Expected Contract Value Calculations (3/16/2016)

Beginning the week of March 21st I will post positional reports based on Expected Contract Value with commentary and a depictions of the information that is easier to process, but for reference purposes I will continue to post the calculations on a rolling basis as they become available.

Lamar Miller, Eric Weddle, C.J. Anderson, Derrick Shelby, Casey Hayward, Derrick Johnson, Robert Ayers, Coty Sensabaugh, Chris Hogan, Jerrell Freeman, Akiam Hicks, Jon Ryan, Al Woods, and Eugene Sims.

Lamar Miller
Stated Value: $26,000,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueGuaranteed
201699.4%$8,500,000
201795.5%$5,500,000
2018$5,750,00073.1%$4,203,649
2019$6,250,00033.3%$2,080,723
Subtotal$6,284,372$14,000,000
Expected Contract Value:$20,284,372 (78%)
Eric Weddle
Stated Value: $26,000,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueGuaranteed
201695.5%$9,000,000
2017$4,000,00072.5%$2,900,189
2018$6,500,00031.1%$2,024,213
2019$6,250,00011.6%$754,978
Subtotal$5,679,380$9,000,000
Expected Contract Value:$14,679,380 (56%)
C.J. Anderson
Stated Value: $18,000,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueGuaranteed
2016$100,00099.2%$99,246$5,900,000
2017$3,000,00094.7%$2,840,036
2018$4,500,00073.3%$3,297,942
2019$4,500,00032.9%$1,481,306 
Subtotal$7,718,531$5,900,000
Expected Contract Value:$13,618,531
Derrick Shelby
Stated Value: $18,000,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueGuaranteed
201698.8%$6,000,000
2017$3,000,00091.4%$2,740,921
2018$4,500,00068.3%$3,071,256
2019$4,500,00040.0%$1,798,848
Subtotal$7,611,024$6,000,000
Expected Contract Value:$13,611,024 (76%)
Casey Hayward
Stated Value: $15,300,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueGuaranteed
201696.8%$6,800,000
2017$4,250,00073.0%$3,101,858
2018$4,250,00042.9%$1,824,400
Subtotal$4,926,258$6,800,000
Expected Contract Value:$11,726,258 (77%)
Derrick Johnson
Stated Value: $21,000,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueGuaranteed
2016$250,00088.9%$222,185$6,750,000
2017$4,000,00043.6%$1,742,661$2,000,000
2018$8,000,0009.3%$742,948
Subtotal$2,707,794$8,750,000
Expected Contract Value:$11,457,794 (55%)
Robert Ayers
Stated Value: $19,500,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueGuaranteed
201685.9%$7,500,000
2017$6,000,00041.5%$2,490,331
2018$6,000,00021.0%$1,260,633
Subtotal$3,750,963$7,500,000
Expected Contract Value:$11,250,963 (%)
Coty Sensabaugh
Stated Value: $14,500,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueGuaranteed
201696.3%$4,500,000
2017$4,000,00068.5%$2,740,487$1,000,000
2018$5,000,00036.3%$1,816,857
Subtotal$4,557,344$5,500,000
Expected Contract Value:$10,057,344
Chris Hogan
Stated Value: $12,000,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueGuaranteed
2016$500,00096.6%$483,077$5,000,000
2017$500,00082.4%$412,061$2,500,000
2018$4,000,00037.5%$1,498,663
Subtotal$2,393,801$7,500,000
Expected Contract Value:$9,893,801 (82%)
Jerrell Freeman
Stated Value: $12,000,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueGuaranteed
201694.1%$5,000,000
2017$2,500,00063.0%$1,573,952$1,000,000
2018$3,500,00028.4%$993,600
Subtotal$2,567,552$6,000,000
Expected Contract Value:$8,567,552 (71%)
Akiem Hicks
Stated Value: $10,000,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueGuaranteed
201696.5%$5,000,000
2017$5,000,00064.8%$3,238,013
Subtotal$3,238,013$5,000,000
Expected Contract Value:$8,238,013 (82%)
Jon Ryan
Stated Value: $10,000,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueGuaranteed
201697.4%$3,400,000
2017$1,000,00091.4%$914,307
2018$2,600,00066.3%$1,723,697
2019$3,000,00045.6%$1,367,000 
Subtotal$4,005,004$3,400,000
Expected Contract Value:$7,405,004 (74%)
Al Woods
Stated Value: $10,500,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueGuaranteed
2016$250,00095.0%$237,379$3,750,000
2017$3,000,00066.6%$1,996,666
2018$3,500,00032.2%$1,126,729
Subtotal$3,360,775$3,750,000
Expected Contract Value:$7,110,775 (68%)
Eugene Sims
Stated Value: $10,000,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueGuaranteed
201689.5%$3,000,000
2017$3,250,00048.2%$1,567,755
2018$3,750,00022.4%$840,585
Subtotal$2,408,340$3,000,000
Expected Contract Value:$5,408,340 (54%)
 

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nick Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate M&A associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail atbryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nick Barton is  a junior at the McDonough School Business at  Georgetown University.  He is majoring in Finance and Operations and Information Management. Nick currently interns with an NFL team . His prior work experience includes interning with CollegeSplits and Dynamic Sports Solutions, and working as a research assistant for the Center of Applied Research of the Apostolate.

  • mdr

    Is there an article that describes how to read this? If so, can you post a link?