Expected Contract Value Calculations (3/10/2016)

Mark Barron, Damon Harrison, Mitchell Schwartz, Tashaun Gipson, Chris Ivory, Travis Benjamin, DeMarco Murray, Jeremy Lane, Ladarious Green, Bobby Massie, Richard Matthews, Jaye Howard, Brandon Mebane and Haloti Ngata.

Mark Barron
Stated Value: $45,000,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201699.3%$10,000,000
2017$5,000,00092.5%$4,624,881$5,000,000
2018$9,000,00073.0%$6,572,644
2019$8,000,00056.0%$4,481,841
2020$8,000,00034.0%$2,718,543
Subtotal$18,397,909$15,000,000
Expected Contract Value:$33,397,909 (74%)
Damon Harrison
Stated Value: $46,250,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2016$250,00099.5%$248,700$12,750,000
2017$250,00095.1%$237,749$7,250,000
2018$8,000,00074.0%$5,922,832
2019$7,000,00055.1%$3,857,541
2020$9,250,00024.6%$2,276,033
Subtotal$12,542,855$20,000,000
Expected Contract Value:$32,542,855 (70%)
Mitchell Schwartz
Stated Value: $33,000,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2016$240,00099.5%$238,902$7,760,000
2017$600,00096.7%$580,287$4,900,000
2018$6,300,00078.5%$4,947,996
2019$6,600,00056.2%$3,706,431
2020$6,600,00032.2%$2,124,690
Subtotal$11,598,306$12,660,000
Expected Contract Value:$24,258,306 (74%)
Tashaun Gipson
Stated Value: $36,000,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2016$500,00099.4%$496,775$7,000,000
2017$500,00096.0%$480,010$5,000,000
2018$6,250,00076.4%$4,777,605
2019$8,250,00047.2%$3,897,836
2020$8,500,00025.7%$2,180,528
Subtotal$11,832,753$12,000,000
Expected Contract Value:$23,832,753 (66%)
Chris Ivory
Stated Value: $32,000,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2016$500,00098.3%$491,382$7,000,000
2017$2,000,00091.0%$1,820,139$3,000,000
2018$6,000,00065.0%$3,901,415
2019$6,000,00031.0%$1,859,673
2020$7,500,0008.9%$668,876
Subtotal$8,741,485$10,000,000
Expected Contract Value:$18,741,485 (59%)
Travis Benjamin
Stated Value: $24,000,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201699.7%$7,750,000
201795.3%$5,250,000
2018$5,750,00055.3%$3,177,157
2019$5,250,00037.5%$1,966,995
Subtotal$5,144,151$13,000,000
Expected Contract Value:$18,144,151 (76%)
DeMarco Murray
Stated Value: $25,500,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201697.7%$6,000,000
2017$3,000,00085.1%$2,766,733$3,000,000
2018$3,000,00048.2%$1,686,668$3,000,000
2019$6,750,00013.1%$885,973
Subtotal$5,339,373$12,000,000
Expected Contract Value:$17,339,373 (68%)
Jeremy Lane
Stated Value: $23,000,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201698.7%$7,000,000
2017$4,000,00090.3%$3,612,905
2018$6,000,00064.4%$3,862,685
2019$6,000,00036.1%$2,163,271
Subtotal$9,638,860$7,000,000
Expected Contract Value:$16,638,860 (72%)
Ladarius Green
Stated Value: $20,000,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2016$1,250,00097.3%$1,216,151$4,750,000
2017$5,000,00075.7%$3,782,976
2018$4,500,00059.5%$2,679,032
2019$4,500,00036.3%$1,633,645
Subtotal$9,311,804$4,750,000
Expected Contract Value:$14,061,804 (70%)
Bobby Massie
Stated Value: $18,000,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2016$350,00096.4%$337,508$6,500,000
2017$5,500,00075.3%$4,177,758
2018$5,600,00050.4%$2,822,403
Subtotal$7,337,669$6,500,000
Expected Contract Value:$13,837,669 (77%)
Rishard Matthews
Stated Value: $15,000,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2016$2,500,00090.4%$2,259,372$2,500,000
2017$5,000,00058.7%$2,932,555
2018$5,000,00036.8%$1,839,310
Subtotal$7,031,236$2,500,000
Expected Contract Value:$9,531,236 (64%)
Jaye Howard
Stated Value: $10,000,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2016$240,00096.1%$230,700$5,760,000
2017$4,000,00051.6%$2,064,138
Subtotal$2,294,838$5,760,000
Expected Contract Value:$8,054,838 (81%)
Brandon Mebane
Stated Value: $13,500,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201691.4%$5,500,000
2017$3,500,00048.4%$1,695,416
2018$4,500,00015.1%$679,879
Subtotal$2,375,294$5,500,000
Expected Contract Value:$7,875,294 (58%)
Haloti Ngata
Stated Value: $12,000,000
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2016$250,00081.4%$203,457$6,000,000
2017$5,750,00015.9%$911,717
Subtotal$7,115,175
Expected Contract Value:$7,115,175 (59%)
 

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nick Barton.


Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate M&A associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail atbryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nick Barton is  a junior at the McDonough School Business at  Georgetown University.  He is majoring in Finance and Operations and Information Management. Nick currently interns with an NFL team . His prior work experience includes interning with CollegeSplits and Dynamic Sports Solutions, and working as a research assistant for the Center of Applied Research of the Apostolate.