Expected Contract Value: Valuing Free Agent Contracts 3/12

I will update this post as we get more contract details, and at the end of the primary signing period I will review the Expected Contract Value results for each position group, but for now I will post these numbers without comment.

Ndamukong Suh
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$15,000100.0%$15,000$26,485,000
2016$15,00099.0%$14,850$23,485,000
2017$15,00094.8%$14,220$9,985,000
2018$17,000,00050.5%$8,585,000
2019$19,000,00034.0%$6,460,000
2020$18,360,00016.6%$3,047,760
Subtotal$18,136,830$59,955,000
Total$78,091,830

Pass Catchers:

Jeremy Maclin
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$250,000100.0%$250,000$12,750,000
2016$250,00097.8%$244,500$9,750,000
2017$10,000,00068.3%$6,830,000
2018$11,000,00040.0%$4,400,000
2019$11,000,00026.5%$2,915,000
Subtotal$14,639,500$22,500,000
Total$37,139,500
Randall Cobb
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$2,100,00099.6%$2,091,600$13,000,000
2016$5,900,00093.8%$5,534,200
2017$9,500,00068.6%$6,517,000
2018$9,500,00046.1%$4,379,500
Subtotal$18,522,300$13,000,000
Total$31,522,300
Julius Thomas
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$100,00099.6%$99,600$15,000,000
2016$100,00097.0%$97,000$6,000,000
2017$7,100,00065.6%$4,657,600
2018$8,600,00037.9%$3,259,400
2019$9,100,00026.0%$2,366,000
Subtotal$10,479,600$21,000,000
Total$31,479,600
Torrey Smith
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,250,00099.5%$1,243,750$8,750,000
2016$6,000,00091.4%$5,484,000
2017$8,000,00070.1%$5,608,000
2018$8,000,00045.5%$3,640,000
2019$8,000,00031.7%$2,536,000
Subtotal$18,511,750$8,750,000
Total$27,261,750

Running Backs:

Mark Ingram
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$100,00099.9%$99,900$4,600,000
2016$1,600,00095.3%$1,524,800$1,500,000
2017$3,600,00066.2%$2,383,200
2018$4,600,00040.2%$1,849,200
Subtotal$5,857,100$6,100,000
Total$11,957,100
Shane Vereen
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$100,00098.7%$98,700$4,750,000
2016$3,750,00074.1%$2,778,750
2017$3,750,00046.8%$1,755,000
Subtotal$4,632,450$4,750,000
Total$9,382,450
Frank Gore
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,000,00096.4%$964,000$3,500,000
2016$1,000,00067.2%$672,000$3,000,000
2017$3,500,00014.3%$500,500
Subtotal$2,136,500$6,500,000
Total$8,636,500

Offensive Lineman:

Bryan Bulaga
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$2,000,00099.3%$1,986,000$8,000,000
2016$4,000,00094.4%$3,776,000
2017$6,250,00074.3%$4,643,750
2018$6,750,00047.1%$3,179,250
2019$6,750,00032.0%$2,160,000
Subtotal$15,745,000$8,000,000
Total$23,745,000 (70.4%)
Orlando Franklin
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.9%$10,000,000
201697.2%$5,500,000
2017$6,000,00062.9%$3,774,000
2018$6,750,00034.4%$2,322,000
2019$7,250,00021.3%$1,544,250
Subtotal$7,640,250$15,500,000
Total$23,140,250
Derek Newton
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.7%$7,500,000
2016$2,250,00093.4%$2,101,500$2,500,000
2017$4,750,00067.9%$3,225,250
2018$4,750,00044.8%$2,128,000
2019$4,750,00032.6%$1,548,500
Subtotal$9,003,250$10,000,000
Total$19,003,250

Pass Rushers:

Jerry Hughes
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$150,00099.7%$149,550$11,625,000
2016$4,675,00097.0%$4,534,750$6,000,000
2017$7,550,00076.6%$5,783,300
2018$7,500,00048.3%$3,622,500
2019$7,500,00030.1%$2,257,500
Subtotal$16,347,600$17,625,000
Total$33,972,600
Brandon Graham
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.6%$9,000,000
201696.0%$4,000,000
2017$6,500,00047.8%$3,107,000
2018$6,500,00031.2%$2,028,000
Subtotal$5,135,000$13,000,000
Total$18,135,000

Defensive Backs:

Darrelle Revis
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.7%$16,000,000
201695.9%$17,000,000
2017$9,000,00064.8%$5,832,000$6,000,000
2018$11,000,00032.2%$3,542,000
2019$11,000,00015.3%$1,683,000
Subtotal$11,057,000$39,000,000
Total$50,057,000
Devin McCourty
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$500,00099.9%$499,500$17,500,000
2016$500,00098.1%$490,500$4,500,000
2017$7,000,00074.3%$5,201,000
2018$8,000,00042.5%$3,400,000
2019$9,500,00022.5%$2,137,500
Subtotal$11,728,500$22,000,000
Total$33,728,500
Kareem Jackson
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$250,00099.8%$249,500$14,000,000
2016$250,00096.5%$241,250$6,000,000
2017$6,750,00058.9%$3,975,750
2018$6,750,00037.2%$2,511,000
Subtotal$6,977,500$20,000,000
Total$26,977,500
Brandon Flowers
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.9%$10,250,000
201694.0%$7,750,000
2017$9,000,00038.4%$3,456,000
2018$9,400,00021.3%$2,002,200
Subtotal$5,458,200$18,000,000
Total$23,458,200
Buster Skrine
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.9%$6,500,000
201696.6%$6,500,000
2017$6,000,00053.7%$3,222,000
2018$6,000,00037.5%$2,250,000
Subtotal$5,472,000$13,000,000
Total$18,472,000
Cary Williams
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201596.6%$7,000,000
2016$5,000,00049.0%$2,450,000
2017$6,000,00021.7%$1,302,000
Subtotal$3,752,000$7,000,000
Total$10,752,000

Introduction Part 1:  Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2:  Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3:  Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4:  Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5:  Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.

  • McGeorge

    Bryce,
    This is an interesting way of looking at the contracts, and estimating how long they will last.
    I’m curious as to how Revis ages.
    Will he be worth 11MM/year in 4 years if the salary cap increases by 10%? 15%? 20%?

    As for Buster Skrine … UGH. I have to hope that Bowles can get something out of him.