Expected Contract Value Free Agency Summary: Linebackers

Quarterbacks  |  Running Backs

Wide Receivers  |  Tight Ends

Offensive Lineman  |  Pass Rushers

Defensive Lineman

PlayerNominal ValueECV% ExpectedECV/Year
David Harris$21,500,000$16,124,50075%$5,374,833
Dan Skuta$20,500,000$11,820,80058%$2,364,160
Curtis Lofton$18,000,000$11,291,45063%$3,763,817
JT Thomas$10,000,000$7,655,07577%$2,551,692
Justin Durant$10,800,000$6,283,10058%$2,094,367
Malcolm Smith$7,000,000$5,633,75080%$2,816,875
Josh Mauga$8,250,000$5,476,00066%$1,825,333
Jonathan Casillas$8,000,000$5,367,05067%$1,789,017
Akeem Ayers$6,000,000$4,413,75074%$2,206,875
Nate Irving$7,250,000$4,355,25060%$1,451,750
Andrew Gachkar$5,200,000$3,520,00068%$1,760,000
Akeem Dent$4,500,000$3,213,50071%$1,606,750
Jasper Brinkley$6,500,000$3,112,75048%$1,556,375
LB Total:66.1%
Global Total (122 Free Agents):67.5%
Notable One-Year Contracts:
Sean Weatherspoon:   $3,850,000 ($1,250,000)
 
PlayerFirst Likely Cut YearDead Money Remaining
David Harris2017 (17%)*$0**
Dan Skuta2018 (34%)$0
Curtis Lofton2017 (25%)$0
JT Thomas2017 (41%)$1,000,000
Justin Durant2017 (27%)$416,667
Malcolm Smith
Josh Mauga2017 (30%)$750,000
Jonathan Casillas2017 (34%)$666,667
Akeem Ayers2016 (47%)$0
Nate Irving2017 (33%)$250,000
Andrew Gachkar2016 (46%)$600,000
Akeem Dent2016 (43%)$375,000
Jasper Brinkley2016 (21%)$625,000
 

*Refers to the likelihood that the player will remain under contract in the given season.  This column displays the first season where the likelihood falls below 50%.

**Refers to the amount of dead money that the team will incur upon releasing the player in the season identified in the second column.

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.

  • McGeorge

    I think you are over valuing the future productivity of David Harris.
    Other than the Bills, would any team pay him even 5MM/year?