Expected Contract Value Weekly Roundup

Rather than update all eight of the division-by-division posts, I will do a weekly roundup post where I compare the ECV forecasts with the transactions that are made (or not made) in real life.  In this week’s post, the focus will be on comparing the 2015 Expected Outcomes to the releases and non-releases, but after free agency begins I will provide the Expected Contract Value for new contracts as well.

In total, I ran the model on 479 players.  Of those 479 players, Expected Contract Value determined an Expected Outcome greater than 50% (meaning more likely to be kept under contract than released) for 314 players, and an Expected Outcome less than 50% (meaning more likely to be released than kept under contract) for 165 players.  Of those 314 players with Expected Outcomes  greater than 50%, 10 have been released so far.  Of those 165 players with Expected Outcomes less than 50%, 28 have been released so far.  We expect this number to grow significantly over the next couple of weeks.

Due to the probabilistic nature of the output, this isn’t really the best way to measure the results.  Eventually, we will break it down by probabilistic ranges.  So we will report the “accuracy” for the >90% players, the 80-89% players, the 70-79% players, etc.  The expectation is that the model will be most accurate for >90% players and <10% players, and least accurate for 50-59% players and 40-40% players, as the latter two ranges represent contract seasons for which the input variables point to a near toss-up.  Additionally, we note that the final results cannot be judged until after final roster cuts are made at the conclusion of the preseason, as contract considerations surely contribute to those decisions as well.

Correctly “Predicted” Releases:

-Todd Herremans (48.1%)

-Anthony Fasano (47.5%)

-Justin Blalock (46.3%)

-Brandon Gibson (44.7%)

-J.D. Walton (43.7%)

-Barry Cofield (42.7%)

-Keith Rivers (42.0%)

-Brad Jones (38.5%)

-Chris Johnson (36.6%)

-Kendall Langford (35.2%)

-Thomas DeCoud (29.3%)

-Lamarr Woodley (28.7%)

-AJ Hawk (28.3%)

-Mathias Kiwanuka (27.0%)

-Cortland Finnegan (26.3%)

-Harry Douglas (24.7%)

-James Casey (24.3%)

-Charlie Johnson (24.3%)

-Steven Jackson (23.5%)

-Chris Canty (22.1%)

-Donnie Avery (21.7%)

-Stephen Bowen (21.2%)

-Robert Geathers (19.7%)

-Darnell Dockett (18.3%)

-Cullen Jenkins (16.6%)

-Jarrett Johnson (12.5%)*

-Shaun Phillips (12.3%)

-Josh McCown (7.8%)

Incorrectly “Predicted” Non-Releases:

-Tyvon Branch (83.6%)

-Michael Oher (77.0%)

-David Wilson (75.3%)

-Brian Hartline (72.7%)

-Jacoby Jones (71.9%)

-LaRon Landry (58.0%)

-Reggie Bush (57.2%)

-DeAngelo Williams (54.8%)

-Ricky Jean-Francois (52.3%)

-Ted Ginn (52.1%)

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.

  • Herb Hovest

    You know what would be cool. If you compared people playing around with your calculator versus real life. For example, only 40% of the folks simulating the 2015 Dolphins cap cut Brian Hartline, but 65% cut Mike Wallace.