now.

At the worst he will be in the same position he is now. Even if he signed an extension now remember that his $10 million salary is going to be built into the contract (the new vs old money debate in contract valuations) so he is stuck at that salary being factored in under any scenario. Signing today doesn’t change that. I truly feel that if he wins a championship a strong case can and will be made that he deserves to be the highest paid player in the NFL. He can’t make that argument right now. All things considered I think his is a rare situation where you are better off playing out the year than accepting a deal that you may regret in another year or two.

The post The Options for Falcons QB Matt Ryan appeared first on Over the Cap.

I plan on doing another Podcast tomorrow night so if you have any questions feel free to email me, tweet or DM me or post them here and Ill try to touch on them. So far I know Ill talk a little Redskins and probably touch on suspensions and some of the rookie deals that could see some hangups before signing.

The post Send your Questions for the Podcast appeared first on Over the Cap.

I just wanted to link to an article I wrote going over some thoughts on the Jets front office and some of the misconceptions about the teams salary cap at times over the past few years. Its hosted on my other site and goes into the reasons why often having strong context to a cap report is extremely important for us to discuss those situations.

LINK: Final Thoughts on the Jets Old Front Office

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Brian McIntyre of Shutdown Corner has reported that the Carolina Panthers have restructured the contract of RB DeAngelo Williams, saving themselves $3.2 million in cap space in 2013.Mac has all the particulars in his deal, but the cliff notes version is that the Panthers will give Williams a $4 million dollar bonus this year and have reduced his overall cash takehome from $18 million to $10 million over the next 3 seasons.

It’s a move that I cant really understand. While this will bring Williams’s salary back in the line with the market in terms of cash value, his cap charges remain around the top 10 in the NFL for the next 3 seasons due to the large bonuses he was paid when the Panther signed him to that ill-advised contract in 2011. Williams only played in around 43% of the Panthers offensive snaps last season and seemed to be the doghouse of the team. While our statistical analysis of the position indicated that Williams may be hurt by lack of talent and opportunity as much as anything, it is hard to imagine him becoming a larger part of the offense without wholesale changes on the team.

In general the Panthers have been one of the worst managed salary cap franchises in the NFL since 2011. That isn’t the fault of the current regime but moves like this seem to make it worse. Taking a page from the book of the Cowboys the Panthers added two void seasons onto Williams’ contract for the sake of reducing cap charges in 2013, but increasing dead money throughout the life of the deal. They used a similar mechanism with LT Jordan Gross.

Under his prior contract Williams could have been cut after the 2013 season with $6.4 million in dead money on the books. He would have cost the Panthers $14.6 million in cap charges between this years salary and next years dead money had they played the contract out. The dead money under his new deal in 2014 is $9.6 million, so if they decide to cut ties with him next season it will be considered a net neutral cap move provided that they dont spend the $3.2 in savings they received from him this year. Alternatively the Panthers could have designated him a June 1 cut this year and saved the team $5 million in cash and cap dollars over the next two seasons.

Williams will be 31 next season so a release should still be considered a strong possibility, which is why I dislike moves like this. If they need the cap relied there has to be a better player that a team can do this with to at least give the team some longer term benefit. If they release Williams next year they receive no benefit and get nothing but bad press for a $9.6 million dead hit on a player that the staff does not seem to want to utilize. Dead money figures that high can also cloud judgement about a players position on the roster and at this point the Panthers have essentially pre-paid almost all of his contract.Williams is due a $1 million dollar option bonus according to McIntyre in 2015. There is almost no chance of that happening so if Williams makes it that far he will count $5.6 million in dead money against the cap in 2014.

View DeAngleo Williams Salary Cap Page

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Yesterday Brian Costello of the NY Post had a piece discussing starting rookie Geno Smith over battered starter Mark Sanchez and focusing instead on Smith and the future. It’s a great piece with an interesting comparison between Sanchez and the Mets Oliver Perez, but it also got me to think about reasons why teams in a situation like the Jets should start a rookie quarterback.

We all know that the NFL is a QB driven league. For the most part teams with above average QB play are the teams going to the playoffs. In my opinion 8 teams that made the playoffs last season had high level QB play and at least 3 more had passable play.  Teams with sustained success typically have very good QB play. Maybe Sanchez can be a passable QB, but most likely he has no chance of having that happen in NY, especially on a team under a major roster overhaul. The Jets need to assess what they have moving forward at the position.

While in the NFL you never say never, most people do not give the Jets a chance at making a real run at the playoffs. Most would rate the Jets as one of the worst 5 teams in the NFL, with some saying it was the least talented roster in the NFL. I’d disagree with that latter statement but on paper this does not look like a good football team. The odds are higher that the Jets end up with the number 1 pick in the draft than raising a Super Bowl trophy above their heads this year.

The 2013 draft was a poor group of QB’s with only 1 player going in the first round. One would assume 2014 has to be better. A team like the Jets needs to evaluate what they have as much as possible to prepare for the 2014 draft. While some will say that its crazy to think that 1 year of evaluation means anything in a league where most players are given 3 or 4 years before a decision is made, the point is not so much to make a final determination but to at least get an educated opinion on the player.

If Geno Smith fails as a starter it doesn’t mean his career is over by any stretch of the imagination. John Elway was awful as a rookie. So was Eli Manning. But sometimes a player as a rookie can be so good that an organization knows that they have a star on their hands such as Dan Marino or, to a lesser extent,  Ben Roethlisberger.  Playing the rookie gives you insights into how much they learn week to week. How they handle failures. How they handle their teammates and pointing blame in failure. Are they processing information better in week 16 than they were in week 4?

The new CBA has changed the whole evaluation process in my mind. Thru 2010 when you made an investment in the QB position you were stuck. Matt Stafford has cap charges in excess of $20 million. The Rams have made incredible investments in Sam Bradford. From a financial perspective a team could not draft a QB at the top of the draft and then afford to draft another QB in the 1^st or even second round. You were already allocating so much to the position, but in terms of cap and time, that putting another high priced player on the team that could ride the bench was not feasible.

Times have changed. The highest cap charge Andrew Luck will ever have on his rookie contract is just over $7 million. At the same point in their career Bradford would have cost around $13 million with more to go. Now while I would never expect any team to potentially abandon ship on the number 1 overall pick after just a year, financially a team can now do it.

An average starting QB in the NFL will likely earn around 12 million a year and a backup maybe 3. So teams are willing to allocate around $15 million to the position if you don’t have a superstar. Under the old system that simply means you get Bradford and a backup. Now?  Its up to the GM. You could grab Luck with the number 1 overall pick and then go out and grab next years top QB prospect as well if you wanted to. The allocation per year would be around $11.5 million for both players.  That’s still less than an average NFL starter with no upside plus his backup allocation.

When you are working with a lower level draft pick like Smith the money is even easier. Smith will average  around $1.25 million a year with the Jets. That’s nothing money in the NFL. But if the team falters with Sanchez and then decides to pass on a QB because they think they might have something in Smith the results can be catastrophic. You can not afford to pass on a QB prospect because you see some things in practice that look nice about a player. You need evidence. You need proof.

Teams such as the Jets and the Raiders are clearing out millions and millions in cap room for 2014. That money is going to be there to spend provided they feel they have the building blocks in place for the team. Smith could be a building block and your best chance to determine that comes from playing him. If he shows you enough despite a losing record you at least have a reasonable argument to now pass on the QB prospect in 2014 and sell that pick to the highest bidder. The rookie wage scales have made those picks valuable and it is a kings ransom for a highly regarded prospect.

If Smith doesn’t show the promise it changes your whole philosophy. You are going to draft the QB high. It doesn’t mean Geno is sunk, he simply competes the next year. If he makes the leap, you have a very tradable commodity sitting on the bench. If he fails to make the leap you have your guy ready  to go and your allocated dollars at the position are still well within reasonable limits.

Getting a feel for Smith will only strengthen your offseason planning. If Smith looks reasonable the Jets may decide that overspending is worth doing to quickly rebuild the team. Many free agents only have a shelf life of 2-3 years so you only want to go that route if you know you have a team ready to make the jump. If you are going with a rookie again you are going to temper your spending, looking maybe at a few young pieces coming off a team in bad cap shape or simply carrying the money over to the following year when you feel more comfortable with the QB situation. The Buffalo Bills should be following this same plan as they have major decisions to be made next year with high priced veterans.

Teams with a dim outlook for 2013 have no reason to look to the past to try to win an extra game or two in the present and dilute the decision making process in the future. This is the time to gain as much real information as possible about a potential QB of the future. Financially teams can keep swinging now at the most important position on the team.  Starting a player like Smith is only going to help you maximize your financial investments in the future.

The post The Benefits of Starting the Young QB appeared first on Over the Cap.

New Podcast covering the Dolphins, the Eagles and DeSean Jackson, plus some thoughts on which teams had the best and worst offseasons in terms of salary cap moves.

Download the Podcast

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Now that contracts have kind of slowed down I wanted to get back into doing positional valuations, this time with a focus on Running Backs. As is usual the raw data comes from Pro Football Focus with the analysis of numbers being somewhat unique. In general I want to grade running backs on 3 categories: Yards After Contact,  Player Generated Yards Before Contact, and Player Generated Yards Per Target.

Yards After Contact

I think this is pretty simple and straightforward. Once touched whatever yards a runner gains are essentially all due to his effort. The average in the league last year was around 2.5. Of runners with more than 50 attempts the best average was actually Justin Forsett, now of the Jaguars, with 4.11 YAC per attempt. Adrian Peterson was second at 3.93 and CJ Spiller third at 3.58.  The bottom three were Beanie Wells, Danny Woodhead, and Bilal Powell. This is the one pure PFF stat.

Player Generated Yards Before Contact

Running the rushing numbers for all teams we can determine just how many rushing yards are attributed to an offensive line keeping hands off a player. Last season the top 3 were the Chiefs (2.59), Titans(2.23), and Seahawks(2.15) while the Panthers pulled up the rear (0.98). I adjusted each teams numbers to exclude the specific runner in question which allows us to determine just how many yards before contact that player generates compared to all other runners on the team. In essence this tells us if a player is hitting the hole faster than others and determining yards before contact that are attributed to the runner as much as the up front blocking. The top 3 in this category were Chris Johnson (1.74), Jamaal Charles (1.36), and Maurice Jones-Drew (1.15). The worst three were Peyton Hills (-1.71), Rashad Jennings (-1.21), and Fred Jackson (-0.98).

Player Generated Yards Per Target

The average YPT last year among runners was about 6.19. With that in mind we can calculate how many additional yards a player generated on pass routes than an average running back. On a per catch basis the best players with at least 20 targets were Isaac Redman(6.0), Ahmad Bradshaw(3.7), and Danny Woodhead(3.42).

Analysis

By adding those numbers up we can calculate how many additional yards a player generated for his team last season as well as his average Yards Per Touch. It should come as no shock that Adrian Peterson comes in first with 1504.9 credited yards. Quite simply Peterson carried that team in a manner few other players could. He generated close to 600 yards of additional offense compared to a regular player. The next closest player was Alfred Morris at 1069.6 yards but he only generated around 185 yards of additional offense.

That being said the most interesting number might be that of the Bills CJ Spiller. Spiller only touched the ball 250 times last year but in doing so generated 1019 additional yards. At 4.08 YPT he actually rates even higher than Peterson, who was second at 3.88. This is based primarily on the fact that Spiller is a terrific receiver while Peterson is below average. On a Yards Per Run basis Peterson outpaced Spiller 4.55 to 4.35. While it is certainly questionable that Spiller can carry the ball as much as Peterson and continue to hold up those two are so far and away the best in the NFL that nobody should even debate anyone else at this point as being the best two backs.  Of course you cant pay Spiller at that level until he proves he can handle the ball as much as some of these other players, but he’s deadly.

When you look for “cross your fingers” high upside players, Mike Goodson and Justin Forsett come to mind. Both barely made the 50 touch minimum cutoff but both put up good numbers in limited showings.  Montell Owens and Isaac Redman were also surprising high finishers. Owens is a limited showing guy while Redman is strictly from his efforts in the passing game last year. I was also shocked o see DeAngelo Williams in the top 10. Maybe his team being so bad up front and his lack of usage has more to do with how poor his regular numbers are moreso than his play.

On the opposite end of the spectrum come names like Shonn Greene who was below average in every category but got tons of touches to create decent overall numbers. Still he was far better than Darren McFadden, a high priced bust on the Raiders who should be let go based on his numbers while Trent Richardson was an absolute disaster as a rookie averaging just 1.19 player generated yards per touch.

Financial Analysis

I wanted to create a matrix that would re-distribute the dollars that are currently being spent on the NFL players that made my 50 touch cutoff. To do this I added up all the APY values for the players in the current NFL season to create the “runners market”. For those players who are without deals I just assumed they would be replaced by a UDFA making an average of $495,000 per year. The average APY is around $2.692 million and total value just under $210 million.

Originally I just planned to determine a players total yards generated above the average and use that as his value above the baseline of $2.692 million. Great, except immediately I realized how badly that was overstating players values who got a lot of use (Greene, Richardson, Steven Jackson, etc…) to inflate their yards despite the fact that it was not productive use. Now that does not mean that you simply look at a category like Yards per Touch to determine value either. Some credit needs to be given for a player who is capable of shouldering a load even though the numbers are so bad. My gut feeling tells me that their numbers would likely be better if used less and maybe that is something for teams to consider when signing such players.  I tend to think that was the feeling the Titans had with Greene.

To best compensate I calculated the players yards and compared it to the expected yardage of an average player. If the ratio was below 1 I penalized the player. For example Richardson only gained about 70% of the expected yards so I considered his 379 yards to be equivalent to paying for 265 yards. With those adjustments in place I was able to redistribute all the league dollars based on performance above or below the average score.

The Results

Not surprisingly the numbers work out that the upper echelon of the market is hyperinflated, which is certainly no surprise. Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson are both position busters and could almost never do anything to justify the salary they receive. Peterson had arguably the best season a back has ever had but there are enough good backs and ultra low salaries that the value just is not there at the high end. Peterson’s salary under this formula would be just under $11.4 million, a 19.8% decrease from his current APY.

I have 15 backs in my actual salary database that make over $5 million a year and of those 15 this metric indicates that only CJ Spiller, Jamaal Charles, and Marshawn Lynch are underpaid. Most of the others are grossly overpaid. McFadden, Maurice Jones-Drew and Jonathan Stewart should have their salaries reduced by over 70% each. The big money jumpers would obviously be the rookies, with Alfred Morris leading the way giving you an $8 million or so performance on an APY less than 600K a year.  The Redskins are getting absolutely incredible production from Morris and fellow rookie QB RGIII for pennies which is how they survived last year despite major salary cap problems.

Of those players unsigned, Ahmad Bradshaw and Michael Turner should be able to give a team something significant and Felix Jones would also be an interesting player. In some ways its hard to believe they are not signed. In Turners case it probably needs to be the right situation in that he likely benefitted from an explosive offense making some situations a bit easier. Bradshaw and Jones have to have the injuries scaring teams off, Bradshaw in particular. Bradshaws numbers are all very good but he is injured a lot. It is difficult for teams to prepare when you have a player constantly coming in and out of the starting lineup. Still if he performs as he did last year he will give you around $5 million in value for probably the veteran’s minimum. If you make certain your offense is never in a position to over-rely on his presence you can mitigate the injury risk.

There were a handful of players whose projected salaries were so low that they don’t belong in the NFL anymore. They were Curtis Brinkley, Peyton Hills, Rashad Jennings, Ryan Williams, Shaun Draughn, Tashard Choice, and Toby Gerhart. Hillis was arguably the worst back in the NFL last season. Other players who would be close are Fred Jackson, whose projection probably does not meet his minimum salary, and Cedric Benson.

Here is the full list of players: All headers should be sortable. Please note that players like Bradshaw have their salary change based on a rookie FA salary.

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